Archive
OUR 2012/2013 BOWL GAME PREVIEWS AND HANDICAPPING RESOURCES BOOKMARKED – THROUGH 01/03/2013
We thought it might be useful to provide the bookmarked direct links to our 2012/2013 Bowl Game Previews and other Handicapping Resources.
As new entries come online we will be updating the information found below.
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| GAME | |
| DATE | BOWL NAME LINK |
| 12/15/2012 | NEW MEXICO BOWL |
| 12/15/2012 | FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL |
| 12/20/2012 | POINSETTIA BOWL |
| 12/21/2012 | BEEF O BRADY’S BOWL |
| 12/22/2012 | MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS |
| 12/22/2012 | NEW ORLEANS BOWL |
| 12/24/2012 | HAWAII BOWL |
| 12/26/2012 | LITTLE CAESARS BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | MILITARY BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | BELK BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | HOLIDAY BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | INDEPENDENCE BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | RUSSELL ATHLETIC |
| 12/28/2012 | MEINKE CAR CARE TEXAS BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ARMED FORCES BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | PINSTRIPE BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ALAMO BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | MUSIC CITY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | SUN BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | LIBERTY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | CHICK FIL-A BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | HEART OF DALLAS BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | GATOR BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | OUTBACK BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | CAPITAL ONE BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | ROSE BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | ORANGE BOWL |
| 1/2/2013 | SUGAR BOWL |
| 1/3/2013 | FIESTA BOWL |
| 1/4/2013 | COTTON BOWL |
| 1/5/2013 | COMPASS BOWL |
| 1/6/2013 | GO DADDY.COM BOWL |
| 1/7/2013 | BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP |
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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.
If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats
OUR 2012/2013 BOWL GAME PREVIEWS AND HANDICAPPING RESOURCES BOOKMARKED – THROUGH 12/31/2012
We thought it might be useful to provide the bookmarked direct links to our 2012/2013 Bowl Game Previews and other Handicapping Resources.
As new entries come online we will be updating the information found below.
*
*
| GAME | |
| DATE | BOWL NAME LINK |
| 12/15/2012 | NEW MEXICO BOWL |
| 12/15/2012 | FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL |
| 12/20/2012 | POINSETTIA BOWL |
| 12/21/2012 | BEEF O BRADY’S BOWL |
| 12/22/2012 | MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS |
| 12/22/2012 | NEW ORLEANS BOWL |
| 12/24/2012 | HAWAII BOWL |
| 12/26/2012 | LITTLE CAESARS BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | MILITARY BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | BELK BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | HOLIDAY BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | INDEPENDENCE BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | RUSSELL ATHLETIC |
| 12/28/2012 | MEINKE CAR CARE TEXAS BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ARMED FORCES BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | PINSTRIPE BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ALAMO BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | MUSIC CITY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | SUN BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | LIBERTY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | CHICK FIL-A BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | HEART OF DALLAS BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | GATOR BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | OUTBACK BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | CAPITAL ONE BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | ROSE BOWL |
| 1/1/2013 | ORANGE BOWL |
| 1/2/2013 | SUGAR BOWL |
| 1/3/2013 | FIESTA BOWL |
| 1/4/2013 | COTTON BOWL |
| 1/5/2013 | COMPASS BOWL |
| 1/6/2013 | GO DADDY.COM BOWL |
| 1/7/2013 | BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP |
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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.
If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats
OUR 2012/2013 BOWL GAME PREVIEWS AND HANDICAPPING RESOURCES BOOKMARKED – THROUGH 12/28/2012
We thought it might be useful to provide the bookmarked direct links to our 2012/2013 Bowl Game Previews and other Handicapping Resources.
As new entries come online we will be updating the information found below.
*
*
| GAME | |
| DATE | BOWL NAME LINK |
| 12/15/2012 | NEW MEXICO BOWL |
| 12/15/2012 | FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL |
| 12/20/2012 | POINSETTIA BOWL |
| 12/21/2012 | BEEF O BRADY’S BOWL |
| 12/22/2012 | MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS |
| 12/22/2012 | NEW ORLEANS BOWL |
| 12/24/2012 | HAWAII BOWL |
| 12/26/2012 | LITTLE CAESARS BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | MILITARY BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | BELK BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | HOLIDAY BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | INDEPENDENCE BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | RUSSELL ATHLETIC |
| 12/28/2012 | MEINKE CAR CARE TEXAS BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ARMED FORCES BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | PINSTRIPE BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ALAMO BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | MUSIC CITY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | SUN BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | LIBERTY BOWL |
| 12/31/2012 | CHICK FIL-A BOWL |
*
We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.
If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats
OUR 2012/2013 BOWL GAME PREVIEWS AND HANDICAPPING RESOURCES BOOKMARKED
We thought it might be useful to provide the bookmarked direct links to our 2012/2013 Bowl Game Previews and other Handicapping Resources.
As new entries come online we will be updating the information found below.
*
*
| GAME | |
| DATE | BOWL NAME LINK |
| 12/15/2012 | NEW MEXICO BOWL |
| 12/15/2012 | FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL |
| 12/20/2012 | POINSETTIA BOWL |
| 12/21/2012 | BEEF O BRADY’S BOWL |
| 12/22/2012 | MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS |
| 12/22/2012 | NEW ORLEANS BOWL |
| 12/24/2012 | HAWAII BOWL |
| 12/26/2012 | LITTLE CAESARS BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | MILITARY BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | BELK BOWL |
| 12/27/2012 | HOLIDAY BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | INDEPENDENCE BOWL |
| 12/28/2012 | RUSSELL ATHLETIC |
| 12/28/2012 | MEINKE CAR CARE TEXAS BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ARMED FORCES BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | PINSTRIPE BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | ALAMO BOWL |
| 12/29/2012 | BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL |
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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.
If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats
2012/2013 Bowl Games – Every Meaningful and Meaningless Handicapping Stat You Ever Wanted To Know
The 2012/2013 Bowl Season is upon us and we have put together a bunch of Handicapping Stats has they relate to all the individual Bowl Games as well as the past performance of all teams playing.
Below you will find the following 4 spreadsheets:
1. Bowl_Games – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years of Bowl Games
2. Team_Detail – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years By Team as Favorites/Underdogs
3. Line_Total – ATS Result by Line and Total Result by Total for last 5 years of Bowl data
4. Conf_Vs_Conf – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results By Conference vs Conference for last 5 years of Bowl data
Please note for all data where Bowl names have changed the data has been aggregated to the current Bowl name, and that Conference realignment may make some data appear inaccurate.
Bowl_Games – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years of Bowl Games
Tab 1 – Alpha By Bowl Game Name
Tab 2 – By Straight Up Favorite Win %
Tab 3 – By GreyMatterStats Straight Up Projected Win %
Tab 4 – By ATS Favorite Win %
Tab 5 – By GreyMatterStats ATS Projected Win %
Tab 6 – By Total Over Win %
Tab 7 – By GreyMatterStats Total Projected Win %
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NCAAF – HANDICAPPING STATS – THROUGH WEEK 02
The information presented here is inclusive of all games played through Week 02 of the College Football Season.
The data provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current season and historically across many variables.
In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:
- BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
- BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
- ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
- ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
- TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
- CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
- LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE Y WEEK
- ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
- CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
- TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
- TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL
CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SPREADSHEET
Please note the following regarding the data:
For the spreadsheets BY_GAME_TYPE_STD and BY_AWAY_HOME_STD:
- The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
- When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
- When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
- We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
- In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
- All Pushes have been omitted
For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK:
- The data is displayed in terms of how often the Line/Total move was correct for each line item
- the value of -99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved down
- the value of 99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved up
For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK:
- The data is displayed frequencies indicating how far from the Closing Line/Total the Final Outcomes were – More accurate Closing Lines/Totals would display as a cluster around the center value of 0(zero), while data painted further from either side of 0(zero) would indicate less accurate Lines/Totals
On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window
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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.
If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats
Twitter Question – In College Football, How Do Ranked Road Dogs Do When Facing Unranked Home Favorites?
We got a question via Twitter from @EltLearn33 who asked, in college football, how do ranked road dogs do when facing unranked home favorites?
To answer this question we used five years of our NCAAF history which included the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and the 2011/2012 seasons. It is important to note that the rankings we use are our own internal calculations that may or may not , sync up with nationally published ranking data for the given time frames.
The way the information lays out makes it impractical to create a screen capture, so please visit the embedded spreadsheet below for the full breakdown of the data by Season, by Week, and by Conference Match-Up.
Some miscellaneous notes and observations:
- The selection criteria only yielded 64 games which is a very small sample size for analysis purposes, so please keep this in mind as you review the findings
- In 7 of the 64 games the closing line was a pick. Within our system, when a game is a pick the home team is our listed favorite
- In cases such as the PAC-12, which was known as the PAC-10 during part of our history, we use the current name across all time frames
- When analyzing the ML and ATS data by Season no note worthy observations were made other than that for the 2010/2011 Season Ranked Away Dogs were 7-1 ATS
- For all games in all Seasons the Under has been 58.7% in the 64 games in this role
- When analyzing the data by Week no note worthy observations were made
- When analyzing the data by Conference Match-Ups Ranked Away Dogs playing within their Conference from the BIG-10, BIG-12, and the SEC were found to have success both ATS and straight up
- Games played between BIG-10 teams have gone Under the Total 7 times with only 1 Over and a Push
- Games played between BIG-12 teams have gone Under the Total 6 times with only 2 Overs
- Games played between SEC teams have gone Over the Total 8 times with only 2 Unders
- Points do not typically come into play in these games; Excluding 3 ATS pushes in only 5 of 61 games did points enter in to the ATS result
Twitter Question – Do Tired Arms Lead To More Overs As We Approach The All-Star Break?
We got a question via Twitter from @JoeDellAnno who asked, how do MLB totals fare the week before the All-Star Game with the theory being that the bullpens are tired?
To answer this question we went to our MLB history for 2009, 2010, 2011, and season to date for 2012 and extracted data in three groups.
- Ten Days Prior To The All-Star Break
- Last Series Before The All-Star Break
- First Half Of An MLB Season – Used as a baseline to compare the findings from the other time-frames
In addition to analyzing the totals, we also took a look to see if there was anything of interest regarding money line or run line data for the selected time-frames.
The screenshot below presents the overall findings, which can also be found in the spreadsheet embedded below.
Twitter Question – How Have Overall #1 QB Draft Picks That Started As Rookies Preformed Against The ML/ATS/Totals?
We are starting a new series where we answer questions that our Twitter followers have posed.
So if there are any handicapping questions that you may have related to the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, or MLB please feel free to pass them along, and we would be happy to provide answers if we can.
Our first question comes from @TheHandicaper who asked if we had any data that shows how overall number one draft picks that were installed as rookie starters have preformed straight up, ATS, and against the totals in the NFL.
It’s an interesting question, and with Andrew Luck set to take the reigns for Indianapolis, it is something at least worth a look at when handicapping the Colts this season.
For the purposes of our analysis we limited the possible quarterbacks that may fit the selection criteria to a 5-year window which coincides with the rolling history that we keep available on our site.
In that five year window three quarterbacks were chosen number one overall and started as a rookie for their teams, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Matthew Stafford.
The screenshots below present the overall findings when analyzing the performance of the quarterbacks listed above in their rookie seasons. For more detail, including quarterback specific data, please see the spreadsheet embedded below.
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Matthew Stafford
Some miscellaneous notes and observations:
- Stafford only started 10 games his rookie season, and only the data for the games he started is included for the Lions
- Overall this very small sample group deviates only slightly from what we have historically seen from all NFL games in terms of ML, ATS, and Total outcomes
- All three quarterbacks lost their first two games straight up
- The biggest potential advantage that we see when analyzing the rookie year history for this group appears to be going against them straight up as road dogs. In that role this group was a collective 2-15 or 11.8%. Laying the chalk with the money line favorites is these games would have netted a $1070 profit based on laying X to win $100 wages.
Grey Matter Stats 