Home > General Information, ncaaf, ncaaf trends, Trends > Bowl Game Cover Rates By Money Line, ATS, and Total – A 5 Year History

Bowl Game Cover Rates By Money Line, ATS, and Total – A 5 Year History

Bowl season is almost upon us; kind of hard to believe that it is here already.

We will be providing a short write-up for each individual game, but thought it would be interesting to take a look at the history of all the Bowls over the past five years in regards to cover rates straight up, ATS, and for the totals.

Please note that in cases where a Bowl Game has a new sponsor, we have consolidated the history under the current Bowl Game name.  Also, we have included history for the International Bowl which is no longer being played as of 2011.

Obviously the sample sizes are not huge, but “Bowl Game Constants” such as disappointed teams, disinterested teams, distracted teams, unfamiliarity, and long layoffs, make this data worth a look.

To be clear, we are not advocating that you make any selections based solely on information such as this, but hope that it provides some extra ammo for you when making a case for or against a side or a total.

If when reviewing this data you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

There a three images below that can be expanded by clicking on them, they are as follows:

  1. Straight Up, ATS, and Total Cover Rates By Bowl Game
  2. ATS Cover Rate By Closing Lines For Bowl Games
  3. Total Cover Rates By Closing Totals for Bowl Games

Some observations:

  • For all Bowl Games, the Favorite had a straight up record of 109-53, or 67.3% – For the same 5 year time-frame in regular season games the Favorite won straight up 75.1% meaning a Dog is 7.8% more likely in win outright in a Bowl Game    
  • For all Bowl Games, the Favorite had a ATS record of 80-78-4, or 50.6% – No material difference for the same 5 year time-frame in regular season games
  • For all Bowl Games, the Under had a record of 86-73-3, or 54.1% – For the same 5 year time-frame in regular season games the Under was the side 51.4% meaning the Under is a slight edge at 2.7% more likely to occur in a Bowl Game
  • Straight Up Favorites have been the best bet in The Alamo, Beef O’Brady, Independence, and Military Bowls – Dogs have been the best bet Straight Up in The Chick Fil-A Bowl
  • ATS Favorites have been the best bet in The Beef O’Brady, Independence, and Military Bowls – Dogs have been the best bet ATS in The Chick Fil-A, Champs Sports, Fiesta, Liberty, and Sun Bowls
  • Overs have been the best bet in the New Orleans, and Military Bowls – Unders have been the best best in the Compass, and Orange Bowls
  • ATS, when the Line has been less than 2.5, the Favorite has been a VERY STRONG play
  • ATS, when the Line has been 3.5, the Dog has been a VERY STRONG play
  • Totals between 50.5-59.5 have been the strongest trend with the Under being 43-24 or 64.2%

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