Home > General Information, NewsLetter, Projections, Site Features, Trends > When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated

When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated

Each week we will be tracking this niche trend that has performed very well season to date.

The embedded spreadsheet found below, tracks the individual games and provides outcome statistics.

To meet the criteria for a “Favorite Flip” a game must:

  1. Have a switch from the Opening Favorite to the Closing Favorite
  2. Have the game Open as a Pick, then the Road Team wind up being the Closing Favorite
  3. Have the Opening Favorite be the Road team, then have the game close as a Pick

These games have lost significant steam over the past few weeks but we will continue to follow them.

College Football Week Ending 12/12/2011 – No Games

  1. None

Season to Date in College Football, the Home teams now stands at 12-8 both straight up and ATS, or 60.0%

NFL Week Ending 12/19/2011 – No Games

  1. Oakland opened as a 1 point Favorite against Detroit, and closed as a 2.5 point Home Dog – Detroit won the game 28-27 but the Raiders covered ATS *** This is the first game in this role this season where the points came into play ATS ***
  2. Buffalo opened as a 1.5 point Favorite against Miami, and closed as a 1 point Home Dog – Miami won the game 30-23

In the NFL, the Favorite Flip Home team’s Money Line record to 12-11 or 52.2%, and ATS record to 13-10 or 56.5%.

Games For The Week Ending 12/19/2011

Current NCAAF Games that meet the criteria:

  1. None

Current NFL Games that meet the criteria:

  1. Kansas City opened as a 3 point Dog against Oakland, and now Kansas City is a 1.5 point Home Favorite

Please keep in mind, that in our model, when a game is a pick, the Home team is considered the Favorite.

We will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below with any other games that meet the criteria for the coming weekend.

Just so our users know, as you page through the games on our detail screen, “Favorite Flips” are easy to spot.  In the header for each game, we show the Open and Current Favorite by Away or Home team.  Whenever the Opening Favorite is not equal to the Current Favorite, we highlight this important piece of information as shown below.

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In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – STATS, HISTORIC AND CURRENT GAMES
  2. NFL_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – STATS, HISTORIC AND CURRENT GAMES

***** PLEASE MAKE SURE TO SCROLL DOWN EACH WORKSHEET TO SEE THIS WEEK’S CURRENT GAMES *****

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On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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