Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > NFL Week 4 Data Review

NFL Week 4 Data Review

Each Wednesday during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 4 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 4 Totals.

Overview

It’s hard to believe we are at the quarter mile post of the NFL Season already.

With four weeks of Current Season date to review, we hopefully can begin to really zero in on some of the Lines and Totals.

In Week 4 Favorites were 11-5 against the Money Line, ATS was split 8-8, and the Overs were 9-7 in the Totals.

After a terrible Week 4 ATS, the Projected Data came back nicely.

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 9-7  56.3%
  • ATS –  11-5   68.8%
  • Totals  8-8  50.0%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 41-23 64.1%
  • ATS –  32-30   51.6%
  • Totals  33-27 55.0%

Some Notes on NFL Totals

  • For the first time this Season a total of greater than 47 went Under
  • When the Total has been less than 42.5, the Over has been 84.0%
  • When the Total has been between 42.5-47, the under has been 65.5%
  • Both Prime Time games went Over bringing the Season to Date tally to an amazing 9-1.

The picture below gives you a top-line breakdown of Week 4 in the NFL, as well as season to date data. You can view the full spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.

When The Projected Money Line Result is the Underdog – Look At The Dog ATS

If you read our post yesterday entitled “NCAAF Week 5 Data Review”, you might recall this exact scenario.

Season to date for the NFL it is also holding up at an impressive 64.3%.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Projected ML Result to “DOG”
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format


Total As An Indicator Of The Line Result

This is a twist on what we wrote about yesterday for College Football.

Instead of looking to see how the Line is as an indicator of the Total result, we are using the Total as an indicator of the Line result.

So far this early NFL Season, there are some very clear grouping of Line and Total Outcomes; as mentioned above, the very high percentage of Overs and Unders at certain Total ranges.

One of the things we like to do, is to look for even more finite filters to apply where we see the data “grouping”.

So far this Season where the Total was less than 42.5, the Underdog has been the side 73.1% of the time.

When the Total greater than 45, the Favorite has been the side 69.2% of the time.

It would be our expectation, that at some point in the season these percentages would adjust to a more balanced ratio, but for now they have been holding up.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Total Range to either 45.5-999 for the Favorite research or 0-42 for the Underdog research
  • Set the output to display in terms of Line which is the default
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format


In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 5 Data: 

  • The Projected data is 75.0% ATS in Conference games
  • The Projected data is 73.3% for Totals in Division games.
  • Overs have been strongest in Conference games at 67.6%
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct jumped 20.0% to 66.7% in Week 4 – We would expect this to drop dramatically for the current week

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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  1. Guest
    October 6, 2011 at 7:40 pm

    Very interesting blog. Great find.

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