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Posts Tagged ‘Dog’

2012/2013 Bowl Games – Every Meaningful and Meaningless Handicapping Stat You Ever Wanted To Know

December 13, 2012 Leave a comment

The 2012/2013 Bowl Season is upon us and we have put together a bunch of Handicapping Stats has they relate to all the individual Bowl Games as well as the past performance of all teams playing.

Below you will find the following 4 spreadsheets:

1. Bowl_Games – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years of Bowl Games

2. Team_Detail – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years By Team as Favorites/Underdogs

3. Line_Total – ATS Result by Line and Total Result by Total for last 5 years of Bowl data

4. Conf_Vs_Conf – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results By Conference vs Conference for last 5 years of Bowl data

Please note for all data where Bowl names have changed the data has been aggregated to the current Bowl name, and that Conference realignment may make some data appear inaccurate.

Bowl_Games – ML/ATS/Total and Projected Results for last 5 years of Bowl Games

Tab 1 – Alpha By Bowl Game Name

Tab 2 – By Straight Up Favorite Win %

Tab 3 – By GreyMatterStats Straight Up Projected Win %

Tab 4 – By ATS Favorite Win %

Tab 5 – By GreyMatterStats ATS Projected Win %

Tab 6 – By Total Over Win %

Tab 7 – By GreyMatterStats Total Projected Win %

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Read more…

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Twitter Question – In College Football, How Do Ranked Road Dogs Do When Facing Unranked Home Favorites?

July 19, 2012 1 comment

We got a question via Twitter from @EltLearn33 who asked, in college football, how do ranked road dogs do when facing unranked home favorites?

To answer this question we used five years of our NCAAF history which included the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and the 2011/2012 seasons.  It is important to note that the rankings we use are our own internal calculations that may or may not , sync up with nationally published ranking data for the given time frames.

The way the information lays out makes it impractical to create a screen capture, so please visit the embedded spreadsheet below for the full breakdown of the data by Season, by Week, and by Conference Match-Up.

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

  • The selection criteria only yielded 64 games which is a very small sample size for analysis purposes, so please keep this in mind as you review the findings
  • In 7 of the 64 games the closing line was a pick. Within our system, when a game is a pick the home team is our listed favorite
  • In cases such as the PAC-12, which was known as the PAC-10 during part of our history, we use the current name across all time frames
  • When analyzing the ML and ATS data by Season no note worthy observations were made other than that for the 2010/2011 Season Ranked Away Dogs were 7-1 ATS
  • For all games in all Seasons the Under has been 58.7% in the 64 games in this role
  • When analyzing the data by Week no note worthy observations were made
  • When analyzing the data by Conference Match-Ups Ranked Away Dogs playing within their Conference from the BIG-10, BIG-12, and the SEC were found to have success both ATS and straight up
  • Games played between BIG-10 teams have gone Under the Total 7 times with only 1 Over and a Push
  • Games played between BIG-12 teams have gone Under the Total 6 times with only 2 Overs
  • Games played between SEC teams have gone Over the Total 8 times with only 2 Unders
  • Points do not typically come into play in these games; Excluding 3 ATS pushes in only 5 of 61 games did points enter in to the ATS result

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Daily Favorite/Dog & Over/Under Counts For All Leagues

January 30, 2012 Leave a comment

Each morning we will updating this workbook with the prior days counts by League as follows:

  • Money Line Record and Win Percent from the perspective of  the Favorite
  • ATS Record and Win Percent from the perspective of  the Favorite
  • Total Record and Win Percent from the perspective of  the Over

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. MLB – DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASON TO DATE COUNTS FOR BASEBALL
  2. NBA – DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASON TO DATE COUNTS FOR PROFESSIONAL BASKETBALL
  3. NCAAB – DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASON TO DATE COUNTS FOR COLLEGE BASKETBALL
  4. NFL – DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASON TO DATE COUNTS FOR PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL
  5. NCAAF – DAILY, WEEKLY, AND SEASON TO DATE COUNTS FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL

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NBA – A Deeper Look

January 23, 2012 Leave a comment

With the NBA season at the one-quarter mark, we thought we’d use the S.H.A.R.P. section and the Team Profiles section of the website to take a deeper look at some of the line and total trends making news early on. Here are a few interesting tidbits we found…

– While favorites are hitting overall 56%+ ATS this season, small favorites (1, 1.5 or 2pts) are covering at an absurd 72% clip.
– Unders may be hitting more often than not overall, but for totals of 180 or lower, the over is a good bet…hitting 70% so far this season.
– The favorite and the under are both strong plays when the away team is playing their 4th straight road game (Fav and Under are each hitting 69% in games meeting the above criteria).
– The 76ers and the Nuggets are the best ATS bets so far this season – they’ve covered in 75% and 71% of their games respectively.
– Conversely, the New York Knicks are the undisputed cellar-dwellers of the cover this season, posting an abysmal 19% ATS mark.
– Mavericks, Suns, and Timberwolves games are generally a good bet to the under…all three have gone under the total in 70%+ of their games.
– Several teams exhibit strong line or total tilts when viewed from a Home/Away angle. Of note…

o Unders are 8-1 in Celtics home games, but 2-4 on the road.
o The over is 6-0 in Warriors away games, but only 2-6 in home games.
o The under is 5-0 in Pacers home games.
o Grizzlies home games are 7-1 to the over, but away games are 1-6 to the over.
o The Wizards do not have a road win.
o The Lakers are 9-2 straight up at home but 1-5 on the road.
o The Spurs are 9-1 straight up at home but also only 1-5 on the road.

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About The Last Five Years Of NFL Conference Championship Games

January 20, 2012 Leave a comment

The embedded Excel file contains several frequencies that break down the last five years of NFL Conference Championship Games.

Please keep in mind that this five year history is comprised of only 10 games, so the sample size is very low.

Never the less, we find it interesting to review this kind of data, and hope you find it informative as well.

BY ROLE

Read more…

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About The Last Five Years Of NFL Divisional Playoff Games

January 14, 2012 Leave a comment

The embedded Excel file contains several frequencies that break down the last five years of NFL Divisional Playoff Games.

Please keep in mind that this five year history is comprised of only 20 games, so the sample size is relatively low.

It is worth noting that in all 20 games in this history, the Home team was the Favorite.  In this season’s round of Divisional Playoff Games, there is one instance of a Road Favorite, with the Saints being -3.5 against the 49ers.

Some observations on the data:

  • Overall ML has been 10 Favorites and 10 Dogs
  • Overall ATS the Dog has been 13-7 or 65.0%
  • Overall Totals have been 10 Over and 10 Under
  • Dogs in the Divisional Games that were on the Road for the Wildcard Round were 6-3 or 66.7%, against the ML, 7-2 ATS or 77.8%, and in those games the Under was  6-3 or 66.7%
  • Dogs in the Divisional Games that Favorites for the Wildcard Round were 9-3 or 75.0%, ATS
  • In the Divisional Games with Teams whose Wildcard Round games went Over, the Under was 6-3 or 66.7%
  • In the Divisional Games with Teams whose Wildcard Round games went Under, the Over was 7-4 or 63.6%
  • In the Divisional Games where the Line has been greater than 7, the Dog is 6-2 or 75.0%
  • In the Divisional Games 40% of the outcomes have been a correlated result of Dog and Under
  • In the Divisional Games Line Moves Down have been Correct 5 of 6 games or,  83.3% of the time
  • In the Divisional Games Line Moves Up have only been Correct 2 of 6 games or,  33.3% of the time
  • In the Divisional Games Overall All Total Moves been Correct 11 of 17 games or,  64.7% of the time

BY ROLE

Read more…

NFL Five Year Playoff History – Broken Down By Team, Game Type, Line Movement, Line History, and Total History

The spreadsheet below offers a snapshot of many different historic data views for the upcoming NFL playoffs.

The data is presented at the team level, game type level, line movement level, and graphs and raw data for the closing line and closing total results.

Please keep in mind that the analysis is for a five year history only, so the sample size is relatively small.

That said, we think you will still find the information useful.

Some observations:

  • 4 teams have no playoff history in our five year window
  • New England while 5-3 SU is on 2-6 ATS
  • The Giants while 3-3 SU are 5-1 ATS * Strongest ATS percentage of all playoff teams * Also the Giants are 4-0 ATS on the road 0-1 ATS at home
  • The Steelers are 7-0 to the Over
  • The Ravens are 3-0 to the Under as a Favorite  Read more…
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