Home > 2012 Season, 2012/2013 Season, NFL, Trends > NFL Week 03 – A Few Things At Least Worth Knowing Before You Pull The Trigger On The Giants, Packers, Cowboys, or Redskins

NFL Week 03 – A Few Things At Least Worth Knowing Before You Pull The Trigger On The Giants, Packers, Cowboys, or Redskins

Those of you familiar with our site know that we like to inform our readers/users whenever we come across any trends that we feel are worthy of a closer look.

In reviewing Week 03 history in the NFL we found a few things that jumped out at us relating to the performance of teams who in Week 03 are either on the road, or at home for the first time in the new season.

Coming into this Week 03, the Giants and the Packers had back to back home games, and the Cowboys and the Redskins were on the road for their first two games.

So when handicapping the games these four teams are playing you may want to take into consideration some of the following information.

We want to caution everyone that the sample size is far from substantial, but the findings intrigued us non-the-less.

Over the past five NFL season there has been 14 times when a team has opened a season with back to back home games, and 14 times when a team has opened a season with back to back road games.

An analysis of how those 28 situations performed in their Week 03 games provides some interesting side and total data for consideration in your handicapping.

In our rolling history, out of a possible 80 Week 03 games, 14 or 17.5% of the games met the criteria of back to back road games, and 14 or 17.5% met the criteria of back to back home games, leading into their Week 03 match-up.

In the analysis we looked at how teams in these roles fared in Week 03 across  number of variables such as:

  • Money Line Result broken down by how the team had done straight up in their first two outings
  • ATS Result broken down by how the team had done ATS in their first two outings
  • Total Result broken down by the team’s total result in the first two outings
  • ML/ATS/Total results as a Week 03 Favorite and Dog
  • ML/ATS/Total results broken down by the sample team’s opponent’s travel history – In other words were their opponents home or away in their Week 01/02 games

Some Observations For Teams That Were On The Road For Their First Two Games Of The Season and Home For Week 03

  • Teams in this role lost an astounding 84.6% of the time ATS, posting a record 2-11-1
  • Teams that were Favorites in this role were 0.0% ATS (you read that right), posting a record of 0-9-1.
  • The points have definitely come into play in many of these games – As high as the ATS losing percentages have been the Money Line break down has been 50/50 for Favorites and Dogs
  • In the six cases where their first two games have gone Under, their Week 03 game has gone Over 83.3%

HISTORY OF NFL TEAMS WHO WERE ON THE ROAD THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF A NEW SEASON AND HOW THEY FARED IN WEEK 03 AT HOME

Some Observations For Teams That Were Home For Their First Two Games Of The Season and On The Road For Week 03

  • Teams in this role lost straight up 64.3%, posting a record 5-9
  • Teams in this role were 57.1% ATS, posting a record of 8-6
  • Teams that were Favorites in this role were 25.0% ATS, posting a record of 1-3-1, while teams that were Dogs in this role were 70.0%, posting a record of 7-3
  • Once again, the points have definitely come into play in many of these games

HISTORY OF NFL TEAMS WHO WERE AT HOME FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF A NEW SEASON AND HOW THEY FARED IN WEEK 03 ON THE ROAD

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We want to reiterate that there is not a tremendous amount of data reflected in this analysis, but still thought it warranted us passing it along for you to make use of how you see fit.

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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