Home > General Information, NFL, Trends, User Questions > NFL Week 17 Trend – Look at the Favorite in games where the Dog has a better Season To Date SU Record

NFL Week 17 Trend – Look at the Favorite in games where the Dog has a better Season To Date SU Record

There are some great questions asked on Twitter regarding trends that we are happy to answer, if possible.

One of the Twitter feeds that we follow, @WagerMinds (which we highly recommend by the way), has a feature that they call “Friday Database Happy Hour” where followers send NFL ATS questions and  @WagerMinds answers them.

This past Friday, a twitter follower, @DownIsTheNewUp_,  asked the question “How often had teams with better record been dogs in week 17 and how did they fare ATS?”

We happened to have some data available to help answer this question, so we ran a few queries and found some surprisingly strong Week 17 trends in regards to the question at hand.

Please note:

  • For the analysis we used our rolling five year historic archive
  • The situation is Week 17 teams who are Underdogs but have a better season to date record than the Favorite

The results were as follows:

  • A surprising 23 out of the 80 possible games fell into this role, or 28.8% of the games
  • Straight Up, the Favorites were 19-3, or 86.4%
  • ATS, the Favorites were 14-7-1, or 66.7%
  • In the Totals, Overs were 13-9, or 59.1%

Click the image below to enlarge.

*

Stating the obvious, the Favorite is a VERY strong play in these games both Straight Up and ATS.

In this Week 17 edition of the NFL, four games meet this criteria:

  • Chicago is a better record Dog to Minnesota -2
  • Green Bay is a better record Dog to Detroit -5
  • Houston is a better record Dog to Tennessee -2
  • The New York Jets are a better record Dog to Miami -3

*****  THE DATA WOULD SUGGEST A STRONG LOOK AT THE FOUR FAVORITES *****

I would like to thank @DownIsTheNewUp_ for helping to bring this to our attention and @WagerMinds for all the great content they provide.

If you should have any questions please feel free to reach out to us via twitter @GreyMatterStats or email us admin@greymatterstats.com.

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