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NFL Week 7 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Current Week Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Current Week Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of NFL trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titles, Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated.

Overview

Overall for Week 7 Favorites were 8-5 to the Money Line, Favorites  were 7-6 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 6-7.

Now, Season to date the Favorites are 71-32 against the Money Line, Dogs are ahead 49-51 ATS, and in the Totals the Over is 55-46.

It is worth your time to review the spreadsheet found below.

It shows some huge swings from Week 6 to Week 7 regarding ATS and Total outcomes, specific to Division and Non-Conference games.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 7-6 53.8%
  • ATS –  5-6   45.5%
  • Totals  6-7  46.2%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 62-41 – 60.2%
  • ATS –  49-49   50.0%
  • Totals  53-45  54.1%

S

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Current Week Line
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Current Week Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 7 Data: 

  • STD the Projected Success Rate for Totals has been 70.4% in Division Games
  • STD the Projected ATS outcomes has been 70.6% in Non-Conference Games
  • STD in Non Conference Games with an Away Favorite the Dog has been 63.6% ATS
  • In Week 7  Division Games the Dogs were perfect ATS
  • In Week 7 Division Games the Over was 66.7%
  • In Week 7  Conference Games the Favorites were 57.1% ATS
  • In Week 7 Conference Games the Under was 71.4%
  • In Week 7  Non-Conference Games the Favorites were 66.7% ATS
  • In Week 7  Non-Conference Games the Over were 66.7% ATS
  • STD in Division Games with an Away Favorite the Home Team is 63.6%
  • STD in Non-Conference Games with a Home Favorite the Home team is 92.3% to the Money Line
  • The ATS Public Consensus was down 12.2% from the prior week
  • The Total Public Consensus was up a huge 38.5% from the prior week

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted

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On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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