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NFL Week 5 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 4 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 5 Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of NFL trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titles, Some NFL Trends That We Follow * Updated.



In Week 5 Favorites were 8-5 ATS, and the Overs were 9-4 in the Totals.

Season to date, the Dogs are ahead 39-36 ATS, and in the Totals the Over is a huge 46-29.

Logic would dictate to look for a correction in the ratio of Overs to Unders, but this NFL season has been unique regarding scoring.

While it is our belief that there should be a bias towards the Under, it is hard to pull the trigger with what has been occurring.

The Projected Data was slightly under water for both the Money Line and ATS, but the Totals had a strong week.

So far from week to week the data has been up and down, and it would be our hope that we would begin to see it stabilize somewhat going forward.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 6-7  46.2%
  • ATS –  6-7   46.2%
  • Totals  9-4  69.2%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 47-30 61.0%
  • ATS –  38-37   50.7%
  • Totals  42-31  57.5%


In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 5 Data: 

  • The Projected Success Rate for Totals has been 78.9% STD in Division Games
  • Though Division, Conference, and Non-Conference Games are all 53.8% or greater to the Over, Conference Games are far and away the highest at 66.7%
  • Favorites were a strong 61.5% in Week 5
  • Home Teams in Non-Conference Games are 76.9% against the Money Line
  • The ATS Public Consensus was again huge at 69.2% Correct – We said this last week but we would expect this to drop dramatically at some point
  • We are seeing some definitive groupings as far as Total Results by Ranges of Totals – We will have more on this in our separate posting “Some NFL Trends That We Follow”

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window


We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats


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