NCAAF – HANDICAPPING STATS – THROUGH WEEK 02

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through Week 02 of the College Football Season.

The data provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current season and historically across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

• BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
• BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
• ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
• LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE Y WEEK
• ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
• CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
• TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
• TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SPREADSHEET

Please note the following regarding the data:

For the spreadsheets BY_GAME_TYPE_STD and BY_AWAY_HOME_STD:

• The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
• When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
• When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
• We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
• In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
• All Pushes have been omitted

For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK:

• The data is displayed in terms of how often the Line/Total move was correct for each line item
• the value of -99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved down
• the value of 99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved up

For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK:

• The data is displayed frequencies indicating how far from the Closing Line/Total the Final Outcomes were – More accurate Closing Lines/Totals would display as a cluster around the center value of 0(zero), while data painted further from either side of 0(zero) would indicate less accurate Lines/Totals

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

NFL – HANDICAPPING STATS – WEEK 01 PREVIEW/REVIEW

Each NFL week we will present a review of the prior week’s data as well as provide some historical information for the coming week.

The data provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current season and historically across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

• BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
• BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
• ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
• CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
• LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE Y WEEK
• ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
• CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
• TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
• TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SPREADSHEET

Twitter Question – In College Football, How Do Ranked Road Dogs Do When Facing Unranked Home Favorites?

We got a question via Twitter from @EltLearn33 who asked, in college football, how do ranked road dogs do when facing unranked home favorites?

To answer this question we used five years of our NCAAF history which included the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and the 2011/2012 seasons.  It is important to note that the rankings we use are our own internal calculations that may or may not , sync up with nationally published ranking data for the given time frames.

The way the information lays out makes it impractical to create a screen capture, so please visit the embedded spreadsheet below for the full breakdown of the data by Season, by Week, and by Conference Match-Up.

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

• The selection criteria only yielded 64 games which is a very small sample size for analysis purposes, so please keep this in mind as you review the findings
• In 7 of the 64 games the closing line was a pick. Within our system, when a game is a pick the home team is our listed favorite
• In cases such as the PAC-12, which was known as the PAC-10 during part of our history, we use the current name across all time frames
• When analyzing the ML and ATS data by Season no note worthy observations were made other than that for the 2010/2011 Season Ranked Away Dogs were 7-1 ATS
• For all games in all Seasons the Under has been 58.7% in the 64 games in this role
• When analyzing the data by Week no note worthy observations were made
• When analyzing the data by Conference Match-Ups Ranked Away Dogs playing within their Conference from the BIG-10, BIG-12, and the SEC were found to have success both ATS and straight up
• Games played between BIG-10 teams have gone Under the Total 7 times with only 1 Over and a Push
• Games played between BIG-12 teams have gone Under the Total 6 times with only 2 Overs
• Games played between SEC teams have gone Over the Total 8 times with only 2 Unders
• Points do not typically come into play in these games; Excluding 3 ATS pushes in only 5 of 61 games did points enter in to the ATS result