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NFL Week 9 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Current Week Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Current Week Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of NFL trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titles, Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated.

Overview

Overall for the Current Week the Money Line was 7-7, Dogs were 8-6 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 9-4.

Now, Season to date the Favorites are 87-43 against the Money Line, Dogs are ahead 65-61 ATS, and in the Totals the Under is 64-63.  It is interesting to note that the Under has come back VERY strongly, after so many early season Overs.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 7-7 50.0%
  • ATS –  9-4   69.2%
  • Totals  8-4  66.7%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 76-54 – 58.5%
  • ATS –  62-61   50.4%
  • Totals  70-53  56.9%

S

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Current Week Line
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Current Week Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 7 Data: 

  • STD the Projected Success Rate for Totals has been 74.3% in Division Games
  • STD in Division Games with Away Favorite the Dog has been 66.7% ATS
  • STD in Division Games with Home Favorite the Under has been 62.5%
  • STD in Non-Conference Games the Favorite has been 85.2% SU
  • STD in Non-Conference Games with Away Favorite the Favorite has been 77.8% ATS
  • STD in Non-Conference Games with Away Favorite the Over have been 66.7%
  • STD in Division Games with Away Favorite the Home Team has been 66.7%
  • STD in Non-Conference Games the Away Team has been 63.0%
  • In Week 9 Projected outcomes was 69.2% ATS and 66.7% for the Totals
  • In Week 9 in Conference Games the Dogs were 66.7%
  • The ATS Public Consensus was up to 53.8% correct

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted

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On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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