Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Over’

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME HANDICAPPING STATS

We have published some data on the past five years of history for the NFL Wildcard Games.

Please keep in mind that while we feel this information is well worth your review, that the sample size in fairly small.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

Please note that the match-up sheets contain past playoff history as well as common opponent outcomes, and that the dollarized data on the WILDCARD_BY_LINE sheet represents a money line figure if one had played all the Favorites or all the Underdogs based on assumed X to win $100 for Favorites and $100 to win X for Dogs.

  • WC_CINN_VS_HOU – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE BENGALS VS TEXANS MATCHUP
  • WC_MINNY_VS_GB – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE VIKINGS VS PACKERS
  • WC_INDY_VS_BALT – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE COLTS VS RAVENS MATCHUP
  • WC_SEA_VS_WASH – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE SEAHAWKS VS REDSKINS
  • WILDCARD_BREAKDOWN – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/FAVORITE TYPE/AWAY/HOME
  • WILDCARD_BY_LINE  – ML/ATS RESULTS BY CLOSING LINE
  • WILDCARD_BY_TOTAL  – TOTALS RESULTS BY CLOSING TOTAL
  • WILDCARD_DETAIL_HISTORY – DETAIL LEVEL FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS OF WILDCARD GAMES

A few observations:

  • Only 1 time in the past 20 games did the points come into play
  • Dogs of less than 3 points have been 5-1 both straight up and ATS

*

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

GreyMatterStats – 2012 College Football Side/ Total Selection Tracker Through 01/03/2013

With the end of the College Football Regular Season, from now until the BCS Championship Game we will track our selection results grouped by the Week Heading “BG”.

The Season-To-Date results for our recommended College Football Sides/Totals is as follows:

Overall – 104-81, 56.2% – Net $2461
Money Line – 11-10, 52.4% – Net $971 (Note – All Money Line plays were Dogs)
ATS – 77-52, 59.7% – Net $1980
Totals – 16-19, 45.7% – Net -$490

As promised, in the embedded spreadsheet below you will find our running tally of how we have done by week and season to date for the College Football.

Read more…

NFL – FINAL 2012/2013 REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through Week 17 of the NFL Season.

The screenshot below offers a top-line view of what occurred this past season from a handicapping perspective.

In our opinion the most interesting finding is the fact that overall, Underdogs finished the season at 54.0%, and Dogs in Non-Conference games were a huge 60.7%.  For the full report please visit the spreadsheet found below.

NFL 2012/2013 COMPLETE REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

NFL 2012/2013 COMPLETE REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

 

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
  • CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

Please note the following regarding the data:

Read more…

GreyMatterStats – 2012 College Football Side/ Total Selection Tracker Through 12/31/2012

With the end of the College Football Regular Season, from now until the BCS Championship Game we will track our selection results grouped by the Week Heading “BG”.

The Season-To-Date results for our recommended College Football Sides/Totals is as follows:

Overall – 104-81, 56.2% – Net $2461
Money Line – 11-10, 52.4% – Net $971 (Note – All Money Line plays were Dogs)
ATS – 77-52, 59.7% – Net $1980
Totals – 16-19, 45.7% – Net -$490

As promised, in the embedded spreadsheet below you will find our running tally of how we have done by week and season to date for the College Football.

Read more…

GreyMatterStats – 2012 NFL Side/ Total Selection Tracker – Through 12/30/2012

December 31, 2012 Leave a comment

With the end of the NFL Regular Season, from now until the Super Bowl we will track our selection results grouped by the Week Heading “PO”.

The Season-To-Date results for our recommended NFL Football Sides/Totals is as follows:

Overall – 112-85, 56.9% – Net $3496
Money Line – 18-21, 46.2% – Net $436 (Note – All Money Line plays were Dogs)
ATS – 65-49, 57.0% – Net $1100
Totals – 29-15, 65.9% – Net -$1950

 

As promised, in the embedded spreadsheet below you will find our running tally of how we have done by week and season to date for the NFL.

It is worth noting that we will continue to track the weekly and overall performance of our projected data as we have always done.  For anyone not familiar with our site, we project the outcome of every single game as part of our system.  Any sides/totals that we may share with our readers is independent of our projected data and will be tracked separately.

Please note that throughout the NFL Playoffs we will be tracking our results under the Weekly heading “PO” and not breaking down the remaining games by week.

Current Week and Season-To_Date Results:

*

 

Current Week and STD Counts

*

FOR WEEK 17    OVERALL 8-6 – NET $150      ML 0-1 NET $-100      ATS 6-3 NET$270      TOTAL 2-2 NET $-20
RUNNING STD TOTAL     OVERALL 112-85 – NET $3496      ML 18-21 NET $436      ATS 65-49 NET$1110      TOTAL 29-15 NET $1950

 

*

Please note:

  • The first workbook in the spreadsheet, “GMS_RUNNING_TALLY”, running totals by week and overall for money line, ATS, and totals
  • The second workbook in the spreadsheet, “GMS_SELECTED”, detail of all games where we have offered an opinion
  • All dollar figures represent what would have been win/loss figures on assumed $100 wagers, and that for ATS and Totals we will always assume $110 to win $100.

*

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

Our Week 17 NFL Selections

December 30, 2012 Leave a comment

Below you will find some instructions that will help you locate where on our site we display any comments we may have regarding sides and totals that we like.

For all the Sunday games we will have posted our comments by the preceding Saturday.  For games played on any other day we will post our thoughts no later than a few hours prior to kickoff.

There will be times when we change our suggestions to a “NO-PLAY” prior to kickoff due to things such as weather or injury.  When that occurs, in addition to updating the “NOTES” section of our site we will make sure to Tweet the change as well.

For those of you familiar with our site, there is a section title “Select and Print Games” found in the drop down menus for each League.  This section, which allows you to select and print the Current Card Of Games, essentially creates an form from which you can print any and all games selected.  Part of the form is an area labeled, “User Notes”.

For both College Football and the NFL, the User Notes area is be pre-slugged with consensus betting data in cases we are able to calculate such.  Above the Estimated Public Consensus Data is where we will be posting any game selections, ML side, ATS side, or Total that we may have.

In cases where we are posting a selection, you will see directly beneath where it says “User Notes” either *** ML SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** or *** ATS SIDE – FAV/DOG TEAM NAME *** OR TOTAL – OVER/UNDER, followed immediately by some brief thoughts on the selection.

Please note the following:

SIDES_001

  • If you chose to print the form as a report, click the Print Preview Button at the top left – you may need to enable popups for this window to open correctly in your browser
  • Once you have click Print Preview and the display has switched from form to report view, you can simply press the PRINT button to output the report.
  • Please note that one you open the report window you can enter CNTL-A, to select all, then CNTL-C, to copy, then paste the entire report pre-formatted for you into excel using CNTL-V. 

SIDES_002

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

GreyMatterStats – 2012 NFL Side/ Total Selection Tracker – Through 12/23/2012

December 28, 2012 Leave a comment

As we wrote so eloquently several days ago, we have decided to start  sharing some of the weekly plays that we like with our users/readers.

In case you missed our explanation you can find it here.

Look for us to publish our thoughts for any sides or totals that we may like on game-day for any weekday contests, and by Saturday for all Sunday NFL games.

As promised, in the embedded spreadsheet below you will find our running tally of how we are doing by week and season to date for the NFL.

It is worth noting that we will continue to track the weekly and overall performance of our projected data as we have always done.  For anyone not familiar with our site, we project the outcome of every single game as part of our system.  Any sides/totals that we may share with our readers is independent of our projected data and will be tracked separately.

Current Week and STD Counts

*

FOR WEEK 16    OVERALL 12-4 – NET $795      ML 1-1 NET $25      ATS 4-3 NET$70      TOTAL 7-0 NET $700
RUNNING STD TOTAL     OVERALL 104-79 – NET $3346      ML 18-20 NET $536      ATS 59-46 NET$840      TOTAL 27-13 NET $1970

 

*

Please note:

  • The first workbook in the spreadsheet, “GMS_RUNNING_TALLY”, running totals by week and overall for money line, ATS, and totals
  • The second workbook in the spreadsheet, “GMS_SELECTED”, detail of all games where we have offered an opinion
  • All dollar figures represent what would have been win/loss figures on assumed $100 wagers, and that for ATS and Totals we will always assume $110 to win $100.

*

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

%d bloggers like this: