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Our Week 17 NFL Selections

December 30, 2012 Leave a comment

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

For all the Sunday games we will have posted our comments by the preceding Saturday.  For games played on any other day we will post our thoughts no later than a few hours prior to kickoff.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

Our Week 16 NFL Selections

December 23, 2012 Leave a comment

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

For all the Sunday games we will have posted our comments by the preceding Saturday.  For games played on any other day we will post our thoughts no later than a few hours prior to kickoff.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

Our Week 15 NFL Selections

December 16, 2012 Leave a comment

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

For all the Sunday games we will have posted our comments by the preceding Saturday.  For games played on any other day we will post our thoughts no later than a few hours prior to kickoff.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

Our Bowl Game Selections * Updated Through The Potato Bowl

December 15, 2012 Leave a comment

Throughout the Bowl Season we will be post any sides or totals that we like on our site as we have done all season.

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

Our Week 14 NFL Selections

December 6, 2012 Leave a comment

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

For all the Sunday games we will have posted our comments by the preceding Saturday.  For games played on any other day we will post our thoughts no later than a few hours prior to kickoff.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

2012 Army vs Navy Game Preview

December 5, 2012 1 comment

The annual Army vs Navy game concludes the 2012/2013 College Football Regular Season this Saturday.

We have attended a few Army/Navy games, and they are just a tremendous experience.  If you ever get the opportunity, do yourself a favor and go.

As much as we enjoy Army/Navy, the game always makes us a bit sad since it is a stark reminder that all we have left in College Football is a bunch of crappy Bowl Games, a few good Bowl games, and the National Championship.  Of course we are looking forward to Bama/Notre Dame, but it always takes us several weeks to get over our Tuesday/Wednesday Night MAC Conference GOW withdraw.

So in hopes of closing out the 2012/2013 College Football Regular Season with a winner, we offer a review of the current Army/Navy game along with some history of the the last five match ups.

The game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA the home of the Eagles(and those Temple Owls).

Straight up, Navy leads the overall series with a record of 56-49-7 , and have won the last ten in a row.

While Navy has steadily improved throughout the season, Army has been up and down, at times being in games and at times getting their doors blown off.

Both these teams have solid rushing games with Army leading College Football with 369.8 yards/game while Navy is 6th in the country at 285.5 yards/game.  Couple these running attacks with the fact that both Army and Navy have ranked 108 or higher all season in run defense and it should be a reasonable expectation that both teams will run the ball at will and chew clock.  Additionally, both teams have struggled to say the least with any kind of passing game, with Army ranked dead last and Navy not too far from them.

For the current season Air Force was their only common opponent, and both teams won their games outright as Dogs.  On 10/06/2012 Navy beat Air Force 28-21 as a 8.5 point Road Dog, and on 11/03/2012 Army beat Air Force 41-21 as a 7 point Home Dog.

Our internal Strength of Schedule Calculation moderately favors Navy for the Current Season.

Season to date, the Midshipmen are 6-4 straight up, and 3-7 ATS, and 3 Overs and 7 Unders in the Totals.

Season to date, Army is 2-8 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and 6 Overs and 4 Unders in the Totals.

Currently Navy is a 7 point Favorite and the Total is 56.5.

You can find our full Game Breakdown with Projection, here.

Below is a breakdown of the last five Army vs Navy games, including ML, ATS, and Total, and Projected Results.

 

 

Read more…

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook’s 100 Games Of The Year – Projected Straight Up And ATS Winners – Results Through 12/01/2012

December 2, 2012 Leave a comment

With 99 out of 100 games in the books, and only Army vs Navy remaining, we thought we would update how we would have theoretically done playing all of the LVH 100 early release games.

You can find the on-going record in the spreadsheet, but as of 12/01/2012 our Straight Up our record is 50-49, 50.5%, and ATS our record is 56-42-1, for a 57.1% win percentage.

We continue to find it interesting that our ATS record is outperforming our ML record.

The last time we updated this information in early November, we were in the midst of a very bad two week run, where we gave back most of our early season gains.  Subsequent to that we have more than held our own, and closed with a very strong 23-11 run ATS.

After next week’s final game we will see if we can make some sense out of our results and report back on them collectively,

* Original Post From The Summer

As many of you know the  Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook released their 100 Games Of The Year lines yesterday for the 2012 College Football season.

Several weeks ago we had posted our 2012 College Football Projected Win Totals and Conference Standings.  Since most of the information was already in place we decided to apply the Game Of  The Year lines against our data and publish our Projected ATS outcomes for these games.

It goes without saying that countless things that go into these projections can and will change between now and when they actually play the games, but we find it informative and interesting on many levels to take our first real look at what our systems are indicating versus these early lines.

To be clear, what we are presenting here is the projected ATS outcomes of these 100 games to be played throughout the coming 2012.  Our system’s projections are based on profiles we have built for each team as well as a series of algorithms that attempt to quantify how well two teams match-up.

Please note that when the season begins for real, our actual weekly projections will almost certainly vary from what we are publishing today due to the fact that current season data becomes more and more integral to our projection methodology as it becomes available.

The screen capture below shows the projected outcomes by game date.  You may also click on the embedded spreadsheet below for a more in depth view of the data.

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

  • Straight Up we like 66 Favorites and 34 Dogs
  • ATS we like 67 Dogs and 33 Favorites
  • For Neutral Site Games the hosting venue is shown in the rightmost column
  •  On the spreadsheet the data is presented by Game Date as well as by Overlay showing strongest Favorites first

LAS VEGAS HILTON 100 GAMES OF THE YEAR – PROJECTED ATS OUTCOMES

Read more…

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