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NCAAF and NFL Historic Cover Rates By Day Of The Week

We have reached the point in the Football season where there are game scheduled almost every night.

With that in mind, we thought it would be interesting to drill down see if there are any discernible differences in the outcomes of games played by day of the week.

We have provided the data grouped by both All History and Current Season for comparative purposes.

The observations shown below are for the Overall data, but it is worth your time to review the spreadsheets, since the drill down on situations such as AWAY/HOME FAVORITE, DIVISION/CONFERENCE/NON-CONFERENCE games, and AWAY/HOME offers some insightful information.

Some Observations from the Overall NCAAF All History Data:

  • There has an advantage to playing Dogs both Straight Up and ATS Sunday through Thursday
  • Games played on Fridays have shown an advantage to playing the Favorite
  • Games played on Monday and Tuesday have been skewed towards the Under
  • Games played on Fridays have shown an advantage to the Over

Some Observations from the Overall NFL All History Data:

  • Monday and Thursday have proved a significant advantage to playing Favorites both Straight Up and ATS
  • Games played on Saturdays have shown an advantage to playing the Dog both Straight Up and ATS
  • Games played on Saturdays have shown an advantage to playing the Over

Please note the following regarding the data and embedded spreadsheet:

  • The ALL HISTORY data set represents all games play in seasons 2006-2007 through 2010-2011
  • The CURRENT SEASON data set represents all games played in the current season through Week 7 in the NFL and Week 8 in NCAAF
  • All Pushes have been omitted
  • Only Regular Season games are included
  • All Neutral Site games have been omitted
  • The Baseline for NCAAF data is the corresponding information for Saturday games
  • The Baseline for NFL data is the corresponding information for Sunday games
  • The data is grouped by OVERALL, by FAVORITE TYPE, by GAME TYPE,  and by AWAY/HOME results
  • For Current Season Data there are relatively few games for Non-Baseline days
  • For NFL All History there was only one game played on Tuesday and Friday

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_BREAKDOWN – ALL HISTORY AND CURRENT SEASON NCAAF ANALYSIS BY DAY OF WEEK
  2. NCAAF_OVERALL_GRAPH – GRAPH OF NCAAF OVERALL ALL HISTORY
  3. NFL_BREAKDOWN – ALL HISTORY AND CURRENT SEASON NFL ANALYSIS BY DAY OF WEEK
  4. NFL_OVERALL_GRAPH – GRAPH OF NFL OVERALL ALL HISTORY

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On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window
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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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