Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 11/14/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 11/14/2011

  • Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

Oregon vs Stanford

We enjoyed the LSU/Alabama defensive battle last week, and think that this week’s Oregon/Stanford game will also be an entertaining game, and actually expect a touchdown to be scored.

Oregon has gone under the radar for most of this season after their Week 1 loss to LSU, but they could re-emerge into the BCS mix with a win.

Stanford and Luck have done all that been asked of them, but they still seem to be perceived as a “nice little team”, with no one really giving them a legit shot at the National Championship.

We look for a good game here, with the Cardinal pulling a win out at the end.

The line is currently Stanford -3.5, and we are Projecting Stanford 41 Oregon 40.

NCAAF – Item #2

Two Neutral Site games this weekend in College Football.

Rutgers and Army tee it up at Yankee Stadium, and Notre Dame and Maryland play at Fedex Field in Landover, MD.

 

NCAAF – Item #3

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won 71.6% against the Money Line, and 51.5% ATS, and the Totals are 52.82% to the Over.

In Non-Conference Games, the Favorite has won 77.4% against the Money Line, the Dog is 53.3% ATS, and the Under has been 52.2%.

NCAAF – Item #4

Overall for Week 10 Favorites were 35-17 to the Money Line, ATS Dogs were 30-22,  and in the Totals, the Overs were 28-24.

NCAAF – Item #5

Last week we wrote about a bias towards Underdogs and Overs.  The Dogs were a strong 57.7% ATS and the Over was 53.8%.

This week history would indicate a bias towards Favorites and a slight indication towards to Under.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NCAAF – Item #6

Some useful information from CFT.

NCAAF – Item #7

There are currently “Favorite Flip” situations in NCAAF.

These have lost some steam, but still on the plus side.

From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NCAAF – Item #8

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Baylor(F) at Kansas(D) – Baylor home against Oklahoma next week
  • Alabama(F) at Mississippi St(D) – Possible Bama let down game on the heels of  the LSU loss

NCAAF – Item #9

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

 NFL – Item #1

 A Game That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, of games that we will be watching from the sideline.

No games on this week’s NFL card that fall into this category for us.

NFL – Item #2

Season to Date:

  • In Division Games the Favorite is 62.2% SU, ATS the Dog is 51.4%, and in the Totals the Under is 56.8%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 62.1% SU, Dogs are 54.7% ATS, and the Over has been the side 52.4%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 85.2% and 55.6% ATS, and the Over has been the side 51.9%

This weekend features 6 Division, 2 Conference, and 6 Non-Conference games.

NFL – Item #3

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.

As stated above, these have lost some steam but they are still on the plus side.

From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

 NFL – Item #4

Overall for the Current Week the Money Line was 7-7, Dogs were 8-6 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 9-4.

NFL – Item #5

Last week we wrote about a bias towards Underdogs and Overs.  The Dogs were 57.1%, but the Over was not very strong.

This week once again, there are some strong historic trends in the NFL for this coming weekend that would indicate a bias towards Underdogs and  Overs.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NFL – Item #6

 Season To Date Post Bye Week Results

ALL TEAMS COMING OFF BYE WEEK
CLOSING FAV A OR H ML FAV ML DOG ATS FAV ATS DOG OVER UNDER
AWAY FAVORITE 6 2 6 2 4 4
HOME FAVORITE 11 5 7 8 3 13
ALL 17 7 13 10 7 17
AWAY TEAM COMING OFF BYE WEEK
CLOSING FAV A OR H ML FAV ML DOG ATS FAV ATS DOG OVER UNDER
AWAY FAVORITE 4 2 4 2 3 3
HOME FAVORITE 6 3 3 5 1 8
ALL 10 5 7 7 4 11
HOME TEAM COMING OFF BYE WEEK
CLOSING FAV A OR H ML FAV ML DOG ATS FAV ATS DOG OVER UNDER
AWAY FAVORITE 2 0 2 0 1 1
HOME FAVORITE 5 2 4 3 2 5
ALL 7 2 6 3 3 6

Worth noting:

  • ATS when the Home team is coming off the Bye – Favorites have been  6-3
  • Under has been 8-1 in games where Away Team is coming off a Bye and there is a Home Favorite
  • Overall when any team is coming off a Bye, the Under has been  17-7

 

How Team with a Week 8 Bye did in Week 9:

  • Falcons on the road against the Colts –  ML WIN – ATS WIN – UNDER
  • Bears on the Road against the Eagles – ML WIN – ATS WIN – OVER
  • Packers on the Road against the Chargers – ML WIN – ATS WIN – OVER
  • Jets on the Road against the Bills – ML WIN – ATS WIN – UNDER
  •  Raiders at Home against the Broncos – ML LOSS – ATS LOSS – OVER
  • Bucs on the Road against the Saints – ML LOSS – ATS LOSS – UNDER

Teams who had a Week 9

  • Panthers at Home against the Titans
  • Lions on the Road against the Bears
  • Jaguars on the Road against the Colts
  • Vikings on the Road against the Packers

NFL – Item #7

If you haven’t seen it yet, you might want to review our Blog on the Pre and Post Bye Week records of NFL teams with individual  and aggregate statistics.

NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Stats By Team and Overall

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Texans at the Bucs – Texans Bye next week
  • Colts host the Jaguars – Colts Bye next week
  • Saints at Atlanta – Saints Bye next week
  • Steelers at Bengals – Steelers Bye next week

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #8

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

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