Archive

Archive for the ‘NewsLetter’ Category

When To Buy The Half Point * Revisited

December 4, 2012 Leave a comment

We put together an analysis of when it makes sense to buy the half point in football.

The sample data set consists of the last five years of history for College Football and the NFL.

We selected all games where the Closing Line fell on a “football number”, then recalculated the results based on if we would have bought the Line down when playing a Favorite, or bought the Line up when playing an Underdog.

The data is presented in both percentages and in net dollar figures based on simulated $100 wagers.

We used the assumption of 110 to win 100 for the actual data, and 120 to win 100 for the buy down/up data. If you wish to use different odds for the buy down/up data you can simply download the spreadsheet and apply whatever variables you see fit.

The “Net Advantage” column in the spreadsheet shows the plus or minus net that would have occurred from buying the Line up or down at each data point.

Some of the findings are obvious, and some of them not so obvious.

Read more…

Advertisements

When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated

December 22, 2011 Leave a comment

Each week we will be tracking this niche trend that has performed very well season to date.

The embedded spreadsheet found below, tracks the individual games and provides outcome statistics.

To meet the criteria for a “Favorite Flip” a game must:

  1. Have a switch from the Opening Favorite to the Closing Favorite
  2. Have the game Open as a Pick, then the Road Team wind up being the Closing Favorite
  3. Have the Opening Favorite be the Road team, then have the game close as a Pick

These games have lost significant steam over the past few weeks but we will continue to follow them.

Read more…

2011 World Series Prices and Projection

October 19, 2011 Leave a comment

The World Series starts today, and as of this writing the series odds are as follows:

Texas Rangers   -165

St Louis Cardinals   +145

The announced scheduled starters as of right now are:

                     Texas Rangers                            St. Louis Cardinals

Game 1        C.J. Wilson                                    Chris Carpenter

Game 2        Colby Lewis                                  Jamie Garcia

Game 3        Not Yet Announced                       Kyle Lohse

Game 4        Not Yet Announced                       Edwin Jackson

We have run the data for the full  series,  but want to caution you that for games in which a starting pitcher is “Not Yet Announced”, that we used our best guess as to a probable starter.

Read more…

NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Stats By Team and Overall

October 15, 2011 Leave a comment

With the NFL bye weeks underway, we wanted to post some interesting stats regarding individual team and overall performance for the weeks leading into, and after a bye week.

At the individual team level, we feel it is important to keep in mind that coaching continuity can play a major role in how well these stats hold up over time.

At the detail team level, which you find in the spreadsheet below, the data is broken down by Favorite and Underdog, as well as by Home and Away.

Overview of Money Line By Team

 

Read more…

MLB 2011 ALDS and NLDS Series Prices and Projections

September 30, 2011 Leave a comment

Baseball playoffs start today, and as of this writing the series odds are as follows:

Tampa Bay Rays  +150
Texas Rangers   -170

Detroit Tigers   +130
New York Yankees  -150

Arizona Diamondbacks  +150
Milwaukee Brewers   -170

St Louis Cardinals   +240
Philadelphia Phillies  -300

We have run the data for the full  ALDS and NLDS series,  but want to caution you that for games in which a starting pitcher is “to be determined”, that we used our best guess as to a probable starter.

Read more…

Season To Date – When “Favorites Flip” the Home Team Has Been Perfect

September 29, 2011 Leave a comment

By far the most reaction we have gotten to anything we have written this football season, has been to our initial post and subsequent updates regarding the “Favorite Flip” scenario.

The reaction has run the gamut from;

“Thanks for the heads up”,

to

” you’d have to be an a**hole to lay 2.5 points when you could have gotten 2.5 points”.

Read more…

A Quick Note On Our Opening Lines

September 29, 2011 2 comments

We have received a bunch of inquiries regarding which Opening Line we use in our system.

It is actually a really good question, with a somewhat complicated answer.

We have access to 32 Sportsbook’s odds information.

Of those 32 Sportsbook’s, a few release lines and totals for the current week much earlier than the others.

In some cases, there is significant move off the early Opening Line, until such time as the Line settles in.  When the majority of the Sportsbooks release their individual Opening Lines, they look much more like the bet up or down Lines, of the Sportsbooks that released early.

Within our system the Opening Line is used for many purposes, such as tracking whether or not the Line Movement has been correct.

Historically our approach has been to grab the first Line was see posted for a game and use it as our Opening Line, regardless of the source Sportsbook.

Read more…

%d bloggers like this: