Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/17/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/17/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

We wanted to take a minute to thank Gil Alexander, who hosts a very informative handicapping podcast, for the kind words he had to say about our site today.

You can find Gil on Twitter at @beatingthebook and his podcasts are available for listening  at the following links:

ITunes

PreGame

 

NCAAF – Item #1

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NCAAF Trends That We Follow.

NCAAF – Item #2

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won ATS 51.8% and the Over has been the side 53.1%

In Non-Conference Games, the Underdog has won ATS 52.3% and the Under has been the side 51.2%

This weekend features 46 Conference match-ups, of the 50 games scheduled.

NCAAF – Item #3

In Week 6, Favorites were 43-9 against the Money Line, Dogs were 32-20 ATS, and the Totals were 26-26.

9 out of the 20 Dogs that covers ATS, also won their game outright.

NCAAF – Item #4

Some Injury Status Updates From CollegeFootballTalk.com

NCAAF – Item #5

Ball State has been decimated with injuries, particularly on defense.  Last week Temple destroyed the Cardinals, 42-0.

This week Ball State goes on the Road to face the Ohio Bobcats.  We had the Temple passing offensive ranked at 109 and the Bobcats 48, so it would be our expectation that Ohio, a 14 point Home Favorite, should put up some points on the beat up Cardinals.

NCAAF – Item #6

Colorado is another team banged up, especially in the secondary.  Last week they got pounded by Stanford and they could be in for a repeat performance when they go on the Road to face the Washington Huskies.  The Huskies are averaging 35 PPG and Colorado is giving up 33.3 PPG.  We look for the Huskies in a hand ride here as a 15.5 point Home Favorite.

NCAAF – Item #7

There are currently a couple of “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  From now on,, these scenarios will be tracked under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NCAAF – Item #8

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

Thin week for “Look Ahead Games”.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Oklahoma(F) at Kansas(D) – Sooners have Texas Tech at Home next week

If you see any games that you feel might be worth adding to this list, please leave a comment or mention it on @GreyMatterStats.

NCAAF – Item #9

We mentioned this last week, but it is worth repeating.

We are at a point in the season where we can begin to look at both:

  • Individual team performance against the Money Line, ATS, and Total
  • How well our system has done at Projecting Outcomes for the individual teams.

To view how individual teams have fared against the Money Line, ATS, and Total for College Football, go to the following link: NCAAF Actual Cover Rates.

The display offers multiple select and sort criteria, across several time frames.

When reviewing how well our Projected data has performed, something we consistently find is the system does very well at forecasting some teams, and very poorly at forecasting others.

Please keep in mind, that knowing what teams we forecast poorly, is just as valuable as knowing which teams we forecast accurately.

We would highly encourage you to visit this section of our site if you are incorporating our Projections into your weekly handicapping; NCAAF Project Outcomes Success Rate.

Just as with the : NCAAF Actual Cover Rates, the display allows many different views of the data.

 

NFL – Item #1

Back By Popular Demand – A Few Games That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, on few games that we will be watching from the sideline.

Rams vs the Packers -14

Saw this posted by someone on Twitter, Win-less team of at least 0-4 that is off a bye and getting DD points. 21-2 ATS last 20yrs .

I suspect a bunch of smart money will side with the Rams, but I am not that smart.

I think there is a case to be made here for the Rams, but from what I have seen of the Packers so far, it’s just too hard to go against them, even laying 2 touchdowns.

Green Bay really impressed me with their comeback win on the Road over Atlanta.

They have a great stable of players, but that Atlanta game showed how well coached they are as well.

Line opened at 14 and has remained steady, even though we are showing 67.9% of the public on the Packers.

I could see this game 45-10 or 30-17, neither would surprise me.

If this game was to go north of 14, I may get an itch to take a harder look at the Rams, but I think I would be better off just putting some Lanacane on it and staying on the sideline with this one.

We Project the Packers winning 45-13.

49ers at the Lions -4

The Lions have played some good football so far this season, but was I the only one who less than impressed with them on Monday night?

They let a horrible Bear offense get within a half yard of a back door cover.

It was kind of hard to figure out how the Lions, who destroyed the Bears offensive line, weren’t winning that game by 30 points, even though their offense did little outside of a few big plays.

As for the 49ers, I think they forgot to tell Coach Harbaugh that they are supposed to suck.

They are one bad overtime loss from being undefeated.

I LOVE that he brought that Standford “we are gonna keep scoring until the final gun” mentality to the NFL.

It cost him leading receiver Josh Morgan against Tampa, but he sure covered the sh*t out of that game.

Can the Lions really go to 6-0?

Could the 49ers really be 5-1?

Will the 4 points come into play?

One of these teams is coming back to earth this week, I just can’t get a feel for which one that is.

We Project the Lions winning 31-24.

NFL – Item #2

  • Season to Date:
  • In Division Games the Favorite is 65.0% SU, Underdog has won ATS 52.6% and the Over has been the side 55.0%
  • In Conference Games the Favorite is 65.9% SU, Underdog has won ATS 53.5% and the Over has been the side 66.7%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite is 76.9% SU, Favorite has won ATS 53.8% and the Over has been the side 53.8%

·

NFL – Item #3

There is also currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.  From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NFL – Item #4

Matt Moore will start for the Dolphins this week at quarterback.

 NFL – Item #5

In Week 5, Favorites were 9-4 against the Money Line, Favorites  were 8-5 ATS, and the Totals were 9-4 to the Over.

4 out of the 5 Dogs that covers ATS, also won their game outright.

NFL – Item #6

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Philadelphia(F) at Washington(D) – Eagles looking ahead to a Bye
  • San Francisco(D) at Detroit(F) – 49ers looking ahead to Bye
  • Indy(D) at Cincinnati(F) – Bengals looking ahead to Bye
  • Buffalo(D) at New York Giants – Both Teams looking ahead to Bye
  • Dallas(D) at New England – Patriots looking ahead to Bye

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #7

The following teams are going off of a Bye Week.

  • Ravens 8 point Home Favorite to Houston
  • Browns 6.5 point Road Dog to Oakland
  • Cowboys 7 point Road Dog to New England
  • Dolphins 7 point Road Dog to the Jets
  • Rams 14 point Road Dog to the Packers
  • Redskins 1.5 Home Dog to the Eagles

NFL – Item #8

We have moved some of the trends that we follow to a separate Blog that you can find here, Some NFL Trends That We Follow.

NFL – Item #9

Please see NCAAF Item #8 for the detail on this, but you can find the corresponding NFL links as follows:

NFL Actual Cover Rates

NFL Project Outcomes Success Rate

 General Note to Our Users #1

From time to time while you are on our site, you will encounter the following message.

When you see this, a data refresh is occurring.  This will happen about 8 times a day, and during each refresh you may encounter situations where tables appear to be empty.  It takes about 3 minutes for the full refresh to complete, then you should be able to proceed as normal.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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