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Posts Tagged ‘NFl Playoffs’

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAME HANDICAPPING STATS

We have published some data on the past five years of history for the NFL Wildcard Games.

Please keep in mind that while we feel this information is well worth your review, that the sample size in fairly small.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

Please note that the match-up sheets contain past playoff history as well as common opponent outcomes, and that the dollarized data on the WILDCARD_BY_LINE sheet represents a money line figure if one had played all the Favorites or all the Underdogs based on assumed X to win $100 for Favorites and $100 to win X for Dogs.

  • WC_CINN_VS_HOU – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE BENGALS VS TEXANS MATCHUP
  • WC_MINNY_VS_GB – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE VIKINGS VS PACKERS
  • WC_INDY_VS_BALT – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE COLTS VS RAVENS MATCHUP
  • WC_SEA_VS_WASH – DATA SPECIFIC TO THE SEAHAWKS VS REDSKINS
  • WILDCARD_BREAKDOWN – ML/ATS/TOTAL RESULTS BY CONFERENCE/FAVORITE TYPE/AWAY/HOME
  • WILDCARD_BY_LINE  – ML/ATS RESULTS BY CLOSING LINE
  • WILDCARD_BY_TOTAL  – TOTALS RESULTS BY CLOSING TOTAL
  • WILDCARD_DETAIL_HISTORY – DETAIL LEVEL FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS OF WILDCARD GAMES

A few observations:

  • Only 1 time in the past 20 games did the points come into play
  • Dogs of less than 3 points have been 5-1 both straight up and ATS

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About The Last Five Years Of NFL Conference Championship Games

January 20, 2012 Leave a comment

The embedded Excel file contains several frequencies that break down the last five years of NFL Conference Championship Games.

Please keep in mind that this five year history is comprised of only 10 games, so the sample size is very low.

Never the less, we find it interesting to review this kind of data, and hope you find it informative as well.

BY ROLE

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Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About The Last Five Years Of NFL Divisional Playoff Games

January 14, 2012 Leave a comment

The embedded Excel file contains several frequencies that break down the last five years of NFL Divisional Playoff Games.

Please keep in mind that this five year history is comprised of only 20 games, so the sample size is relatively low.

It is worth noting that in all 20 games in this history, the Home team was the Favorite.  In this season’s round of Divisional Playoff Games, there is one instance of a Road Favorite, with the Saints being -3.5 against the 49ers.

Some observations on the data:

  • Overall ML has been 10 Favorites and 10 Dogs
  • Overall ATS the Dog has been 13-7 or 65.0%
  • Overall Totals have been 10 Over and 10 Under
  • Dogs in the Divisional Games that were on the Road for the Wildcard Round were 6-3 or 66.7%, against the ML, 7-2 ATS or 77.8%, and in those games the Under was  6-3 or 66.7%
  • Dogs in the Divisional Games that Favorites for the Wildcard Round were 9-3 or 75.0%, ATS
  • In the Divisional Games with Teams whose Wildcard Round games went Over, the Under was 6-3 or 66.7%
  • In the Divisional Games with Teams whose Wildcard Round games went Under, the Over was 7-4 or 63.6%
  • In the Divisional Games where the Line has been greater than 7, the Dog is 6-2 or 75.0%
  • In the Divisional Games 40% of the outcomes have been a correlated result of Dog and Under
  • In the Divisional Games Line Moves Down have been Correct 5 of 6 games or,  83.3% of the time
  • In the Divisional Games Line Moves Up have only been Correct 2 of 6 games or,  33.3% of the time
  • In the Divisional Games Overall All Total Moves been Correct 11 of 17 games or,  64.7% of the time

BY ROLE

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NFL Five Year Playoff History – Broken Down By Team, Game Type, Line Movement, Line History, and Total History

The spreadsheet below offers a snapshot of many different historic data views for the upcoming NFL playoffs.

The data is presented at the team level, game type level, line movement level, and graphs and raw data for the closing line and closing total results.

Please keep in mind that the analysis is for a five year history only, so the sample size is relatively small.

That said, we think you will still find the information useful.

Some observations:

  • 4 teams have no playoff history in our five year window
  • New England while 5-3 SU is on 2-6 ATS
  • The Giants while 3-3 SU are 5-1 ATS * Strongest ATS percentage of all playoff teams * Also the Giants are 4-0 ATS on the road 0-1 ATS at home
  • The Steelers are 7-0 to the Over
  • The Ravens are 3-0 to the Under as a Favorite  Read more…
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