Home > 2012 Season, 2012/2013 Season, General Information, NFL, Projections > GreyMatterStats 2012/2013 NFL Projected Win Totals and Standings

GreyMatterStats 2012/2013 NFL Projected Win Totals and Standings

UPDATED 07/17/2012 – PLEASE NOTE THAT WE HAVE UPDATED SOME PROJECTED TEAM WIN TOTALS AS WELL AS OUR PROJECTED STANDINGS.

UPDATED 6/26/2012 WITH CURRENT CONSENSUS WIN TOTAL OVER/UNDERS

In an earlier post we explained why we project out entire seasons well before the actual start of football.  You can find that explanation here in case you missed it, GreyMatterStats 2012 College Football Projected Win Totals and Conference Standings.

At the risk of being repetitive,I do want to once again acknowledge that the idea for us publishing this information came from articles that we read at  www.beyondthebets.com (BTB).

BTB is always on top of things such as NFL Win Totals, and their forums offer intelligent conversation and debate.

The screen capture below shows our projected win totals as well as the overlay in regards to the current Over/Under win total for each team.

2012/2013 NFL PROJECTED TEAM WIN TOTALS

For a much more in depth look at the projected 2012/2013 NFL Season please see the spreadsheet below where you will find our projected team win totals and outcomes for each game on the schedule, as well as our projected final divisional standings complete with overall, division, conference, non-conference projected records.

Some noteworthy observations from the projections:

Overs – Teams that are worth a look in this role are the Raiders, the Jets, and the Bills.

Unders – Teams that are worth a look in this role are the Panthers, the Chiefs, and the Titans.

Projected Division Winners

AFC East – New England

AFC North – Baltimore – On a Tie-Breaker Over Pittsburgh

AFC South – Houston

AFC West – San Diego

NFC East – New York

NFC North – Green Bay

NFC South – New Orleans

NFC West – San Francisco

Some Caveats and Food For Thought Regarding This Data

  • It should go without saying that this information should be used as a tool in your futures handicapping, and not a bible to go by.
  • At this point in the calendar year there are many more things that could go wrong for a team than could go right before the season starts, so we would be focusing more on Under situations than Overs right now.
  • We tend to look for teams whose Over/Under bet-able totals are in the range of 6.5 – 8.5.  We just feel that is where you can find value in both directions.
  • Quarterback changes wreak havoc on our pre-season projections.  While we attempt to account for historic performance in the case of a veterans changing teams, such as Manning, there is no telling if a new team or scheme will significantly impact a quarterback’s expected output.
  • New Orleans remains full of question marks, so we have intentionally left them off the list of notable Overs.  That said, we are showing a substantial Overlay towards the Over and believe they are worth serious consideration in this role.
  • The Eagles, who we are projecting at 9 wins, -1 from their current number of 10, have some significant scheduling anomalies including
  1. Week 04 – Eagles at home against the Giants coming off 10 days rest
  2. Week 05 – Eagles on the road against the Steelers coming off a bye week
  3. Week  06 – Eagles at home against the Lions coming off a bye week
  4. Week 08 – Eagles at home against the Falcons with both teams coming off a bye week
  5. Week 11 – Eagles on the road against the Redskins coming off a bye week
  6. Week 13 – Eagles, on a short week having played a Monday night in Week 12 home game, on the road against the Cowboys coming off 10 days rest

In the embedded Excel workbook below, you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_TEAM – PROJECTED WIN TOTALS BY TEAM
  2. BY_WINS – PROJECTED WIN TOTALS – BY WINS
  3. BY_OVERLAY – PROJECTED WIN TOTALS BY OVERLAY BASED ON THE CURRENT TOTAL WINS OVER/UNDER
  4. BY_TEAM_DETAIL – SHOWS EACH TEAM’S GAME BY GAME PROJECTED RESULT
  5. PROJECTED_STANDINGS – PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us @GreyMatterStats

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  1. September 19, 2012 at 8:56 pm

    Hi Les,

    I assume you read the posting and understand that our goal in this exercise was to get a feel for how we might project each team against their win total for the year.

    Based on our analysis we had both the 49ers, whose win total was 10, and Bears, whose win total was 9, pegged as Unders.

    There is still alot of football to be played and we will be updating this post all season as team win totals change.

    Personally, I remain short on the Bears, but the 49ers have looked much better than we anticipated.

    It was our expectation that the 49ers would take some sort of a step backwards this year.

    Based on their two games, that certainly does not seem to be the case.

    Their defense looks rock solid and their “ball control old fashion the run sets up the pass” offense has played to the strength of how they are set up as a team and it has worked perfectly so far.

    The job Harbaugh has done has just been amazing.

    Would love to hear your thoughts on these two teams if you care to share them.

    We would like to think we know at least a little bit about football, but we are always willing to learn.

  2. September 19, 2012 at 8:55 pm

    Hi Les,

    I assume you read the posting and understand that our goal in this exercise was to get a feel for how we might project each team against their win total for the year.

    Based on our analysis we had both the 49ers, whose win total was 10, and Bears, whose win total was 9, pegged as Unders.

    There is still alot of football to be played and we will be updating this post all season as team win totals change.

    Personally, I remain short on the Bears, but the 49ers have looked much better than we anticipated.

    It was our expectation that the 49ers would take some sort of a step backwards this year.

    Based on their two games, that certainly does not seem to be the case.

    Their defense looks rock solid and their “ball control old fashion the run sets up the pass” offense has played to the strength of how they are set up as a team and it has worked perfectly so far.

    The job Harbaugh has done has just been amazing.

    Would love to hear your thoughts on these two teams if you care to share them.

    We would like to think we know at least a little bit about football, but we are always willing to learn.

  3. September 4, 2012 at 5:06 am

    Les Newton :if you think the 49ers are going to win only 8 games and the bears only 7, i would assume you know nothing at all about football.

  4. September 4, 2012 at 5:03 am

    if you think the 49ers are going to win only 8 games and the bears only 7, i ould assume you know nothing at all about football.

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