Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 11/07/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 11/07/2011

  • Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

LSU vs Alabama

We thought we should chime in on this season’s version of the “Game of The Century”.

There is a lot that can, and already has been, said regarding Bama’s opponents, Home field advantage, Miles vs Saban,  how the QB’s will fare against the best respective defenses they have seen all year, so we will keep it short and sweet.

We have really dissected this one, and candidly think a case can be made for either side here.

These teams seem very evenly matched.

And with that said, we would take a good look at LSU +5.5 here.

It is worth noting that historically, LSU/Alabama games have fallen very close to the posted Total over the years.

Currently the Total is around 42, down 1.5 points from the open.

Funny things sometimes happen, when two very good defenses get together and our sense would be the Over is worth some consideration.

We are Projecting LSU 26 Bama 29

NCAAF – Item #2

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won 72.4% against the Money Line, and 52.4% ATS, and the Totals are 51.2% to the Over.

In Non-Conference Games, the Favorite has won 74.2% against the Money Line, the Dog is 53.0% ATS, and the Under has been 51.4%.

 

NCAAF – Item #3

Overall for Week 9 Favorites were 40-13 to the Money Line, ATS Favorites were 29-23,  and in the Totals, the Overs were 28-24.

NCAAF – Item #4

There are some very strong historic trends in College Football for this coming weekend that would indicate a strong bias towards Underdogs and Overs.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NCAAF – Item #5

Some useful information from CFT.

‘Cocks expect to have leading tackler vs. Hogs

UCLA’s Riley out vs. Sun Devils

Kentucky to go with Smith at QB against Ole Miss

McDermott likely to start at QB for SMU despite injury

Two UNLV starters among five suspended for Boise St.

NCAAF – Item #6

There are currently four “Favorite Flip” situation in NCAAF.

In College Football, Season To Date Home Teams have been 8-2, in this role.

From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NCAAF – Item #7

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • New Mexico State(D) at Georgia(F) – Georgia home against Auburn next week
  • Boise State(F) at UNLV(D) – Boise home against TCU next week
  • Middle TN(D) at Tennessee(F) – Vols on the road against Arkansas next week
  • LSU(D) at Alabama(F) – LSU home against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers next(Just kidding-Wanted to see if you were paying attention)

NCAAF – Item #8

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

NCAAF ITEM #9

Below is a list of teams the we have covered ATS at a rate of 60.0% or more season to date.

TEAM

ATS

OVERALL

COVER RATE

STANFORD CARDINAL

100.00%

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

87.50%

CLEMSON TIGERS

87.50%

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

87.50%

ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES

85.70%

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

85.70%

LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS

85.70%

LSU FIGHTIN’ TIGERS

85.70%

UTEP MINERS

85.70%

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

85.70%

WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS

85.70%

EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES

83.30%

LA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN’ CAJUNS

75.00%

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

75.00%

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES

75.00%

DUKE BLUE DEVILS

71.40%

HOUSTON COUGARS

71.40%

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

71.40%

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

71.40%

SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES

71.40%

VANDERBILT COMMODORES

71.40%

CINCINNATI BEARCATS

66.70%

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD

66.70%

OREGON DUCKS

66.70%

EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

62.50%

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

62.50%

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

62.50%

OKLAHOMA SOONERS

62.50%

SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS

62.50%

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROJANS

62.50%

TEMPLE OWLS

62.50%

UAB BLAZERS

62.50%

WYOMING COWBOYS

60.00%

You can access the complete list for College Football here – NCAAF Actual Cover Rates

 

NFL – Item #1

 A Game That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, of games that we will be watching from the sideline.

St. Louis at Arizona -3  – Total 41

As of this writing, there is still no clear indication as to who will be starting quarterback for either team, and that could be a blessing for both sides.

Feely was more than serviceable for the Rams last week, but we don’t put much into that Rams win.  We attribute that much more to the Saints, as usual, not showing up for random road games.  That said, Bradford has showed so little so far this season, I am not sure if the Rams are better off or worse off should he be able to play on Sunday.

For the Cardinals, there is a good chance they start John Skelton at QB, which may be an upgrade based on Kolb’s performance so far. The Cardinals came out swinging against the Ravens last week, but by the end of the game looked like a team ready to call it a season. Kolb has been horrible, and maybe a change at QB sparks the Cardinals here.

To us it’s impossible to play the Cardinals as 3 point Favorites against anyone right now, but the Rams on the Road do nothing for us either.

We will be watching this one from the sideline; well maybe not really watching, more like just getting Red Zone Channel updates on the off chance that one of these teams actually scores.

We are Projecting Rams 14 Cardinals 15

NFL – Item #2

Season to Date:

  • In Division Games the Favorite is 65.6% SU, ATS is 50.0%, and in the Totals the Under is 56.3%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 63.3% SU, Dogs are 53.4% ATS, and the Over has been the side 55.2%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 87.5% and 54.2% ATS, and the Over has been the side 54.2%

This weekend features 5 Division, 6 Conference, and 3 Non-Conference games.

NFL – Item #3

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.  From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

 NFL – Item #4

Overall for Week 8 Favorites were 9-4 to the Money Line, ATS was 6-6,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 9-4.

NFL – Item #5

There are some very strong historic trends in the NFL for this coming weekend that would indicate a strong bias towards Underdogs and  Overs.

You can read about it here.

Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NFL – Item #6

 

 

Season To Date Post Bye Week Results

ALL TEAMS COMING OFF BYE WEEK

CLOSING FAV A OR H

ML FAV

ML DOG

ATS FAV

ATS DOG

OVER

UNDER

AWAY FAVORITE

4

2

4

2

3

1

HOME FAVORITE

10

2

6

5

3

11

ALL

14

4

10

7

6

12

AWAY TEAM COMING OFF BYE WEEK

CLOSING FAV A OR H

ML FAV

ML DOG

ATS FAV

ATS DOG

OVER

UNDER

AWAY FAVORITE

2

2

2

2

2

0

HOME FAVORITE

5

1

2

3

2

6

ALL

7

3

4

5

4

6

HOME TEAM COMING OFF BYE WEEK

CLOSING FAV A OR H

ML FAV

ML DOG

ATS FAV

ATS DOG

OVER

UNDER

AWAY FAVORITE

2

0

2

0

1

1

HOME FAVORITE

5

1

4

2

1

5

ALL

7

1

6

2

2

6

Worth noting:

  • ML Favorites have been 77.8% in games where one of the teams is coming off a Bye
  • ATS when the Home team is coming off the Bye – Favorites have been 75.0%
  • Under has been 78.6% in games where one of the teams is coming off a Bye and there is a Home Favorite

 

How Team with a Week 7 Bye did in Week 8:

  • Bills 4 point Neutral Site Favorite against the Redskins -ML WIN – ATS WIN – UNDER
  • Bengals 1.5 Road Favorite against the Seahwaks – ML WIN – ATS WIN – OVER
  • Patriots 3 point Road Favorite against the Steelers – ML LOSS – ATS LOSS – UNDER
  • Giants 9.5 point Home Favorites against the Dolphins – ML WIN – ATS LOSS – UNDER
  • Eagles 3 point Home Favorite against the Cowboys – ML WIN – ATS WIN – UNDER
  • 49ers 9 point Home Favorite against the Browns  – ML WIN – ATS WIN -UNDER

Teams who had a Week 8Bye

  • Falcons on the Road against the Colts
  • Bears on the Road against the Eagles
  • Packers on the Road against the Chargers
  • Jets on the Road against the Bills
  • Raiders at Home against the Broncos
  • Bucs on the Road against the Saints

NFL – Item #7

If you haven’t seen it yet, you might want to review our Blog on the Pre and Post Bye Week records of NFL teams with individual  and aggregate statistics.

NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Stats By Team and Overall

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Falcons(F) at the Colts(F) – Falcons home against the Saints next week

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #8

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

NFL Item #9

Below is a list of teams the we have covered ATS at a rate of 55.0% or more season to date.

You can see the complete listing here – NFL Actual Cover Rates

ATS

TEAM

COVER RATE

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

100.00%

CINCINNATI BENGALS

85.70%

BUFFALO BILLS

71.40%

DETROIT LIONS

71.40%

GREEN BAY PACKERS

71.40%

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

71.40%

OAKLAND RAIDERS

66.70%

CAROLINA PANTHERS

62.50%

BALTIMORE RAVENS

57.10%

HOUSTON TEXANS

57.10%

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

57.10%

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

57.10%

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

57.10%

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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