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NFL – An Historic Analysis Of Q3 ML/ATS/Total Performance By Team

November 6, 2012 Leave a comment

We posted data through Q2 about a month ago, and thought it was worth continuing into Q3.

You can find the original post here.

To recap, we have tracked  how teams have done comparatively across different time frames with in a season.

The time-frames are defined as follows for NFL:

  • Weeks 01-04 are Q1
  • Weeks 05-08 are Q2
  • Weeks 09-12 are Q3
  • Weeks 13-17 are Q4

The analysis of the NFL Q3 history indicates there are several teams whose ML/ATS/Total performances have been measurably different as compared to other time frames.

For example, the Saints have historically been a very strong Q3 team ATS covering 64.7%, 17.3% over their historic Q2 performance and 12.3% over their historic baseline performance.

We say this all the time,  but we want to be absolutely clear that any of these trends in a vacuum are no reason in and of itself to play a side or total.  This data should be used as just one more piece of information in your handicapping.

Some of this we said in our original post but it bears repeating:

  • There has been a noteworthy consistency to this data for several teams, and we believe it is worth your while to familiarize yourself with the information.
  • There are a lot of arguments that can be made as to why these trends occur for some teams from quarter to quarter over time.  Coaching philosophies, scheduling, QB’s that start slow, and odds-makers’ adjustments all play apart in the fluctuations we see between time-frames for some of the teams.
  • When using this reference it is important that you keep in mind situations such as coaching or impact roster changes that would render historic data much less useful.  Obviously for teams that have enjoyed coaching and player continuity, the data should tend to hold more true.
  •  The baseline represents all results for a given team across all time-frames.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets for both the NFL and NCAAF:

  • ML_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ML WIN % BY TEAM
  • ATS_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ATS WIN % BY TEAM
  • TOTAL_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – TOTAL OVER WIN % BY TEAM
  • SUMMARY_HISTORY_Q1-Q3 – ML/ATS/TOTAL COUNTS BY FAV/OVER FOR Q1, Q2, Q3, AND A BASELINE PERIODS

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • THE DATA REPRESENTS A 5 YEAR HISTORY AND IS GROUPED BY QUARTER
  • ML AND ATS PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OR WIN %
  • TOTAL PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF GAMES THAT WENT OVER
  • THE BASELINE PERIOD REPRESENTS ALL DATA FOR ALL TIME-FRAMES BY TEAM
  • For Q3 any Historic percentages >= 60% are highlighted in green
  • For Q3, any Historic – Baseline differences of >= 10% are highlighted in green and any <=-10% in red
  • For Q3 as compared to Q2, any differences of >= 20% are highlighted in green and <=20% in red
  • Under the column “Best Quarter” is Q3 it is highlighted in green, and if “Worst Quarter” highlighted in red
  • ALL PUSHES HAVE BEEN OMITTED

 

NFL DATA


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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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College Football – An Historic Analysis Of Q3 ML/ATS/Total Performance By Team

November 6, 2012 2 comments

We posted data through Q2 about a month ago, and thought it was worth continuing into Q3.

You can find the original post here.

To recap, we have tracked  how teams have done comparatively across different time frames with in a season.

The time-frames are defined as follows for NCAAF:

  • Weeks 01-04 are Q1
  • Weeks 05-08 are Q2
  • Weeks 09-12 are Q3
  • Weeks 13-Through the Bowl Games are Q4

The analysis of the Q3 history in College Football indicates there are several teams whose ML/ATS/Total performances have been measurably different as compared to other time frames.

For example, Ole Miss has historically been a very strong Q2 team ATS covering 66.7%, but for Q3 their ATS cover rate drops dramatically to just 37.5%.  The current Rebel team has held true to this trend and are undefeated Q2 season-to-date Q2 ATS. We will be using this information to look to make a case to fade Ole Miss ATS as part of our overall handicapping process.

We say this all the time,  but we want to be absolutely clear that any of these trends in a vacuum are no reason in and of itself to play a side or total.  This data should be used as just one more piece of information in your handicapping.

Some of this we said in our original post but it bears repeating:

  • There has been a noteworthy consistency to this data for several teams, and we believe it is worth your while to familiarize yourself with the information.
  • There are a lot of arguments that can be made as to why these trends occur for some teams from quarter to quarter over time.  Coaching philosophies, scheduling, QB’s that start slow, and odds-makers’ adjustments all play apart in the fluctuations we see between time-frames for some of the teams.
  • When using this reference it is important that you keep in mind situations such as coaching or impact roster changes that would render historic data much less useful.  Obviously for teams that have enjoyed coaching and player continuity, the data should tend to hold more true.
  •  The baseline represents all results for a given team across all time-frames.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets for both the NFL and NCAAF:

  • ML_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ML WIN % BY TEAM
  • ATS_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ATS WIN % BY TEAM
  • TOTAL_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – TOTAL OVER WIN % BY TEAM
  • SUMMARY_HISTORY_Q1-Q3 – ML/ATS/TOTAL COUNTS BY FAV/OVER FOR Q1, Q2, Q3, AND A BASELINE PERIODS

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • THE DATA REPRESENTS A 5 YEAR HISTORY AND IS GROUPED BY QUARTER
  • ML AND ATS PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OR WIN %
  • TOTAL PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF GAMES THAT WENT OVER
  • THE BASELINE PERIOD REPRESENTS ALL DATA FOR ALL TIME-FRAMES BY TEAM
  • For Q3 any Historic percentages >= 60% are highlighted in green
  • For Q3, any Historic – Baseline differences of >= 10% are highlighted in green and any <=-10% in red
  • For Q3 as compared to Q2, any differences of >= 20% are highlighted in green and <=20% in red
  • Under the column “Best Quarter” is Q3 it is highlighted in green, and if “Worst Quarter” highlighted in red
  • ALL PUSHES HAVE BEEN OMITTED

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL DATA

*

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

Football Is At The Quarter Mile Post And History Suggests That Some Teams Perform Measurably Different In The Next Leg Of Their Seasons

If you’re like us, whenever football is not being played you can’t wait for it to start, then once it does the weeks just fly by.

It’s hard to believe that we are already one quarter of the way into the NFL season, and one quarter plus into the College Football season.

One of the things we have tracked for some time but never reported on, is an analysis of how teams have done comparatively across different time frames with in a season.

For football, we have found that by taking the regular season and grouping it into quarters we have gotten that best results overtime when it comes to this type of comparative analysis.

The time-frames are defined as follows:

  • For both the NFL and NCAAF – Weeks 01-04 are Q1
  • For both the NFL and NCAAF – Weeks 05-08 are Q2
  • For both the NFL and NCAAF – Weeks 09-12 are Q3
  • Q4 for the is NFL Weeks 13-17, and for NCAAF Weeks 13-Through the Bowl Games

Everyone reading this is probably well aware that at the end of any football season, there is a fairly even distribution of Favorites and Dogs that cover ATS.  But you will never see an even distribution of Favorites and Dogs from week to week.  A few weeks might be top heavy with Favorites followed by a run of Dogs, that at the end of the season results in relative ATS parity.

The same basic philosophy can be applied when analyzing result data at the individual team level across various time-frames.

For example, the Florida Gators historically have been overall a very strong 60.6% ATS in the past 5 years.  But when we review how the Gators have done across our time-frames we see an interesting and consistent trend.  For Q1 the Gators have been an off the charts 76.2% ATS, but for Q2 their ATS win rate drops to only 33.3%.  Currently the Gators are 3-1, or 75.0%, ATS and host LSU as a 2.5 point Dog in this Q2 matchup.

In another example, the Minnesota Vikings have gone Over the Total 52.4% of the time for the past five years of history.  But for Q1 only across that five year history the Vikings Total has gone Over only 39.1% of the time, while for Q2 they have been Over 72.2% of the time.  This week Minny, who is 1 Over/3 Under on the year, hosts the Titans with the Total currently at 44.

We want to be absolutely clear, that any of these trends in a vacuum are no reason in and of itself to play a side or total.  This data should be used as just one more piece of information in your handicapping.

That said, there has been a noteworthy consistency to this data for several teams, and we believe it is very much worth your while to familiarize yourself with the information.

There are a lot of arguments that can be made as to why these trends occur for some teams from quarter to quarter over time.  Coaching philosophies, scheduling, QB’s that start slow, and odds-makers’ adjustments all play apart in the fluctuations we see between time-frames for some of the teams.

When using this reference it is important that you keep in mind situations such as coaching or impact roster changes that would render historic data much less useful.  Obviously for teams that have enjoyed coaching and player continuity, the data should tend to hold more true.

The screenshots and spreadsheet show historic Q1/Q2 and baseline data for the NFL and College Football.  The baseline represents all results for a given team across all time-frames. We will revisit this post at the end of Q2 and see how the data fared versus the actual results, as well as add data for Q3.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets for both the NFL and NCAAF:

  • ML_HISTORY_Q1-Q2 – ML WIN % BY TEAM FOR BASELINE/Q2/Q1 – SORTED BY ALPHA AND BY Q2 WIN % AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM BASELINE AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM Q1
  • ATS_HISTORY_Q1-Q2 – ATS WIN % BY TEAM FOR BASELINE/Q2/Q1 – SORTED BY ALPHA AND BY Q2 WIN % AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM BASELINE AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM Q1
  • TOTAL_HISTORY_Q1-Q2 – TOTAL OVER WIN % BY TEAM FOR BASELINE/Q2/Q1 – SORTED BY ALPHA AND BY Q2 WIN % AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM BASELINE AND BY Q2 DIFFERENCE FROM Q1
  • SUMMARY_HISTORY_Q1-Q2 – ML/ATS/TOTAL COUNTS BY FAV/OVER FOR Q1, Q2, AND A BASELINE PERIODA

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • THE DATA REPRESENTS A 5 YEAR HISTORY AND IS GROUPED BY QUARTER
  • ML AND ATS PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OR WIN %
  • TOTAL PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF GAMES THAT WENT OVER
  • THE BASELINE PERIOD REPRESENTS ALL DATA FOR ALL TIME-FRAMES BY TEAM
  • ALL PUSHES HAVE BEEN OMITTED

NFL DATA

COLLEGE FOOTBALL DATA

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

NFL – HANDICAPPING STATS – WEEKS 01-02 REVIEW – WEEK 03 PREVIEW

September 18, 2012 Leave a comment

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through Week 02 of the NFL Season, as well as historic data through Week 03 that provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current and prior seasons across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
  • CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

CLICK IMAGE TO GO TO SPREADSHEET

Read more…

2011/2012 Bowl Game Projected Data Success Rates Final Counts

January 10, 2012 Leave a comment

Just a quick entry, that we will be updating throughout the Bowl Season, tracking how well our projected data has done for the Money Line, ATS, and the Totals for all the games.

You can find all the current Bowl Game Breakdowns here.

Read more…

NFL Five Year Playoff History – Broken Down By Team, Game Type, Line Movement, Line History, and Total History

The spreadsheet below offers a snapshot of many different historic data views for the upcoming NFL playoffs.

The data is presented at the team level, game type level, line movement level, and graphs and raw data for the closing line and closing total results.

Please keep in mind that the analysis is for a five year history only, so the sample size is relatively small.

That said, we think you will still find the information useful.

Some observations:

  • 4 teams have no playoff history in our five year window
  • New England while 5-3 SU is on 2-6 ATS
  • The Giants while 3-3 SU are 5-1 ATS * Strongest ATS percentage of all playoff teams * Also the Giants are 4-0 ATS on the road 0-1 ATS at home
  • The Steelers are 7-0 to the Over
  • The Ravens are 3-0 to the Under as a Favorite  Read more…

GoDaddy.com Bowl 01/08/2012 – Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois – Team Bowl History Snapshot and Game Match-Up

Sunday, January 8, 2012

GoDaddy.com Bowl

LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM – MOBILE, AL

Arkansas State   10-2 (8-0 in the Sun Belt)

Northern Illinois  10-3 (7-1 in the MAC)

Read more…

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