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NFL Week 6 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 6 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 6 Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of NFL trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titles, Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated.


Overall for Week 7 Favorites were 11-2 to the Money Line, Favorites  were 7-5 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 10-3.

Now, Season to date the Favorites are 63-27 against the Money Line, Dogs are ahead 44-43 ATS, and in the Totals the Over is 49-39.

ATS, Favorites and Dogs are within norms, but some data we are working on, for a Blog post later in the week, suggests a bias for the Underdogs over the next four weeks in the NFL. Watch for the posting on Thursday or Friday.

We had mentioned last week to look for an under correction to occur, and one showed up big time in Week 6.

Things still need to even out a bit more with these Totals, but we would not look for Week 7 to be another 76.9% to the Under.



The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 8-5 61.5%
  • ATS –  6-6   50.0%
  • Totals  5-7  41.7%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 55-35 – 61.1%
  • ATS –  44-43   50.6%
  • Totals  47-38  55.3%


In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 5 Data: 

  • The Projected Success Rate for Totals has been 75.0% STD in Division Games
  • Overs in Conference Games are at 60.4% Season to Date
  • Money Line Favorites were 84.6% in Week 6
  • System Projected Success Rates in Non-Conference Games is 73.3% STD
  • Week 6 in Division Games the Favorite was 80.0% ATS
  • The ATS Public Consensus was down 10.9%

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted


On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window


We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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