Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 12/02/2012

What Happens When Favorites Flip In Football – 2012/2013 – Through 12/02/2012

We have been asked several times to re-visit this niche trend we followed with success last season.

While this situation does not occur frequently, what we have found is that certain trends have held up over time, and interestingly the trends are very different for College Football versus the NFL.

For those of you not familiar, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

As you review this data please keep in mind that the sample size is small, and that we will be updating the information on a weekly basis.

Some Observations for the NCAAF Data In Regards To The Favorite Flip Situation: 

  • Overall when the Opening Favorite was the Away Team and it switches the Home Team Favorite is 58.8% ATS
  • Overall when the Opening Favorite was the Home Team and it switches the Under is 57.1%
  • Overall when the Opening Favorite was the Away Team and it switches the Over is 64.7
  • STD when the Opening Favorite was the Home Team and it switches the Away Team Favorite is 88.9% ATS, and the Under is 66.7% as well

Some Observations for the NFL Data In Regards To The Favorite Flip Situation: 

  • Overall when a “Favorite Flips” in the NFL the Closing Dog has been 62.5%ATS, and 77.8% when the Closing Favorite was the Home Team
  • STD when a “Favorite Flips” in the NFL the Closing Dog has been 77.8%ATS, that is 7-2-2
  • Overall when a “Favorite Flips” in the NFL the Under has been 59.6%, and 70.6% when the Closing Favorite was the Home Team
  • STD when a “Favorite Flips” in the NFL the Under has been 70.0%, and 100.0% when the Closing Favorite was the Home Team

NCAAF Current Week Games

None Currently Showing

NFL

2 Game Current Showing – New York Jets  vs Jacksonville and Chicago vs Minnesota

*** Note – We had the Bengals/Chargers game on our watch list last week and while for a time the game did present a “Flip Favorite” scenario, the Closing Line had reverted back to the original Favorite and therefore the game is not included in our analysis

Please note that:

  • All pushes were excluded from the data.
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite.
  • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

In the embedded Excel workbooks below,  you will find the following worksheets for both the NCAAF and the NFL

  1. NCAAF_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – Results by Group Type/Favorite Type for all history and STD as well as roster of current games
  2. NFL_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – Results by Group Type/Favorite Type for all history and STD as well as roster of current games

We hope you find the data an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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