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NCAAF Week 8 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 8 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 8 Totals.

Overview

Overall for Week 8 Favorites were 36-14 to the Money Line, ATS was 25-25,  and in the Totals, the Overs were 26-23.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 38-12  76.0%
  • ATS –  27-22   55.1%
  • Totals  24-24 50.0%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line  282- 103  73.2%
  • ATS –  192- 182    51.3%
  • Totals  188- 185 50.4%

In cases where we are Projecting the Dog to win outright, the Dog continues to perform well ATS.

In Week 8, games in that role were 8-2, bringing the Season to date total to 43-25, or 63.2%.

You can read more about this, and other NCAAF trends that we follow here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 8Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 8 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 7 Data: 

  • ATS for Week 8 was split right down the middle at 50.0%
  • In Conference Games with an Away Favorite the Dog was 60.0% ATS a switch from Week 7 where there Favorite was the play in this role
  • In Conference Games with a Home Favorite the Favorite was 57.7% ATS a switch from Week 7 where the Dog was the play in this role
  • Season to Date Home Favorites are 76.5% to the Money Line
  • In Week 8 Home teams were 13.1% more successful ATS than the prior week
  • The ATS Public Consensus continued to hover around 46.0%
  • For Week 8 Dogs of  between 11.5-16 points were 9-1
  • Favorites of 24 or more points were 5-2
  • Much like we have seen in the NFL, the Totals were grouped in Ranges for Overs and Unders

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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