Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/03/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 10/03/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

There is one Neutral Site game in College Football this weekend.

Texas A&M(Rotation #159) and Arkansas(Rotation #160) will tee it up from Cowboy Stadium in Arlington, TX.

NCAAF – Item #2

Season to Date:

In Conference Games, the Favorite has won ATS 52.4% and the Over has been the side 53.7%

In Non-Conference Games, the Underdog has won ATS 50.7% and the Under has been the side 53.7%

NCAAF – Item #3

Nebraska is playing it’s first Big Ten game as a member of the Conference when they meet Wisconsin this weekend.

NCAAF – Item #4

New Mexico fired head coach Mike Locksley this week.  The Lobos were 2-26 straight up over the past 2-plus years, under Locksley.  Associate head coach and defensive coordinator George Barlo, will take over the head coaching job on an interim basis.  Don’t know much about him, other than he was the DC of a team the allowed 44.3/PPG last year, and 41.7/PPG this year.  Something tells us that we can expect more of the same from the Lobos.

New Mexico is a 2.5 point Home Dog to New Mexico State this weekend.

NCAAF – Item #5

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  Boston College at Home opened at a pick against Wake Forest, and now finds themselves as much as a 2.5 point Underdog.

Just FYI, we are not viewing Pitt in this role since we had them opening as an Underdog, but some Sportsbooks had Pitt initially favored against South Florida. Pitt is currently a 2.5 point Home Dog.

For an interesting read on the Season to Date Performance of “Favorite Flips” :

Season To Date When “Favorites Flip” The Home Team Has Been Perfect

Also, we have gotten a lot of questions regarding Opening Lines as they relate to the “Favorite Flip” role, that we have addressed in a separate Blog update that you can read here- A Quick Note About Our Opening Lines

NCAAF – Item #5

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Buffalo(D) at Tennessee(F) – Vols host Georgia next week
  • Oregon State(D) at Arizona State(F) – Arizona State at Home against Utah next week
  • Ball State(D) at Oklahoma(F) – Oklahoma on the Road against Texas next week
  • Kentucky(D) at LSU(F) – LSU at Home against Florida

If you see any games that you feel might be worth adding to this list, please leave a comment or mention it on @GreyMatterStats.

NFL – Item #1

Season to Date:

Any Total of 47.5 or greater has gone Over

When the Line was 8 or greater, the Under has been 6-2

NFL – Item #2

Here’s an interesting fact.

Season to date; the NFL Totals have gone Over. 28-18-2.

But if you break this down by game start time, there is a huge outlier to this data; Prime Time games currently represent 60% of the imbalance of Overs season to date.

  • Sunday Early Games – Over is 13-11-2
  • Sunday Late Games – Over is 8-6
  • Prime Time Game – Over is 7-1, with the only Under coming in this past Monday Night

NFL – Item #3

49ers coach Jim Harbaugh elected to keep his squad on the East Coast following their game with Cincinnati on Sunday.

They have been staying in Youngstown, OH prior to this weekend’s game in Philadelphia. Youngstown was chosen since it is the hometown of the DeBartolo family, who own the 49ers.

Obviously, the aim here to is avoid having to travel coast to coast in back to back weeks.

San Francisco is 3-19 straight up in Eastern Time zone games since 2003(and has sucked in the rest of the country as well).

We think that Jim Harbaugh is going to wind up being a tremendous NFL coach, and things such as this show that there is a new way of doing business in San Francisco.

Add into the equation that his brother John(current Ravens head coach and former long time Eagles assistant) has probably told the 49er coach a thing or two about Andy Reid football, and don’t be surprised if the big Underdog 49ers give the Eagles all they can handle this week.

NFL – Item #4

There are currently two “Favorite Flip” situations in the NFL.  The Rams opened as a Favorite and now find themselves a Home Dog to the Redskins,  and the Vikings and Chiefs opened as a pick, and now Kansas City is a small Home Dog.

As mentioned in the NCAAF section:

For an interesting read on the Season to Date Performance of “Favorite Flips” :

Season To Date When “Favorites Flip” The Home Team Has Been Perfect

Also, we have gotten a lot of questions regarding Opening Lines as they relate to the “Favorite Flip” role, that we have addressed in a separate Blog update that you can read here- A Quick Note About Our Opening Lines

NFL – Item #5

Season to Date:

In Division Games the Underdog has won ATS 60.0% and the Over has been the side 53.3%

In Conference Games the Underdog has won ATS 60.9% and the Over has been the side 71.4%

In Non-Conference Games the Favorite has won ATS 62.5% and the Over/Under has been the side 50.0%

NFL – Item #6

So far, for Week 4

  • The average Opening Total was 44.3, and the average for the Current Total is 44.0; meaning the totals were bet down an average of  .3
  • The average Opening Total was .2 higher than Week 3
  • It appears that at least for now, we have reach some sort of stability with Opening Totals and them not being bet up or down out of what we would expect the norm to be

NFL – Item #7

In the NFL, the only possible “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Washington(F) at St. Louis(D)  – Redskins are coming up on a Bye then have the Eagles at Home
  • Atlanta(F) at Seattle(D) – Falcons at home next week against the Packers – Though coming off a loss and playing a Seahawk team coming off a win, we don’t see it

For whatever it is worth, the two games listed in this section last week both went to the Underdog.

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

General Note to Our Users #1

From time to time while you are on our site, you will encounter the following message.

When you see this, a data refresh is occurring.  This will happen about 8 times a day, and during each refresh you may encounter situations where tables appear to be empty.  It takes about 3 minutes for the full refresh to complete, then you should be able to proceed as normal.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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