Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/24/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/24/2011

  • Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

Arizona Wildcats fired Mike Stoops last week, after starting the season 1-5.

The team’s defensive coordinator Tim Kish was named interim head coach for the remainder of the season.

The Wildcats host UCLA, and are a 4 point Favorite.

NCAAF – Item #2

Wisconsin, a 8 point Favorite, travels to East Lansing to face Michigan State.

Somehow, this will be the first time this season that the Badgers will be playing at an opponent’s Home stadium.

Their only other Road game to date was a Neutral site contest against Northern Illinois.

Michigan State will be without stud defensive lineman William Gholston, who was suspended for one game for his MMA tactics against Michigan last week.

Gholston is an impact player for the Spartans and we suspect his absence will be felt.

NCAAF – Item #3

LSU has suspended cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and running back Spencer Ware for Saturday’s home game against Auburn.

Mathieu has been flat out incredible so far this season, and Ware is the Tigers leading rusher.

LSU is a 22.5 Home Favorite, and should still handle Auburn easily, but this one might now be closer than it should have been.

NCAAF – Item #4

Vanderbilt will start Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, at QB this week against Army. Rodgers took over in the second quarter of last week’s lost to Georgia.  While ineffective passing, he was at the helm for all of Vandy’s 28 points in the losing effort.

NCAAF – Item #5

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

NCAAF – Item #6

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won 72.3% against the Money Line, and 51.5% ATS, and the Totals are at 50.0%.

In Non-Conference Games, the Favorite has won 77.3% against the Money Line, the Dog is 52.8% ATS, and the Under has been 51.7%.

This weekend features 46 Conference match-ups, of the 50 games scheduled.

NCAAF – Item #7

Overall for Week 7 Favorites were 34-16 to the Money Line, Underdogs were 25-24 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 29-20.

If you haven’t read it yet, some interesting data by weeks in the NCAAF, Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NCAAF – Item #8

Take some time to review the BCS rankings at the link below.

You might find a few teams in need of piling up some points over the next few weeks.

Week 8 BCS Rankings

NCAAF – Item #9

There are currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  From now on,, these scenarios will be tracked under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NCAAF – Item #10

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Army(D) at Vanderbilt(F) – Vandy home against Arkansas next week
  • Nebraska(F) at Minnesota(D) – Huskers home against Michigan State next week
  • Kansas State(F) at Kansas(D) – K-State home against Oklahoma next week

NFL – Item #1

Back By Popular Demand – A Few Games That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, on few games that we will be watching from the sideline.

Chargers -1.5 at the Jets

I keep waiting to see something from the Jets, and it never seems to materialize.

Sanchez looks lost, and the offensive guys around him aren’t helping.

Defensively, the Jets are better than most, but not a squad that opponent’s fear, perhaps except for Revis.

They are giving up 132 yards/game rushing, and  it’s hard to win consistently when that is the case.

They are 3-3 and could easily be 2-4.

I understand winning ugly, but the Jets take that to a new level this season, and that will just not work against good  teams.

But are the Chargers a good team?

Sure they are 4-1, but look who they beat:

Minnesota  1-5

Kansas City  2-3

Miami  0-5

Denver  1-4

I am surprised they didn’t try to schedule the Rams during their Bye week.

I know you can only play the teams on your schedule, but the scary thing is the Chargers failed to dominate in any of their wins.

Their best game might in fact have been their one loss to New England.

My sense is that the Jets win this week, but I wouldn’t put my cents on that.

System Projection Chargers 30 Jets 29

Steelers – 3.5 at the Cardinals

The Steelers are a team that we usually feel confident about when handicapping.

And by confident we mean, either going with or against them.

For the most part you know what you are getting with Pittsburgh, and we find them to be one on the most consistent teams from a match-up and game plan perspective.

The Cardinals have been woeful; The St. Louis Cardinals could probably give them a good game right now.

Kolb has looked like the Sanchez of the SouthWest.

When I saw this line at Pittsburgh -3.5, something just felt wrong about this game.

There are some intangibles; Cardinals are coming off a bye, Steelers have New England Next Week; Coast to Coast travel.

But when we match these two teams up, we can’t see it any other way then a Pittsburgh rout.

And whenever we are SO lopsided in our opinion,

and the line seems a bit short,

and the Public is in complete agreement with our assessment,

…..  it is the perfect time to pass on the game.

System Projection Steelers 24 Cardinals 20

NFL – Item #2

Season to Date:

  • In Division Games the Favorite is 68.0% SU, Favorite has won ATS 54.2% and the Under has been the side 52.0%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 68.0% SU, Underdog has won ATS 52.1% and the Over has been the side 60.4%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 80.0% SU, Underdog  has won ATS 53.3% and the Over has been the side 53.3%

·NFL – Item #3

In the NFL’s annual attempt to screw up the game we love, Chicago and Tampa are playing in London this week.

Over the past 4 seasons in these London games, The Favorite is 4-0 straight up, ATS is 2-2, and the Under is 3-1.

NFL – Item #4

There are currently a “Favorite Flip” situations in the NFL.  From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

Please note, that while we have included the Chicago vs Tampa Bay game in the spreadsheet, the results will not be counted towards the model since it is at a Neutral Site

 NFL – Item #5

There are a bunch of new starting quarterbacks this week in the NFL.

    • The Redskins will start John Beck against Carolina
    • Denver will start Tim Tebow against Miami
    • Newly acquired Carson Palmer will start for Oakland against the Chiefs
    • The Vikings’ Christian Ponder takes over, for the sure to be sulking Donovan McNabb, against the Packers
    • And possibly, A.J. Feely will fill in for Sam Bradford if he is a no-go against the Cowboys
    • And possibly, Charlie Whitehurst will start in place of the banged up Tarvaris Jackson against the Browns

If you include Matt Moore, who is in his second week as the starter in Miami, you could have as many as 7 fresh faces at quarterback this week. I don’t ever recall that many mid-season changes happening in the same week.

 NFL – Item #6

In Week 6, Favorites were 11-2 against the Money Line, Favorites  were 7-5-1 ATS, and the Totals were 10-3 to the Under.

If you haven’t read it yet, some interesting data by weeks in the NFL, Analysis Of Historic ATS and Total Cover Rates By Week For College Football and the NFL

NFL – Item #7

How Team with a Week 5 Bye did in Week 6:

  • Ravens 8 point Home Favorite to Houston – ML WIN ATS WIN
  • Browns 7 point Road Dog to Oakland – ML LOSS ATS PUSH
  • Cowboys 7 point Road Dog to New England – ML LOSS ATS WIN
  • Dolphins 7 point Road Dog to the Jets – ML LOSS ATS LOSS
  • Rams 14 point Road Dog to the Packers – ML LOSS ATS LOSS
  • Redskins 3 Home Dog to the Eagles – ML LOSS ATS LOSS

Teams who had a Week 6 Bye

  • Arizona at Home against Pittsburgh
  • Broncos on the Road against Miami
  • Chiefs on the Road against Oakland
  • Chargers on the Road against the NY Jets
  • Seahawks on the Road against Clevland
  • Titans at Home Against Houston

 

NFL – Item #8

If  you haven’t seen it yet, you might want to review our Blog on the Pre and Post Bye Week records of NFL teams with individual  and aggregate statistics.

NFL Pre and Post Bye Week Stats By Team and Overall

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Atlanta(D) at Detroit(F) – Falcons looking ahead to a Bye
  • Green Bay(F) at Minnesota(D) – Packers looking ahead to Bye
  • San Diego(F) at NY Jets(D) – Jets looking ahead to Bye
  • Kansas City(D) at Oakland(F) – Raiders looking ahead to Bye
  • Chicago(F) at Tampa Bay(D)  – Both Teams looking ahead to Bye * Neutral Site Game
  • Pittsburgh(F) at Arizona(D) – Steelers host the Patriots next week
  • St. Louis(D) at Dallas(F) – Cowboys on the Road against the Eagles next week

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #9

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

 General Note to Our Users #1

From time to time while you are on our site, you will encounter the following message.

When you see this, a data refresh is occurring.  This will happen about 8 times a day, and during each refresh you may encounter situations where tables appear to be empty.  It takes about 3 minutes for the full refresh to complete, then you should be able to proceed as normal.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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