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College Football – An Historic Analysis Of Q3 ML/ATS/Total Performance By Team

We posted data through Q2 about a month ago, and thought it was worth continuing into Q3.

You can find the original post here.

To recap, we have tracked  how teams have done comparatively across different time frames with in a season.

The time-frames are defined as follows for NCAAF:

  • Weeks 01-04 are Q1
  • Weeks 05-08 are Q2
  • Weeks 09-12 are Q3
  • Weeks 13-Through the Bowl Games are Q4

The analysis of the Q3 history in College Football indicates there are several teams whose ML/ATS/Total performances have been measurably different as compared to other time frames.

For example, Ole Miss has historically been a very strong Q2 team ATS covering 66.7%, but for Q3 their ATS cover rate drops dramatically to just 37.5%.  The current Rebel team has held true to this trend and are undefeated Q2 season-to-date Q2 ATS. We will be using this information to look to make a case to fade Ole Miss ATS as part of our overall handicapping process.

We say this all the time,  but we want to be absolutely clear that any of these trends in a vacuum are no reason in and of itself to play a side or total.  This data should be used as just one more piece of information in your handicapping.

Some of this we said in our original post but it bears repeating:

  • There has been a noteworthy consistency to this data for several teams, and we believe it is worth your while to familiarize yourself with the information.
  • There are a lot of arguments that can be made as to why these trends occur for some teams from quarter to quarter over time.  Coaching philosophies, scheduling, QB’s that start slow, and odds-makers’ adjustments all play apart in the fluctuations we see between time-frames for some of the teams.
  • When using this reference it is important that you keep in mind situations such as coaching or impact roster changes that would render historic data much less useful.  Obviously for teams that have enjoyed coaching and player continuity, the data should tend to hold more true.
  •  The baseline represents all results for a given team across all time-frames.

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets for both the NFL and NCAAF:

  • ML_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ML WIN % BY TEAM
  • ATS_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – ATS WIN % BY TEAM
  • TOTAL_HISTORY_Q1-Q4 – TOTAL OVER WIN % BY TEAM
  • SUMMARY_HISTORY_Q1-Q3 – ML/ATS/TOTAL COUNTS BY FAV/OVER FOR Q1, Q2, Q3, AND A BASELINE PERIODS

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • THE DATA REPRESENTS A 5 YEAR HISTORY AND IS GROUPED BY QUARTER
  • ML AND ATS PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OR WIN %
  • TOTAL PERCENTS ARE IN TERMS OF PERCENT OF GAMES THAT WENT OVER
  • THE BASELINE PERIOD REPRESENTS ALL DATA FOR ALL TIME-FRAMES BY TEAM
  • For Q3 any Historic percentages >= 60% are highlighted in green
  • For Q3, any Historic – Baseline differences of >= 10% are highlighted in green and any <=-10% in red
  • For Q3 as compared to Q2, any differences of >= 20% are highlighted in green and <=20% in red
  • Under the column “Best Quarter” is Q3 it is highlighted in green, and if “Worst Quarter” highlighted in red
  • ALL PUSHES HAVE BEEN OMITTED

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL DATA

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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  1. November 17, 2012 at 4:46 pm

    Thanks for the kind words and please feel free to reach out at any time.

    Best of luck.

  2. November 17, 2012 at 11:49 am

    Great site glad I found it–keep up the good work!

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