Home > General Information, NewsLetter, User Questions > When To Buy The Half Point * Revisited

When To Buy The Half Point * Revisited

We put together an analysis of when it makes sense to buy the half point in football.

The sample data set consists of the last five years of history for College Football and the NFL.

We selected all games where the Closing Line fell on a “football number”, then recalculated the results based on if we would have bought the Line down when playing a Favorite, or bought the Line up when playing an Underdog.

The data is presented in both percentages and in net dollar figures based on simulated $100 wagers.

We used the assumption of 110 to win 100 for the actual data, and 120 to win 100 for the buy down/up data. If you wish to use different odds for the buy down/up data you can simply download the spreadsheet and apply whatever variables you see fit.

The “Net Advantage” column in the spreadsheet shows the plus or minus net that would have occurred from buying the Line up or down at each data point.

Some of the findings are obvious, and some of them not so obvious.

There are some definitive differences between NCAAF and the NFL at some data points, and overall there is much more of an advantage to buying the Line up a half point, than there is buying it down.

The findings are as follows.

Buying The Line Down When Playing a Favorite

NCAAF

  • When the Line is 3 the net advantage is $570 with 15 games being moved from the Push to the Win Column
  • When the Line is 7.5 the advantage is $140 with 6 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column though still an overall loss at this data point
  • When the Line is 14.5 the advantage is $270 with 5 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column though still an overall loss at this data point
  • No other data points provide an advantage

NFL

  • When the Line is 3 the net advantage is $710 with 21 games being moved from the Push to the Win Column though still an overall loss at this data point
  • When the Line is 3.5 the advantage is $260 with 6 games being moved from the Loss to the Push column
  • No other data points provide an advantage

*

Buying The Line Up When Playing a Underdog

NCAAF

  • When the Line is 2.5 the net advantage is $680 with 12 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column
  • When the Line is 3 the advantage is $350with 15 games being moved from the Push to the Win Column  though still at an overall loss at this data point
  • When the Line is 6.5 the advantage is $460 with 10 games being moved from the Loss to the Push column though still at an overall loss at this data point
  • When the Line is 9.5 the net advantage is $390 with 6 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column
  • When the Line is 13.5 the net advantage is $400 with 7 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column

NFL

  • When the Line is 2.5 the net advantage is $260 with5 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column
  • When the Line is 3 the advantage is $1230 with 21 games being moved from the Push to the Win Column
  • When the Line is 6.5 the advantage is $260 with 4 games being moved from the Loss to the Push
  • When the Line is 9.5 the net advantage is $110 with 3 games being moved from the Loss to the Push Column though still at an overall loss at this data point
  • When the Line is 14 the net advantage is $20 with 1 game being moved from the Push to the Win Column

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats
*
*

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BUY_DOWN_AS_FAVORITE – Analysis for buying down a half point as a Favorite for NCAAF and NFL
  2. BUY_UP_AS_DOG  – Analysis of buying up a half point as an Underdog for NCAAF and NFL

*

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

*

Advertisements
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: