Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/31/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/31/2011

  • Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

There are two Neutral Site games this week:

TCU and BYU play at Cowboy Stadium

Georgia and Florida play at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium

In Neutral Site Games this season, the Favorites are 76.9% Straight Up and 61.5% ATS, and the Over is 53.8%.

NCAAF – Item #2

An early season snow storm is expected to make it’s way up the Northeast Coast on Saturday.  The storm could bring several inches of snow and some gusty winds, so it’s worth keeping an eye on when handicapping games played in the affected region.

Weather Forecast

In case you didn’t know,  you can find a weather link for each game on our Game Snapshot Tab, on the lower right hand part of the display – NCAAF Game Snapshot

 

NCAAF – Item #3

Some injury information from CFT.

Injuries have Hokies down to third-string LB

Injury to cost Clemson’s leading rusher a start

Knee injury thins D-line depth for Nebraska

Hamstring tweak could sideline Gamecocks’ Ellington

Georgia’s leading WR doubtful against Florida

Suspensions give Jerry Rice Jr. a shot for UCLA

NCAAF – Item #4

Last week our trends that indicate Dogs, were very strong.

You can find them here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

NCAAF – Item #5

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won 71.7% against the Money Line, and 51.2% ATS, and the Totals are 50.7% to the Over.

In Non-Conference Games, the Favorite has won 76.7% against the Money Line, the Dog is 52.8% ATS, and the Under has been 51.7%.

This weekend features 48 Conference match-ups, of the 49 games scheduled.

NCAAF – Item #6

Overall for Week 8 Favorites were 36-14 to the Money Line, ATS was 25-25,  and in the Totals, the Overs were 26-23.

If you haven’t read it yet, some interesting data by weeks in the NCAAF, Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NCAAF – Item #7

Take some time to review the BCS rankings at the link below.

You might find a few teams in need of piling up some points over the next few weeks.

Week 9 BCS Rankings

NCAAF – Item #8

As of this writing there are no Favorite Flip situations in College Football.

NCAAF – Item #9

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Kansas(D) at Texas(F) – Texas  home against Texas Tech next week
  • Air Force(F) at New Mexico(D) – Air Force home against Army next week

NCAAF ITEM #10

Below is a list of teams the we have Projected ATS correctly at a rate of 70.0% or more season to date.

TEAM

ATS PROJECTED WIN %

MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS

100.00%

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

100.00%

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD

87.50%

BOISE STATE BRONCOS

85.70%

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

85.70%

TEXAS A&M AGGIES

85.70%

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

83.30%

MISSOURI TIGERS

83.30%

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN

83.30%

OREGON STATE BEAVERS

83.30%

RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

83.30%

SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

83.30%

UTAH UTES

83.30%

UTEP MINERS

83.30%

WASHINGTON HUSKIES

83.30%

AIR FORCE FALCONS

80.00%

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS

80.00%

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

80.00%

COLORADO BUFFALOES

75.00%

NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK

75.00%

INDIANA HOOSIERS

71.40%

NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES

71.40%

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES

71.40%

TULANE GREEN WAVE

71.40%

UAB BLAZERS

71.40%

Below is a list of teams the we have Projected the Total correctly at a rate of 70.0% or more season to date.

TEAM

TOTAL PROJECTED WIN %

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

100.00%

UTEP MINERS

100.00%

WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS

100.00%

MEMPHIS TIGERS

85.70%

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

83.30%

BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES

83.30%

EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES

83.30%

OREGON DUCKS

83.30%

WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

83.30%

WISCONSIN-MADISON BADGERS

83.30%

UNLV RUNNIN REBELS

80.00%

BUFFALO BULLS

71.40%

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

71.40%

LSU FIGHTIN’ TIGERS

71.40%

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

71.40%

NEVADA WOLF PACK

71.40%

UCLA BRUINS

71.40%

UCONN HUSKIES

71.40%

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

71.40%

NFL – Item #1

 A Game That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, of games that we will be watching from the sideline.

Detroit -3 at Denver

We are not sure what to make of either team at this point.

The Lions are coming off of two straight home losses, just as we were ready to buy into them.

They look like a different team without Best at running back, and Stafford is banged up again.

Denver, or maybe more accurately Tebow,  got a lot of national publicity this week for a team that played crappy for 55 minutes against a horrible Miami squad.

The Bronco’s game plan seemed to be to do everything possible to handcuff Tebow, until such time as they need a miracle, then let him go.

Even after Denver tied it up, Fox literally had his offense set up for a 50 yard game winning field goal with three dive plays, with no real attempt to move then ball down the field.

Unless Fox develops a game plan that tries to compliment Tebow’s strengths, you have to believe they are going to continue to stuggle.

The Lions need to win this game, but the Denver faithful will be fully behind their new quarterback.

Will the Lions show up and beat a team they are supposed to beat?

Did Coach Fox learn anything from the last 5 minutes of the game last week about how to maximize Tebow’s skill set?

How bad is Stafford really hurt?

God only knows, but Tebow seems to have a pipeline to the Big Guy, so don’t count the Broncos out here; just don’t count on them either.

System Projection Broncos 26 Lions 23

NFL – Item #2

Season to Date:

  • In Division Games the Favorite is 64.3% SU, Dogs are 51.9% ATS, and the Totals are 50.0%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 66.7% SU, Dogs are 50.9% ATS, and the Over has been the side 56.4%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 83.3% SU, ATS is 50.0%, and the Over has been the side 55.6%

This weekend features 4 Division, 3 Conference, and 6 Non-Conference games.

·NFL – Item #3

This week the NFL travels to Toronto, were the Bills will take on the Redskins.

For our purposes, this is a Neutral site game.

Canada has not treated the Bills too kindly over the past three seasons:

  1. 12/07/2008 – Lost 16-3 as a 2.5 point Favorite to the Dolphins
  2. 12/3/2009 – Lost 19-13 as a 3.5 point Dog to the Jets
  3. 11/7/2010 – Lost 22-19 as a 3 point Dog to the Bears

In the Canadian games to date that makes:

  • SU Favorites 2-1
  • ATS 1 Favorite, 1 Dog, 1 Push
  • Totals 0 Overs, 2 Unders, and 1 Push

Unsolicited Editorial Note:

It is worth noting, at least to us, that the NFL’s attempt to increase their international reach, with games in London and Toronto, occurs in cities and countries where sports gambling is alive and well and embraced.

Though, I believe that the NFL’s deal with Wembley Stadium calls for the sportsbooks located within the stadium to be closed during the game, there are scores of sportsbooks surrounding the facility.

In Canada, the country’s provincial governments themselves, sponsor and manage Pro-Line, which is a parlay based sports betting game.

Additionally, in both England and Canada, their residents are able to place bets online.

Wouldn’t it be great, that if in the “Land Of  The Free”, those who wanted to, could do that as well.

I hope I am wrong, but I don’t see it happening.

As far as sports betting goes, I think Nevada and the watered-down product that Delaware offers is it, for the foreseeable future.

NFL – Item #4

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.  From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

 NFL – Item #5

Last week there were a bunch of new faces at starting quarterback in the NFL.

So how did they do?

  • Redskins  John Beck – Lost SU and ATS – Over – Against Carolina
  • Denver Tim Tebow – Won SU and ATS – Under – Against Miami
  • Oakland Boller/Palmer – Lost SU and ATS – Against Kansas City
  • Vikings’ Christian Ponder – Lost SU – Won ATS – Over – Against the Packers
  • Rams A.J. Feely – Lost SU and ATS – Under – Against the Cowboys
  • Seahawks Charlie Whitehurst Lost SU – Won ATS or Push  – Under – Against the Browns

 NFL – Item #6

Overall for Week 7 Favorites were 8-5 to the Money Line, Favorites  were 7-6 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 6-7.

If you haven’t read it yet, some interesting data by weeks in the NFL, Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NFL – Item #7

How Team with a Week 6 Bye did in Week 7:

  • Arizona 4 point Home Dog against Pittsburgh -ML LOSS – ATS LOSS – OVER
  • Broncos 1 point Raod Favorite against Miami – ML WIN – ATS WIN -UNDER
  • Chiefs 3.5 Road Dog against Oakland – ML WIN – ATS WIN – UNDER
  • Chargers 1 point Road Favorite against the NY Jets – ML LOSS – ATS LOSS – OVER
  • Seahawks 3/3.5 Road Dog against Cleveland – ML LOSS ATS WIN OR PUSH – UNDER
  • Titans 2.5 Home Favorite against Houston – ML LOSS – ATS LOSS -OVER

Teams who had a Week 7 Bye

  • Bills in Toronto against Washington
  • Bengals on the Road against Seattle
  • Patriots on the Road against the Steelers
  • Giants at Home against the Dolphins
  • Eagles at Home against the Cowboys
  • 49ers at Home against Cleveland

NFL – Item #8

If  you haven’t seen it yet, you might want to review our Blog on the Pre and Post Bye Week records of NFL teams with individual  and aggregate statistics.

NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Stats By Team and Overall

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Vikings(D) at Panthers(F) – Both Teams looking ahead to Bye
  • Lions(F) at Broncos(D) – Lions looking ahead to Bye
  • Jags(D) at Texans(F) – Jags looking ahead to Bye
  • Saints(F) at the Rams(D)  – Saints Home against the Bucs next week
  • Cardinals(D) at the Ravens(F) – Ravens on the Road against the Steelers next week
  • Dolphins(D) at the Giants(F) – Giants on the Road against the Patriots next week

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #9

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

NFL Item #10

Below is a list of teams the we have Projected ATS correctly at a rate of 70.0% or more season to date.

TEAM

ATS PROJECTED WIN %

BALTIMORE RAVENS

83.30%

DENVER BRONCOS

83.30%

ST. LOUIS RAMS

83.30%

CAROLINA PANTHERS

71.40%

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

71.40%

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

71.40%

Below is a list of teams the we have Projected the Total correctly at a rate of 70.0% or more season to date.

TEAM TOTAL PROJECTED WIN %
CHICAGO BEARS 100.00%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 85.70%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 83.30%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 83.30%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 83.30%
ATLANTA FALCONS 71.40%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 71.40%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 71.40%

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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