Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated

Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated

We have decided to break out the trends we follow in to a separate Blog entry from which we will track the week to week performance.

We want to be clear that we are not advocating that you use any of these roles in a vacuum.

This data should be just one more piece of information that you use in your overall handicapping process.

The embedded spreadsheet includes all games that have fit the role, and tracks the weekly and Season to Date performance.

Trend #01 – Total Results Indicated By Range of the Closing Totals

When the Total is <42.5 or > 49.5 the Over is:

  • 4-5,  44.4%, For Current Week
  • 54-43,  55.7%, Season To Date
  • 6 out 13 winning weeks

When the Total is between 42.5 and 49.5 the Under is:

  • 3-4,  42.9%, For Current Week
  • 55-39,  58.5%, Season To Date
  • 6 out 11 winning weeks – Pushed 2 Weeks

Please note that when using our SHARP Data Mining Tool, some percentages will vary slightly from what we are reporting here due to the fact that in the SHARP system games where we were projecting a Push are omitted from the query results.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Total Range to either Minimum of 0 and Maximum of 42 for the Over, or Minimum of 50 and the Maximum of 999 for the Over, or the Minimum of 42.5 and the Maximum of 49.5 for the Under
  • Please note that you will have to execute three separate queries to see both Over and the one Under situation
  • Set the output to display in terms of Line which is the default
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

Trend # 02 – Total As An Indicator Of The Line Result

When the Total was less than 42.5, the Underdog is:

  • 3-4,  42.9%, For Current Week
  • 41-30,  57.7%, Season To Date
  • 7 out 11 winning weeks – 2 Weeks Pushed

 When the Total greater than 45, the Favorite is:

  • 2-3,  40.0%, For Current Week
  • 33-29,  53.2%, Season To Date
  • 5 out 10 winning weeks – Pushed 3 Weeks

In this view of the data we are using the Total as an indicator of the Line result.

So far this NFL Season, there are some very clear grouping of Line and Total Outcomes, where we are seeing a very high percentage of Overs and Unders at certain Total ranges.

One of the things we like to do, is to look for even more finite filters to apply where we see the data “grouping”.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Total Range to either 45.5-999 for the Favorite research or 0-42 for the Underdog research
  • Please note that you will have to execute two separate queries to see the Favorite and the Underdog situations
  • Set the output to display in terms of Line which is the default
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format


Trend # 03 – In Division Games – Go With Our Projected Total Result

Projected Total Correct In Division Games:

  • 2-2,  50.0%, For Current Week
  • 36-22,  62.1%, Season To Date
  • 7 out 9 winning weeks – 2 Weeks Pushed

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Conf/Div Games to Division Games
  • Set the output to display in terms of Total
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. TREND_01_OVER – TREND #01 FOR THE OVER BY WEEK AND OVERALL
  2. TREND_01_UNDER – TREND #01 FOR THE UNDER BY WEEK AND OVERALL
  3. TREND_02_DOG – TREND #02 FOR THE UNDERDOG BY WEEK AND OVERALL
  4. TREND_02_FAVORITE – TREND #02 FOR THE FAVORITE BY WEEK AND OVERALL
  5. TREND_03 – TREND #03 FOR PROJECTED TOTAL OUTCOME BY WEEK AND OVERALL

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

*

Advertisements
  1. No comments yet.
  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: