Home > 2012 Season, 2012/2013 Season, ncaaf, ncaaf trends, Trends, Twitter Question, User Questions > Twitter Question – In College Football, How Do Ranked Road Dogs Do When Facing Unranked Home Favorites?

Twitter Question – In College Football, How Do Ranked Road Dogs Do When Facing Unranked Home Favorites?

We got a question via Twitter from @EltLearn33 who asked, in college football, how do ranked road dogs do when facing unranked home favorites?

To answer this question we used five years of our NCAAF history which included the 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and the 2011/2012 seasons.  It is important to note that the rankings we use are our own internal calculations that may or may not , sync up with nationally published ranking data for the given time frames.

The way the information lays out makes it impractical to create a screen capture, so please visit the embedded spreadsheet below for the full breakdown of the data by Season, by Week, and by Conference Match-Up.

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

  • The selection criteria only yielded 64 games which is a very small sample size for analysis purposes, so please keep this in mind as you review the findings
  • In 7 of the 64 games the closing line was a pick. Within our system, when a game is a pick the home team is our listed favorite
  • In cases such as the PAC-12, which was known as the PAC-10 during part of our history, we use the current name across all time frames
  • When analyzing the ML and ATS data by Season no note worthy observations were made other than that for the 2010/2011 Season Ranked Away Dogs were 7-1 ATS
  • For all games in all Seasons the Under has been 58.7% in the 64 games in this role
  • When analyzing the data by Week no note worthy observations were made
  • When analyzing the data by Conference Match-Ups Ranked Away Dogs playing within their Conference from the BIG-10, BIG-12, and the SEC were found to have success both ATS and straight up
  • Games played between BIG-10 teams have gone Under the Total 7 times with only 1 Over and a Push
  • Games played between BIG-12 teams have gone Under the Total 6 times with only 2 Overs
  • Games played between SEC teams have gone Over the Total 8 times with only 2 Unders
  • Points do not typically come into play in these games; Excluding 3 ATS pushes in only 5 of 61 games did points enter in to the ATS result

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_SEASON – GAMES FOR THE DEFINED SELECTION CRITERIA ARRANGED BY SEASON
  2. BY_WEEK – GAMES FOR THE DEFINED SELECTION CRITERIA ARRANGED BY WEEK
  3. BY_CONFERENCE – GAMES FOR THE DEFINED SELECTION CRITERIA ARRANGED BY CONFERENCE MATCH-UP

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats

Advertisements
  1. Dave
    July 28, 2012 at 9:53 pm

    I have the home team at 82-101 ATS since 1990, using AP as the ranking source.

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: