What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 12/19/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

When To Buy The Half Point * Revisited

We put together an analysis of when it makes sense to buy the half point in football.

The sample data set consists of the last five years of history for College Football and the NFL.

We selected all games where the Closing Line fell on a “football number”, then recalculated the results based on if we would have bought the Line down when playing a Favorite, or bought the Line up when playing an Underdog.

The data is presented in both percentages and in net dollar figures based on simulated $100 wagers.

We used the assumption of 110 to win 100 for the actual data, and 120 to win 100 for the buy down/up data. If you wish to use different odds for the buy down/up data you can simply download the spreadsheet and apply whatever variables you see fit.

The “Net Advantage” column in the spreadsheet shows the plus or minus net that would have occurred from buying the Line up or down at each data point.

Some of the findings are obvious, and some of them not so obvious.

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 12/02/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

Getting The Most Out Of Our Website – How To Use The “Current Games – Detail View” Section

We often see questions posted on Twitter asking where to find handicapping information, and it makes us feel that we are not doing a very good job of informing people about all our site has to offer.

As I am sure most of you reading this know there are countless sites that provide this type of  information, but it had been our experience that most of it was fragmented, not very comprehensive, and displayed in ways that doesn’t make sense.

We just thought that someone could do a better job, so why not us.

When designing the site we included all the information that we found ourselves searching out, grouped it by individual game, and then displayed all that information in a way that mirrors how our users, the handicapping public, intuitively think.

In addition to providing the data, we allow you access to it via query tools that we feel are better than anything offered across this very crowded space.

While we think we have done a pretty good job, and hope you do as well, we continue to feel that too much of our site’s functionality and information is being under utilized.

When we look at how our users navigate within our site, it is clear that people land on a main page and either don’t think about or don’t know how much other valuable information is a few clicks away.

With that in mind we thought it might be helpful if we posted a series of articles that drilled down on our site’s features and the data that we offer.

The first topic we chose to write about is the “Current Games – Detail View”.

This is available for all the Leagues that we track and offers a VERY VERY detailed look at all the currently scheduled games from a handicapping perspective.

Some of the highlights include:

• The most thorough Game Snapshot you will find on the web, including anything and everything from Line/Total Movement, Game Time (which came be customized to your time zone),  and a link that provides the weather forecast for any outdoor venue.
• Head-To-Head Cover Rates, Scoring Averages by Road/Home Team (For MLB Pitcher specific data is included), and a 5 year roster of all their games complete with historic ML/ATS/Total results
• Query Tool that shows you Cover Rates at the current Line/Total and allows you to adjust the Line/Total  by half points to see if there has been any value in buying the Line/Total up or down
• Displays how the teams have done historically specific to the current game role – For example Coming off a Home Loss on Short Weeks Rest
• Query Tool that allows you to return ML/ATS/Total histories at the click of a  button for countless scenarios – For example – How have the Bears done as a Dog in Road Division Games On Grass?
• ML/ATS/Total history for both teams that you can both sort and filter
• Match up data presented side by side showing one team’s offense vs the other team’s defense complete with ranking data for each category to help make the comparisons more meaningful

Below you will find a much more in-depth look at “Current Games – Detail View” section of our site.

We hope you find this informative, and if you have questions we would love to hear from you so please feel free to reach out to us on Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Current Games – Detail View

This view displays a detailed look at the current card of games for each league.

It is broken down into a header and a series of tabs.

Current Games – Detail View – Header

The header display remains visible regardless of what tab you chose and offers a quick reference on the details of a game, such as who is playing, Current Money Line, Line, and Total data, as well as the projected final scores. Throughout the website, the

Favorite team is highlighted in dark green and the Underdog in dark red.

The arrows will page from game to game and for quick access to a specific match-up you can use the drop down menu to go directly to any game.

If one team opened as the favorite, and currently the other team is currently the favorite, the Open Favorite A/H and Current Favorite A/H fields will be highlighted in yellow, alerting you to this change.

In some cases a game may have a valid Line but no Total. In that event, the system defaults to a Total of 299 and highlights the Current Total field in yellow alerting you that no valid total is available.

Current Games – Detail View – Game Snapshot

This tab drills down on the specifics of the selected game. Here you can find information about each team, such as streaks leading into the current game, Current Line and Total data, projected winners and Total result, as well as date, time, venue, and weather information.

Please note, that during registration you can select a preferred time zone, in which to display all game time data.

If Game Type is something other than “Regular Season”, the display will be highlighted in yellow.

If game is being played at a Neutral Site, the display will be highlighted in yellow.

As mentioned above, in some cases a game may have a valid Line but no Total. In that event, the system defaults to a Total of 299 and on this tab highlights the Open Total, Current Total, and Projected Total Result fields in yellow, alerting you that no valid total is available.

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 11/26/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 11/19/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 11/10/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

Season to date in College Football there have been 12 games that have match the “Favorite Flip” criteria and 7 games in the NFL.

Our List Of Some Of The Best Twitter Follows For The Football Season * Updated 11/10/2012

From time to time we have been asked who we think are some of the best follows on Twitter for football handicapping information, so we finally sat down and created our own list.

Below you will find a roster of suggested follows and some brief commentary as to why we value their contributions.

Many of these Twitter names you may already be familiar with, but we would encourage you to take a good look at anyone who may be new to you.

Please note, that even though we feel some of the best information can be derived from “local/beat writer twitter feeds”, we have decided to omit them simply to make the list more manageable.

For a number of reasons, this project turned out to be much more difficult than anticipated.

If, and I am sure it will happen, we realize we forgot someone we will add them as needed.

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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These guys usually have an open tab in our browser:

@beyondthebets	IN A LITTLE OVER A YEAR BTB HAS BECOME THE GO TO SOURCE FOR INTELLIGENT HANDICAPPING INFORMATION/DISCUSSION
@ToddFuhrman	FORMER SPORTSBOOK OPERATOR NOW INDUSTRY GURU, TODD IS SMART SAVVY AND MORE APPROACHABLE THAN A VEGAS BAR GIRL
@ViewFromVegas	DAVE DOES A PHENOMENAL JOB OF COVERING ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING HANDICAPPING RELATED IN THE GREAT CITY OF LAS VEGAS, NV

Some of this group you may not be familiar with, but you should be:

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 11/03/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

Season to date in College Football there have been 12 games that have match the “Favorite Flip” criteria and 7 games in the NFL.

NFL – An Historic Analysis Of Q3 ML/ATS/Total Performance By Team

We posted data through Q2 about a month ago, and thought it was worth continuing into Q3.

You can find the original post here.

To recap, we have tracked  how teams have done comparatively across different time frames with in a season.

The time-frames are defined as follows for NFL:

• Weeks 01-04 are Q1
• Weeks 05-08 are Q2
• Weeks 09-12 are Q3
• Weeks 13-17 are Q4

The analysis of the NFL Q3 history indicates there are several teams whose ML/ATS/Total performances have been measurably different as compared to other time frames.

For example, the Saints have historically been a very strong Q3 team ATS covering 64.7%, 17.3% over their historic Q2 performance and 12.3% over their historic baseline performance.

We say this all the time,  but we want to be absolutely clear that any of these trends in a vacuum are no reason in and of itself to play a side or total.  This data should be used as just one more piece of information in your handicapping.

Some of this we said in our original post but it bears repeating:

• There has been a noteworthy consistency to this data for several teams, and we believe it is worth your while to familiarize yourself with the information.
• There are a lot of arguments that can be made as to why these trends occur for some teams from quarter to quarter over time.  Coaching philosophies, scheduling, QB’s that start slow, and odds-makers’ adjustments all play apart in the fluctuations we see between time-frames for some of the teams.
• When using this reference it is important that you keep in mind situations such as coaching or impact roster changes that would render historic data much less useful.  Obviously for teams that have enjoyed coaching and player continuity, the data should tend to hold more true.
•  The baseline represents all results for a given team across all time-frames.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets for both the NFL and NCAAF:

• ML_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ML WIN % BY TEAM
• ATS_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ATS WIN % BY TEAM
• TOTAL_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – TOTAL OVER WIN % BY TEAM
• SUMMARY_HISTORY_Q1-Q3 – ML/ATS/TOTAL COUNTS BY FAV/OVER FOR Q1, Q2, Q3, AND A BASELINE PERIODS

Please note the following regarding the data:

• THE DATA REPRESENTS A 5 YEAR HISTORY AND IS GROUPED BY QUARTER
• ML AND ATS PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OR WIN %
• TOTAL PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF GAMES THAT WENT OVER
• THE BASELINE PERIOD REPRESENTS ALL DATA FOR ALL TIME-FRAMES BY TEAM
• For Q3 any Historic percentages >= 60% are highlighted in green
• For Q3, any Historic – Baseline differences of >= 10% are highlighted in green and any <=-10% in red
• For Q3 as compared to Q2, any differences of >= 20% are highlighted in green and <=20% in red
• Under the column “Best Quarter” is Q3 it is highlighted in green, and if “Worst Quarter” highlighted in red
• ALL PUSHES HAVE BEEN OMITTED

 

NFL DATA

*

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats