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NCAAF Week 5 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 5 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 5 Totals.

Overview

The Projected Success Rates for the week were as follows:

  • Money Line 34-19  64.2%
  • ATS –  27-25   51.9%
  • Totals  27-24  52.9%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 167-66  71.7%
  • ATS –  123-105   53.9%
  • Totals  120-106   53.1%

The picture below gives you a top-line breakdown of Week 5 in College Football, as well as season to date data. You can view the full spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.


Projected Line Overlay of Between -20 and -13

This situation continues to hold up very well, with the Season to Date win rate now at 81.5%

As of this writing, there are 4 games in this role.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set P Line OL (Short for Projected Line Overlay) to Select Range, then set the Minimum Value to -20 and the Maximum Value to -13
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

When The Projected Money Line Result is the Underdog – Look At The Dog ATS

We had written about his a few weeks ago, and highlighted to it our Twitter followers over the weekend.

To be clear, the role here is to look at any Underdog ATS, where our Projected Data has them winning outright.

Season to Date, the Dog is now 60.5%  in this role.

We have gotten some questions as to how this differs from the point listed above, where you look for Dogs with the Projected Line Overlay of between -20 and -13.

Just to clarify:

  • There can be overlap between the two situations-If a team was a 5 point Underdog and we Projected them winning by 10 points outright, then it would fit both scenarios – Overlay -15
  • If a team was getting 17 points and we have them Projected to lose the game by only 3 points, then it would fit only the first scenario – Overlay -14
  • If a team was getting 10 points and we have them winning outright by 1 point, it would only fit the second scenario – Overlay -11

As of this writing, there are 8 games in this role.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Projected ML Result to “DOG”
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

Line As An Indicator Of The Total

Another powerful feature of the site, is the ability to look at multiple variables in concert.

One of the things we find from season to season, is that certain ranges of Lines can be good indicators of the Total result.

Season to Date in College Football, when the Line as been between 12 and 15 the Over has been the result 73.9%, , and when the Line has been between 15.5-17.5 the Under has been 71.4%.

In a previous entry we had written about how while overall Overs and Unders level out at about 50% each, there are definitive groupings that occur within ranges of Totals.

Historically, we have found that if you filter those Total ranges by certain Line ranges, you can find some hidden advantages.

We are not suggesting, that you play an Over just because the Line is 15, but we are saying that this can be another great piece of information to factor into your handicapping.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Line Range to 12-15 if researching the Over, or to 15.5-17.5  if researching the Under
  • Set the output to display in terms of Total
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 5Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 5 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 5 Data: 

  • The Dogs were a very strong 67.3% ATS in Week 5
  • For Week 5 Conference Games with an Away Favorite, the Over was 80.0% – 24.8% above the norm
  • Season to Date in Conference games the Dog has been 61.4%
  • Season to Date our overall Projections have been strongest in Non-Conference Games for ATS and Total
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct dropped 6.6% to 42.3% in Week 5
  • When the Line was between 1-3.5 the Dogs won ATS in all games
  • When the Total was greater than 61 the Over won in all games

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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