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NCAAF Week 7 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 7 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 7 Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of College Footballs trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titled College Football Trends That We Follow * Updated.

Overview

Overall for Week 7 Favorites were 34-16 to the Money Line, Underdogs were 25-24 ATS,  and in the Totals, the Unders were 29-20.

The Projected data rebounded to mediocre, after a terrible Week 6 ATS.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 37-13  74.0%
  • ATS –  23-23   37.3%
  • Totals  26-21 55.3%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 244-91  72.8%
  • ATS –  165-160    50.8%
  • Totals  164-161 50.5%

One thing worth noting, in cases where we are Projecting the Dog to win outright, the Dog continues to perform well ATS.

In Week 7, games in that role were 9-4, bringing the Season to date total to 35-23, or 60.3%.

You can read more about this, and other NCAAF trends that we follow here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 7 Data: 

  • In the 4 Non-Conference games, the Dog was 3-1 ATS, and the Under was 3-1
  • Overall the Under was 59.2% for the week, and was 70.0% In Conference Games with an Away Favorite
  • Underdogs covered 12.6% more in Week 7 than in Week 6
  • Season to Date Home Favorites are 76.9% to the Money Line
  • In Week 7 Away teams were 18.6% more successful ATS than the prior week
  • The ATS Public Consensus was down 10.8% from the prior week
  • Favorites of more than 14 points were very profitable
  • Much like we have seen in the NFL, the Totals were grouped in Ranges for Overs and Unders

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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