Home > 2012 Season, MLB, Trends, Twitter Question, User Questions > Twitter Question – Do Tired Arms Lead To More Overs As We Approach The All-Star Break?

Twitter Question – Do Tired Arms Lead To More Overs As We Approach The All-Star Break?

We got a question via Twitter from @JoeDellAnno who asked, how do MLB totals fare the week before the All-Star Game with the theory being that the bullpens are tired?

To answer this question we went to our MLB history for 2009, 2010, 2011, and season to date for 2012 and extracted data in three groups.

  1. Ten Days Prior To The All-Star Break
  2. Last Series Before The All-Star Break
  3. First Half Of  An MLB Season – Used as a baseline to compare the findings from the other time-frames

In addition to analyzing the totals, we also took a look to see if there was anything of interest regarding money line or run line data for the selected time-frames.

The screenshot below presents the overall findings, which can also be found in the spreadsheet embedded below.

 

 

TOTAL/MONEY LINE/RUN LINE BREAKDOWN

Some miscellaneous notes and observations:

  • The columns labeled “$$$” represent a net dollar figure based on assumed X to win $100 for favorites, $100 to win X for underdogs, and $110 to win $100 for the totals
  • All pushes have been omitted
  • The column labeled “DIFF FROM BASELINE” shows the percentages difference from the corresponding data element from the “First Half Of The Season” time-frame
  • Season = “ALL”, represents an aggregation of all 2009, 2010, 2011, and season to date 2012 data
  • We are seeing no evidence of there being an advantage to the Over, or the Under for that matter, in the time-frames leading up to the All-Star Game
  • Within both the time-frames we examined, Favorites have been significantly stronger plays in 2009, 2010, and 2011 though STD for 2012 is not following this trend so far
  • Across all history for 10 Days Prior To The ASG – Money Line Favorites are +4.6% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $7122
  • Across all history for the Last Series Prior To The ASG – Money Line Favorites are +14.4% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $3955
  • Across all history for 10 Days Prior To The ASG – Run  Line Favorites are +3.6% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $5442
  • Across all history for the Last Series Prior To The ASG – Run Line Line Favorites are +10.2% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $2890

Out of our own curiosity we decided to take a look at how Home Teams have fared in these time-frames as well with our thought being that Road Teams might very well have their minds elsewhere, especially by the final series prior to the All-Star Game.

The results specific can be found below.

OUTCOME DATA SPECIFIC TO HOME TEAMS

Some observations specific to the Home Team data:

  • While history has shown that Home Teams have been solid Money Line plays, interestingly that has not transferred to the Run Line, which while showing a slight percentage increase over the baseline would have been underwater on a dollar-basis
  • Across all history for 10 Days Prior To The ASG – Against the Money Line Home Teams are +4.0% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $4297
  • Across all history for the Last Series Prior To The ASG – Against the Money Line Home Teams are are +8.8% as compared to the baseline and would have netted a positive $2040

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  1. TOTAL_SU_RL– TOTAL, MONEY LINE, AND RUN LINE DATA LEADING UP TO THE ASG
  2. HOME_TEAM_DATA – MONEY LINE AND RUN LINE WIN % FOR HOME TEAMS LEADING UP TO THE ASG

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats

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