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NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME HANDICAPPING STATS

We have published some data on the past five years of history for the NFL Wildcard Games.

Please keep in mind that while we feel this information is well worth your review, that the sample size in fairly small.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

Please note that the match-up sheets contain past playoff history as well as common opponent outcomes, and that the dollarized data on the WILDCARD_BY_LINE sheet represents a money line figure if one had played all the Favorites or all the Underdogs based on assumed X to win $100 for Favorites and $100 to win X for Dogs.

  • WC_CINN_VS_HOU – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE BENGALS VS TEXANS MATCHUP
  • WC_MINNY_VS_GB – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE VIKINGS VS PACKERS
  • WC_INDY_VS_BALT – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE COLTS VS RAVENS MATCHUP
  • WC_SEA_VS_WASH – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE SEAHAWKS VS REDSKINS
  • WILDCARD_BREAKDOWN – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/FAVORITE TYPE/AWAY/HOME
  • WILDCARD_BY_LINE  – ML/ATS RESULTS BY CLOSING LINE
  • WILDCARD_BY_TOTAL  – TOTALS RESULTS BY CLOSING TOTAL
  • WILDCARD_DETAIL_HISTORY – DETAIL LEVEL FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS OF WILDCARD GAMES

A few observations:

  • Only 1 time in the past 20 games did the points come into play
  • Dogs of less than 3 points have been 5-1 both straight up and ATS

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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NFL – FINAL 2012/2013 REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through Week 17 of the NFL Season.

The screenshot below offers a top-line view of what occurred this past season from a handicapping perspective.

In our opinion the most interesting finding is the fact that overall, Underdogs finished the season at 54.0%, and Dogs in Non-Conference games were a huge 60.7%.  For the full report please visit the spreadsheet found below.

NFL 2012/2013 COMPLETE REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

NFL 2012/2013 COMPLETE REGULAR SEASON HANDICAPPING STATS

 

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
  • CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

Please note the following regarding the data:

Read more…

NCAAB – HANDICAPPING STATS – BY WEEK THROUGH 12/22/2012

December 23, 2012 Leave a comment

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through 12/22/2012, as well as historic data through  that provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current and prior seasons across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY

Please note the following regarding the data:

For the spreadsheets BY_GAME_TYPE_STD and BY_AWAY_HOME_STD:

  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted

Read more…

NBA – HANDICAPPING STATS – BY WEEK THROUGH 12/22/2012

December 23, 2012 Leave a comment

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through 12/22/2012, as well as historic data through  that provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current and prior seasons across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY

Please note the following regarding the data:

For the spreadsheets BY_GAME_TYPE_STD and BY_AWAY_HOME_STD:

  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted

Read more…

NFL – HANDICAPPING STATS – THROUGH 12/22/2012

December 23, 2012 Leave a comment

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played through Week 15 of the NFL Season, as well as historic data through Week 16 that provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current and prior seasons across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
  • CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

Please note the following regarding the data:

Read more…

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 12/19/2012

December 19, 2012 1 comment

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

Read more…

NCAAF – HANDICAPPING STATS – THROUGH 12/15/2012

December 19, 2012 Leave a comment

The information presented here is inclusive of all games  played as of the “through date” for the College Football Season, as well as historic data that provides a snapshot of what is happening by week for the current and prior seasons across many variables.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  • BY_GAME_TYPE_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE GAMES BY WEEK
  • BY_AWAY_HOME_STD – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY AWAY/HOME BY WEEK
  • ML_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF MONEY LINE FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • ATS_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • TOTAL_BY_WEEK – GRAPH OF TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY
  • CLOSING_LINE_BY_WEEK – ATS FAVORITE WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING LINE – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT LINE MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • ATS VARIANCE BY WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL-DOG FINAL-CLOSING LINE) FELL FROM THE CLOSING LINE
  • CLOSING_TOTAL_BY_WEEK – TOTAL OVER WIN% BY WEEK FOR CURRENT SEASON AND HISTORY BY CLOSING TOTAL – ROLLING TOTAL REPRESENTS AGGREGATE FOR ALL WEEKS TO DATE
  • TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK – PERCENT INDICATING HOW CORRECT TOTAL MOVES WERE BY WEEK
  • TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK – FREQUENCY BY WEEK OF HOW FAR THE EQUATION (FAV FINAL+DOG FINAL-CLOSING TOTAL) FELL FROM THE CLOSING TOTAL

Please note the following regarding the data:

For the spreadsheets BY_GAME_TYPE_STD and BY_AWAY_HOME_STD:

  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted

For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_MOVE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_MOVE_BY_WEEK:

  • The data is displayed in terms of how often the Line/Total move was correct for each line item
  • the value of -99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved down
  • the value of 99 = the cumulative sum of all cases where the line moved up

For the spreadsheets labeled LINE_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK and TOTAL_VARIANCE_BY_WEEK:

  • The data is displayed frequencies indicating how far from the Closing Line/Total the Final Outcomes were – More accurate Closing Lines/Totals would display as a cluster around the center value of 0(zero), while data painted further from either side of 0(zero) would indicate less accurate Lines/Totals
  • Read more…

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