Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 12/05/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 12/05/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

 

NCAAF – Item #1

MAC Championship Game

Northern Illinois(F) vs Ohio University(D)

Line 3 – Total 70.5

Neutral Site – FORD FIELD – DETROIT, MI

Over the last 5 years:

  • Money Line Favorites have been 3-2
  • ATS Dogs have been 3-2
  • In the Totals the Under has been 4-1

Northern Illinois’ one appearance in Championship Game as Favorite – ML Loss, ATS Loss, Total Under

Ohio in two appearances in Championship Games both as Dogs – ML 0-2, ATS 1-1, Total Under 2-0

NCAAF – Item #2

ACC Championship Game

Virginia Tech(F) vs Clemson(D)

Line 7 – Total 53.5

Neutral Site – BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM – CHARLOTTE, NC

Over the last 5 years:

  • Money Line Favorites have been 3-2
  • ATS Favorites have been 3-2
  • In the Totals the Over has been 3-2

Virginia Tech has been in the Championship Game 3 times in the past 5 years: Once as a Dog they were – ML 1-0, ATS 1-0, Total Over 1-0: Twice as a Favorite there were – ML 2-0, ATS 2-0, and Totals were 1-1

Clemson’s one appearance in Championship Game as Dog – ML Loss, ATS Loss, Total Over

NCAAF – Item #3

Conference USA Championship Game

Southern Miss(D) vs Houston(F)

Line 13.5 – Total 72.5

Played at Houston’s ROBERTSON STADIUM

Over the last 5 years:

  • Money Line Favorites have been 3-2
  • ATS Favorites have been 3-2
  • In the Totals the Under has been 3-2

Southern Miss’ one appearance in Championship Game as Favorite – ML Loss, ATS Loss, Total Over

Houston in two appearances in Championship Games both as Favorites – ML 1-1, ATS 1-1, and Totals 1-1

NCAAF – Item #4

SEC Championship Game

Georgia(D) vs LSU(F)

Line 13.5 – Total 46

Neutral Site – GEORGIA DOME – ATLANTA, GA

Over the last 5 years:

  • Money Line Favorites have been 4-1
  • ATS Favorites have been 3-2
  • In the Totals the Over has been 3-2

Georgia has not appeared in the game in the past 5 years

LSU’s one appearance in Championship Game as Favorite – ML Win, ATS Loss, Total Under

NCAAF – Item #5

Big 10 Inaugural Championship Game

Michigan State(D) vs Wisconsin(F)

Line 9.5 – Total 55

Neutral Site – LUCAS OIL STADIUM – INDIANAPOLIS, ON

The two teams met earlier in the year, in a memorable game in which Michigan State succeeded on a Hail Mary at the buzzer.

NCAAF – Item #6

PAC 12 Inaugural Championship Game

UCLA(D) vs Oregon(F)

Line 31 – Total 66

Game to be played at Oregon’s Home Site – AUTZEN STADIUM

The two teams have not played each other this season.

With a HUGE Favorite, little interest, and a lame duck coach in UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel, this first ever PAC-12 Conference Championship has to be viewed as an embarrassment.  Got to think Oregon is going to throttle UCLA, but is anyone crazy about laying 31 points even in this scenario?

NCAAF – Item #7

Most are aware of this, but sadly there will be no Big 12 Conference Championship Game this year.  With the realignment that took place this season, the Big 12 fell under the minimum number of teams allowable to have a Conference Championship Game.

NCAAF – Item #8

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won 71.4% against the Money Line, Dogs are 51.2% ATS, and the Totals are 50.0%.

In Non-Conference Games, the Favorite has won 76.7% against the Money Line, the Dog is 52.4% ATS, and the Under has been 54.0%.

NCAAF – Item #9

History would indicate that this week there would be a bias towards Underdogs.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NCAAF – Item #10

Some useful information from CFT

NCAAF – Item #11

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

 

 NFL – Item #1

 A Game That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, of games that we will be watching from the sideline.

Indianapolis (D) at New England (F)

Line 20 – Total 48

The hapless Colts are starting Daniel Orlovsky at quarterback over Curtis Painter.  Orlovsky has managed about 1800 yards of passing over bits and pieces of 16 NFL games, dating back to 2005.  Gods knows what this guy does on the Road, outdoors on Sunday,

Brady, on the other hand, is just lighting it up and did whatever he wanted against the Eagles last week.

It’s hard to make any case for the Colts here, but in our opinion the Dog or “no play” is the best option whenever an NFL line is this high.

In the past 5 years, New England has laid 20 or more points 3 times, and never once covered ATS.

That said, the Patriots will probably destroy the Colts.  And while Coach Belichick pulled his starters once the Eagles game was a hand-ride, I have a feeling he would be less inclined to show early mercy against one of the few teams who has caused Belichick’s coaching decisions to be questioned and second guessed on the National level.

Laying 20 points in the NFL is not a great situation, and in some cases neither is taking 20 points.

The Pats seem too easy, even at this huge number, but we will be on the sideline for this one.

NFL – Item #2

Season to Date:

  • In Division Games the Favorite is 61.4% SU, ATS the Dog is 53.7%, and in the Totals the Under is 56.1%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 63.6% SU, Dogs are 53.3% ATS, and the Over has been the side 51.4%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 81.0% and 57.1% ATS, and the Under has been the side 51.2%

This weekend features 4 Division, 8 Conference, and 4 Non-Conference games.

NFL – Item #3

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.

As stated above, these have lost some steam but they are still on the plus side.

From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

 NFL – Item #4

Overall for the Current Week the Money Line Favorite were 13-3, ATS Favorites were 9-7,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 9-7.

NFL – Item #5

This week once again, there are some strong historic trends in the NFL for this coming weekend that would indicate a bias towards Underdogs.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NFL – Item #6

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

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