Home > 2012 Season, 2012/2013 Season, NFL, Selections, Sides and Totals, Site Features, Twitter Question > Using Turnover Differential To Help Sniff Out a Better Breed Of Dogs

Using Turnover Differential To Help Sniff Out a Better Breed Of Dogs

If you are like us, the first thing you check for when reviewing  the current week’s football card is what Dogs are worth consideration.

And once again if you are like us, you usually wind up with more Dogs circled than you know what to do with

We have found that one of the most effective methods of filtering potential Money Line and ATS Dogs plays is to take the time to analyze the turnover differential between the two teams.

Over time for both College Football and the NFL we have seen a real advantage to focusing only on the Underdogs with equal or better Season-To-Date turnover numbers, than the Favorites that they are playing against.

Our approach to doing this is fairly simple and well worth the effort.

As part of your handicapping, calculate the following using Cumulative Season-To-Date Turnover Statistics:

1. For Favorite – STD Favorite TO Diff = (Total STD Favorite Defensive TOs – Total STD Favorite Offensive TOs)

2. For Underdog – STD Underdog TO Diff = (Total STD Underdog Defensive TOs – Total STD Underdog Offensive TOs)

3. Calculate – TO Advantage = (STD Favorite TO Diff – STD Underdog TO Diff)

4. If TO Advantage is positive it favors the chalk, if TO Advantage is negative it favors the Dog, and if TO Advantage = 0, obviously they are even.

5. Handicap only games where the TO Advantage is either Even or favors the Underdog.

We want to be clear that we are not suggesting playing Dogs that simply match this one criteria.

What we are saying is that method has proved to be a powerful and profitable approach to shortlisting games that you can then handicap via your traditional process.

For those of you who prefer that we do the heavy lifting, users of our site will see that, where applicable, we have begun including the tag, “*** TURNOVERS FAVOR UNDERDOG ***, in the notes section of our Select and Print Function for both NCAAF and the NFL.

*

The images below show both historical and current season Money Line and ATS cover rates for both College Football and the NFL broken down by which side had the Season-To-Date Turnover Advantage going into the game.

As you will see, there is some compelling data for focusing only on Dogs, either straight up or ATS, that have an equal or better Season-To-Date Turnover Differential.

NCAAF ML/ATS BREAKDOWN BY TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL

**************************************************************************************************

NFL ML/ATS BREAKDOWN BY TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL

A Few Notes On The Process:

  • For Week 01 games for any new season we use the Prior  Seasons cumulative turnover data, so for example for the Current Season Week 01 we would have used all 2011/2012 turnover information.
  • For Week 02 games we would have only used Week 01 turnover data.
  • For Weeks 03-XX, we use the cumulative Season-To-Date turnover information, so for example when analyzing Week 07 games, Weeks 01-06 turnover data would be included.
  • All Pushes Have Been Omitted.

Some Observations From The NCAAF Data:

Money Line – When The Dog Had The Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 13.1% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 7.8% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 8.4% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 4.1% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Money Line – When Dog/Favorite Had Equal Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 7.0% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 1.7% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 16.7% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 12.4% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

*

ATS – When The Dog Had The Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 9.4% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 6.8% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 3.3% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a .7% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

ATS – When Dog/Favorite Had Equal Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 8.0% better chance of winning ATS than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 5.4% better chance of winning ATS than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 12.3% better chance of winning ATS than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 9.7% better chance of winning ATS than the Baseline of All Games

Some Observations From The NFL Data:

*** THE CURRENT NFL STD HAS BEEN VERY TOP HEAVY WITH UNDERDOGS-MAKE SURE TO FOCUS ON THE ALL HISTORY RESULTS AS NOT TO SKEW THE STD OUTCOME EXPECTATIONS FOR DOGS GOING FORWARD ***

Money Line – When The Dog Had The Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 10.6% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 10.9% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 8.6% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 4.3% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Money Line – When Dog/Favorite Had Equal Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 7.7% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 8.1% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 35.3% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 31.0% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

*

ATS – When The Dog Had The Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a 6.9% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 10.8% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 11.7% better chance of winning outright than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 8.8% better chance of winning outright than the Baseline of All Games

ATS – When Dog/Favorite Had Equal Turnover Advantage

All History

  • The Dog had a -4.1% better chance of winning ATS than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a -.2% better chance of winning ATS than the Baseline of All Games

Current Season-To-Date

  • The Dog had a 16.4% better chance of winning ATS than when the Favorite had better TO numbers
  • The Dog had a 13.4% better chance of winning ATS than the Baseline of All Games

If you have any questions, problems, or just want to comment please reach out to us via Twitter @GreyMatterStats .

Thanks and best of luck to everyone.

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