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NCAAF Week 10 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Current Week Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Current Week Totals.


Overall for Week 10 Favorites were 35-17 to the Money Line, ATS Dogs were 30-22,  and in the Totals, the Overs were 28-24.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 36-16  69.2%
  • ATS –  31-21   59.6%
  • Totals  26-26 50.0%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line  355-135  72.6%
  • ATS –  247-230    52.0%
  • Totals  235-242  49.5%

You can read more about this, and other NCAAF trends that we follow here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Current Week Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Current Week Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 7 Data: 

  • STD in Non-Conference Games with Away Favorite Projections have been 60.4% correct for both ATS and the Total
  • STD  Home Favorites are 76.0% for the Money Line
  • STD in games with Away Favorite the Under has been 54.1%
  • STD in games with Home Favorite the Over has been 53.1%
  • In Week 10 Conference Games the Dog was 59.6% ATS
  • In Week 10 Conference Games with Away Favorite the Under was 66.7%
  • In Week 10 Conference Games with Home Favorite the Over was 72.4%
  • In Week 10 Conference Games with a Home Favorite the Away Team was 62.1% ATS
  • The ATS Public Consensus was down again to 40.4%

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window


We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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