Home > 2012 Season, 2012/2013 Season, NFL, Trends, Twitter Question, User Questions > Twitter Question – How Have Overall #1 QB Draft Picks That Started As Rookies Preformed Against The ML/ATS/Totals?

Twitter Question – How Have Overall #1 QB Draft Picks That Started As Rookies Preformed Against The ML/ATS/Totals?

We are starting a new series where we answer questions that our Twitter followers have posed.

So if there are any handicapping questions that you may have related to the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, or MLB please feel free to pass them along, and we would be happy to provide answers if we can.

Our first question comes from @TheHandicaper who asked if we had any data that shows how overall number one draft picks that were installed as rookie starters have preformed straight up, ATS, and against the totals in the NFL.

It’s an interesting question, and with Andrew Luck set to take the reigns for Indianapolis, it is something at least worth a look at when handicapping the Colts this season.

For the purposes of our analysis we limited the possible quarterbacks that may fit the selection criteria to a 5-year window which coincides with the rolling history that we keep available on our site.

In that five year window three quarterbacks were chosen number one overall and started as a rookie for their teams, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Matthew Stafford.

The screenshots below present the overall findings when analyzing the performance of the quarterbacks listed above in their rookie seasons.  For more detail, including quarterback specific data, please see the spreadsheet embedded below.

Cam Newton

Sam Bradford

Matthew Stafford

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

  • Stafford only started 10 games his rookie season, and only the data for the games he started is included for the Lions
  • Overall this very small sample group deviates only slightly from what we have historically seen from all NFL games in terms of ML, ATS, and Total outcomes
  • All three quarterbacks lost their first two games straight up
  • The biggest potential advantage that we see when analyzing the rookie year history for this group appears to be going against them straight up as road dogs.  In that role this group was a collective 2-15 or 11.8%.  Laying the chalk with the money line favorites is these games would have netted a $1070 profit based on laying X to win $100 wages.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  1. OVERALL– PROJECTED WIN TOTALS BY TEAM
  2. CAM NEWTOW – DETAIL LEVEL DATA
  3. SAM BRADFORD – DETAIL LEVEL DATA
  4. MATTHEW STAFFORD – DETAIL LEVEL DATA
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats

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