Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > Some College Football Trends That We Follow * Through End of 2011/2012 Regular Season

Some College Football Trends That We Follow * Through End of 2011/2012 Regular Season

We have decided to break out the trends we follow in to a separate Blog entry from which we will track the week to week performance.

We want to be clear that we are not advocating that you use any of these roles in a vacuum.

Again, this data should be just one more piece of information that you use in your overall handicapping process.

The embedded spreadsheet includes all games that have fit the role, and tracks the weekly and Season to Date performance.

Trend #1 – Where The Projected Line Overlay of Between -20 and -13 – Play the Dog

  • 0-1, 0.0%, For The Current Week
  • 49-35,  58.3%, Season To Date
  • 8 out of 13 winning weeks – Pushed 1 week

The Projected Overlay is defined as follows:

Favorite Projected Score – Underdog Projected Score – Current Line

In cases where the above equation is between -13 and -20, the has been a strong advantage to playing the Dog ATS.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set P Line OL (Short for Projected Line Overlay) to Select Range, then set the Minimum Value to -20 and the Maximum Value to -13
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

Trend #2 – When The Projected Money Line Result is the Underdog – Look At The Dog ATS

  • 2-1, 66.7%, For The Current Week
  • 71-57, 55.5%, Season To Date
  • 7 out of 12 winning weeks – 2 Weeks Pushed

To be clear, the role here is to look at any Underdog ATS, where our Projected Data has them winning outright.

We have gotten some questions as to how this differs from Trend #1, where you look for Dogs with the Projected Line Overlay of between -20 and -13.

Just to clarify:

  • There can be overlap between the two situations-If a team was a 5 point Underdog and we Projected them winning by 10 points outright, then it would fit both scenarios – Overlay -15
  • If a team was getting 17 points and we have them Projected to lose the game by only 3 points, then it would fit only the first scenario – Overlay -14
  • If a team was getting 10 points and we have them winning outright by 1 point, it would only fit the second scenario – Overlay -11

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Projected ML Result to “DOG”
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

Trend #3 – IN GAMES WHERE BOTH TEAMS ARE COMING OFF AN OVER – PLAY THE OVER

  • 1-0,  100.0%, For The Current Week
  • 67-66,  50.4%, Season To Date
  • 5 out of 11 winning weeks – Pushed 2 weeks

There are two ways to finds these games.

First as you pages through the Current games, and select the Game Snap Shot tab which shows you the history for each team leading into the current game as highlighted in the example below.

You can use our SHARP Data Mining Tool to research this trend as well, but for the time being it a bit of a chore to do so.

Currently when you select drop downs for the variable “Total Over/Under”, the selection criteria matches all historic variations exactly as they have occurred.  For example if you were to select Over-02 for the Away team and Over-01 for the Home team, the return would only be situations that match that exact criteria.

If you were to click “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” it would only return games that were an exact match, meaning were the Away team has had two Overs in a row and the Home team had one Over in a row.

This logic would not return all games in which both teams had previously gone Over, regardless of how many times is a row.

We are currently working to implement a wild card for this selection criteria that would allow you to query an “any Over” situation, but for now you would need to review each permeation for the Away and Home team, then click the “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” button for each data return.

We understand this is cumbersome and will inform you as soon as this logic is in place.

Just a note, that if you do use this approach one advantage is that you will be able to see the performance of the data at each interval and may find even higher Over percentages based on certain groupings.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • From the Away Team Streaks Section select on Over variable from the drop down for Total Over/Under
  • From the Home Team Streaks Section select on Over variable from the drop down for Total Over/Under
  • Set the output to display in terms of Total
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format
  • Repeat for any or all Over combinations that are of interest to you

Trend #4 – IN GAMES WHERE BOTH TEAMS ARE COMING OFF A SU LOSS AND THE LINE IS GREATER THAN 7 – TAKE THE DOG ATS

  • 0-2,  0.0%, For The Current Week
  • 43-44,  49.4%, Season To Date
  • 5 out 11 winning weeks – Pushed 2 Weeks

There are two ways to finds these games as well.

Again as you page through the Current games, select the Game Snap Shot tab which shows you the history for each team leading into the current game as highlighted in the example below.

You can also use our SHARP Data Mining Tool to research this trend, but for the same restrictions as described in Trend #3 apply.

If you haven’t read Trend # 3 please take a minute to update yourself on how the logic works for the Data Mining Tool for these types of queries.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • From the Away Team Streaks Section select a “Loss” variable from the drop down for ML Win/Loss
  • From the Home Team Streaks Section select a “Loss” variable from the drop down for ML Win/Loss
  • From the Line select Range and set the Minimum Line to 7.5 and leave the Maximum at the default of 99999
  • Set the output to display in terms of Line – The Default
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format
  • Repeat for any or all ML Won combinations that are of interest to you


In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. TREND_01 – Games and Outcomes Season to Date that have met the criteria for this trend by week and overall
  2. TREND_02 – Games and Outcomes Season to Date that have met the criteria for this trend by week and overall
  3. TREND_03 – Games and Outcomes Season to Date that have met the criteria for this trend by week and overall
  4. TREND_04 – Games and Outcomes Season to Date that have met the criteria for this trend by week and overall

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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