Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > NCAAF Week 6 Data Review

NCAAF Week 6 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 6 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 6 Totals.

Also, we have moved our weekly review of College Footballs trends that we follow to a separate Blog, that will be titled College Football Trends That We Follow * Updated.

Overview

The Projected data performed terribly last week in College Football ATS and for the Totals, though somehow how we have a very strong 40-12 straight up.

The data indicated a heavy ATS Dog bias, and it turned out to be a big weekend for the Favorites who went 32-20 ATS.

It is worth noting, as we pointed out last week in Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/10/2011,  in NCAAF Week 5, the Dogs were 35-17 ATS, and we suggested that there would be a swing back toward Favorites in Week 6.

We are big believers in that when there exists an significant imbalance between ATS Dogs and Favorites or Overs vs Unders, that you should expect a correction.

As of Week 6, the current Season to Date ATS totals are Favorites 140 and Underdogs 144, a range we certainly consider normal.

We have gotten email this week, asking us why we are writing things in our Blog that contradict our Projected data.  We have said this several times, but we are providing information not picks,  and at time that information will be contradictory.

The poor  performance of our Projected Data this week highlights why you should never rely on it alone.  The Projections will have peaks and valleys throughout the season, and hopefully will get stronger as more data becomes available; but they are just one more piece of information to use.

Keep in mind that we are Projecting the outcome of every game, not just a few hand picked ones each week.  At the absolute  best, we strive for somewhere between 52.5 and 54.5% ATS.

We had mentioned this last week as well, but at this point in the season we would recommend that you make sure to review our NCAAF Actual Cover Rates and NCAAF Project Outcomes Success Rate in concert with the weekly game Projections.

When analyzing the Projected Score for a game, taking the time to compare it against the individual teams’ Projected Success Rates and  Actual Cover Rates provides valuable information when handicapping a game.

Remember, knowing which teams we forecast poorly, is just as valuable as knowing which teams we forecast accurately.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 40-12  76.9%
  • ATS –  19-32   37.3%
  • Totals  18-34  34.6%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 207-78  72.67%
  • ATS –  142-137   50.9%
  • Totals  138-140 49.6%

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 5 Data: 

  • The Favorites  were a very strong 61.5%, with Home Favorites 71.0%
  • Season to Date parity has set in ATS and for the Totals with very even distributions between Favorites/Dogs and Overs/Unders
  • Season to Date the only advantage worth mentioning is Home Dogs in Non-Conference Games at 55.1%
  • In Week 6 Home Teams were 63.5%, a 30.7% increase from the prior week
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct jumped 15.4% to 57.73% in Week 6
  • When the Line was greater than 20 the Favorites won ATS in all games

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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