Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/10/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/10/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

There is one Neutral Site game in College Football this weekend.

Oklahoma (Rotation #307) and Texas (Rotation #308) will play at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX.

NCAAF – Item #2

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Underdog has won ATS 56.9% and the Over has been the side 55.6%

In Non-Conference Games, the Underdog has won ATS 52.6% and the Under has been the side 51.9%

This weekend features 40 Conference match-ups, of the 52 games scheduled.

NCAAF – Item #3

In Week 5, Favorites were 33-20 against the Money Line, Dogs were 35-17 ATS, and Overs were 30-21 in the Totals.

It would be our expectation that that the ATS figures would swing back in towards the Favorites, in the current week.

NCAAF – Item #4

Florida’s starting quarterback John Brantley is out for this week’s game against LSU, due to an injury.

Florida head coach Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis have been noncommittal as to who will start.

In addition to Jeff Driskel, who finished the game for the Gators last week against Alabama, the Florida coaches have also suggested that true freshman Jacoby Brissett and redshirt freshman Tyler Murphy may get the nod.

We would be shocked if Driskel wasn’t given the start.

We would also be shocked, if any of the three potential starters don’t get overwhelmed by the Tigers’ defense.

Please note, that due to the quarterback injury this game has been re-forecast within our system.

NCAAF – Item #5

It appears that South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has finally seen enough of starting quarterback Stephen Garcia.

Garcia will be benched this week in favor of Connor Shaw.

Shaw, in limited action this Season, is 4 of 11 for a grand total of 29 yards and a QB rating of 58.5.

Though in small spurts he has looked like a player, Garcia has been a huge disappointment and we would suspect the move to Shaw will be permanent, baring an injury.

South Carolina is hosting Kentucky this week.  They opened as a 18.5 point Favorite, and now find themselves as much as a 21 point Favorite.

We think Kentucky keeps it close here.

Please note, that due to the quarterback change, this game has been re-forecast within our system.

NCAAF – Item #6

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  From now on,, these scenarios will be tracked under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NCAAF – Item #7

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Mississippi State(F) at UAB(F) – Bulldogs host South Carolina next week
  • Kansas(D) at Oklahoma State(F)  – Cowboys are on the Road next week against Texas
  • Kentucky(D) at South Carolina(F) – South Carolina on the Road against Mississippi
  • Syracuse(F) at Tulane(D) – Syracuse a Bye then West Virginia at Home

If you see any games that you feel might be worth adding to this list, please leave a comment or mention it on @GreyMatterStats.

NCAAF – Item #8

We are at a point in the season where we can begin to look at both:

  • Individual team performance against the Money Line, ATS, and Total
  • How well our system has done at Projecting Outcomes for the individual teams.

To view how individual teams have fared against the Money Line, ATS, and Total for College Football, go to the following link: NCAAF Actual Cover Rates.

The display offers multiple select and sort criteria, across several time frames.

When reviewing how well our Projected data has performed, something we consistently find is the system does very well at forecasting some teams, and very poorly at forecasting others.

Please keep in mind, that knowing what teams we forecast poorly, is just as valuable as knowing which teams we forecast accurately.

We would highly encourage you to visit this section of our site if you are incorporating our Projections into your weekly handicapping; NCAAF Project Outcomes Success Rate.

Just as with the : NCAAF Actual Cover Rates, the display allows many different views of the data.

 

NFL – Item #1

A Few Games That Could Bite You in the Ass, No Matter What Side You Are On

Some “non-in-depth” analysis, on 3 games that we will be watching from the sideline.

Titans vs Steelers

This game opened as high as 8, and has settled in with the Steelers as a 3 point Favorite.  Obviously, the uncertain status of Big Ben drove the Line down, but even at -3, who knows what to expect from the Steelers.  The Titans are coming off 3 wins in a row, although the last 2 were against Denver and Cleveland, who have shown little so far.   Hasselbeck has put up some decent numbers, and the Steelers defense has looked aged, at times this year.  Titans have a Bye next week; Steelers are almost in a must win, especially at Home, but how bad is Roethlisberger really hurt?    Twist my arm and I would take the points, twist it harder and I would tell you we missed a real good middle opportunity here.

We Project the Steelers winning 23-22.

Cardinals vs Vikings

This game opened at Vikings -3.5 and has been bet down to -2.5.  You could make the argument that the Cardinals, who are 1-3, could easily be 4-0, or 0-4.  They have been in games, but watching them, I never felt confident they were going to pull any of them out.  Last week, they lost a heart breaker to the Giants due more to the fact that they played soft defense, than because of an iffy call.  What can you say about the Vikings, other than McNabb is already in mid-season form.  This team has all the looks of a squad ready to reboot.  The Cardinals have a Bye next week, Vikings act like they are on a Bye every week.  I can’t see laying 2.5 here, and wouldn’t be thrilled about taking it either.

Our Projected Score has the Cardinals winning 21-20.

Eagles vs Bills

Eagles have been an awful second half team and the Bills have been a good one, for the most part.    The Eagles coughed up a 20 point lead to a non-prolific offense, “sort of led” by Alex Smith.  There is alot you can say right now about the state of the Eagles, and none of it is any good.  Though the Bills are coming off a “let-down” loss, they have at times looked like a “for-real-team”, and an offensive juggernaut; and a juggernaut is the last thing the Eagles defense wants to see these days.  Now add to that some pretty significant injuries, a suspect offensive line, and some crappy play calling, and of course that makes the Eagles a 2.5 point Road Favorite.  I know there are Bills doubters out there, and in the NFL when teams are desperate it usually means a win, but I can’t rationalize the Eagles as a 2.5 point Favorite here based on what we have seen from them over the past three weeks.  We’ll watch this one from the sideline, and when the game is over we will say to ourselves, “I knew the Bills would win”…or …”I knew the Eagles would win”.

We Project the Bills winning 24-17.

NFL – Item #2

  • Season to Date:
  • In Division Games the Underdog has won ATS 60.0% and the Over has been the side 53.3%
  • In Conference Games the Underdog has won ATS 57.1% and the Over has been the side 66.7%
  • In Non-Conference Games the Favorite has won ATS 58.3% and the Over/Under has been the side 50.0%

·

NFL – Item #3

There is also currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in the NFL.  As mentioned in NCAAF Item #1 From now on, these scenarios will be track under a separate on-going post which can be found here, When “Favorites Flip” – Season To Date * Updated.

NFL – Item #4

The Dolphins have a Bye this week, but announced  that starting QB Chad Henne is done for the year.

Backup Matt Moore will take over for Henne.

Until further notice, we will be incorporating  Matt Moore data into our Projections for the Dolphins.

 NFL – Item #5

The N.Y. Post is reporting the Jets center Nick Mangold will start against the Patriots.

His value to the Jets was never more apparent than on Sunday night, where without him anchoring the offensive line, the Jets were destroyed by the Ravens defense.

I don’t know if he will be at full strength, but whatever he has to give will be better than what they got against Baltimore.

NFL – Item #6

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Kansas City(D) at Indy(F) – Chiefs looking ahead to a Bye
  • Arizona(D) at Minnesota(F) – Cardinals looking ahead to Bye
  • Tennessee(D) at Pittsburgh(F) – Titans looking ahead to Bye
  • Seattle(D) at NY Giants(F) – Seahawks looking ahead to Bye
  • San Diego(F) at Denver(D) – Chargers have a Bye then on the road against the Jets/Denver looking ahead to Bye

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #7

Please see NCAAF Item #8 for the detail on this, but you can find the corresponding NFL links as follows:

NFL Actual Cover Rates

NFL Project Outcomes Success Rate

 General Note to Our Users #1

From time to time while you are on our site, you will encounter the following message.

When you see this, a data refresh is occurring.  This will happen about 8 times a day, and during each refresh you may encounter situations where tables appear to be empty.  It takes about 3 minutes for the full refresh to complete, then you should be able to proceed as normal.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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