Home > General Information, NewsLetter, Projections, Trends > Season To Date – When “Favorites Flip” the Home Team Has Been Perfect

Season To Date – When “Favorites Flip” the Home Team Has Been Perfect

By far the most reaction we have gotten to anything we have written this football season, has been to our initial post and subsequent updates regarding the “Favorite Flip” scenario.

The reaction has run the gamut from;

“Thanks for the heads up”,

to

” you’d have to be an a**hole to lay 2.5 points when you could have gotten 2.5 points”.

First of all, we want to thank everyone who contacts us.

Your feedback is very much appreciated, and many times invokes changes to our site.

And to those who were “concerned” about laying 2.5 points in this role, we want to be clear that we are not suggesting you do that, or anything else.

Our site simply provides you access to data. And at times when we uncover something that we find interesting,  we point it out to our users.

We provide information, not picks, and hopefully that information is useful.

And to us it’s useful to know, that in every College and NFL Football game this season, where the Favorite switched from one team to the other,  the Home Team has won every game, straight up and ATS.

For anyone who hasn’t read the prior posts, we use the term “Favorite Flip” to define when a team that opened up as the Favorite, closed as the Underdog.

For example, if Team X opened as a 1.5 point Underdog then closed as a 1 point Favorite, it would fit the “Favorite Flip” situation.  In this example, the Line Movement would be -2.5 point, meaning the Line went down 2.5 points from where it opened.

Additionally, if a game opened as a pick, then the Away Team became the Favorite this would also meet our criteria for a “Favorite Flip”.

You can read the original post and see the supporting data here.

What Happens When Favorites Flip

At the time, the analysis showed that for College Football there was an advantage to playing Home Favorites in games where “Favorites Flipped”.

In the NFL, the data showed an advantage to playing the Home Team, regardless if they were the Favorite or the Underdog.

Season to date there have been 5 games in College Football and 6 games in the NFL that met our criteria of a “Favorite Flip”.

In all 11 games, regardless if they were they Favorite or Underdog, the Home Team has won straight up and ATS.

For College Football it is a relatively small niche, representing only a handful of games, but surprisingly in the NFL out of the 64 games, either scheduled or already  played through Week 4,  this scenario has been in play 8 times,  or for 12.5% of the games.

For the rest of the season will be providing a weekly update of games that meet the “Favorite Flip” criteria in the spreadsheet found below.

In addition to providing the statistics and history of the games involved, we will also be including any current week NCAAF and NFL matchups in this role.

Currently there is one game for College Football, and two in the NFL.

Obviously, determining when a “Favorite Flips” involves using an Opening Line, which can vary from Sportsbook to Sportsbook.

For a detailed explanation as to how our system selects the Opening Line it uses, please read the following:

A Quick Note About Our Opening Lines

As for right now, this trend is holding up. But as I am sure all of you reading this know, that could change in a heartbeat.

Use this indicator to help build a case for or against a game, not as the sole reason to play it.

One more thing we want to mention about this topic, and I will use last week’s Florida State vs Clemson game as an example; a game which Clemson won 35-30.

FSU opened as a 3 point Favorite, but closed as a 2 point Underdog.

Our projections had FSU winning the game the game 32-29, but in our weekly NCAAF update we alerted our users to the fact that this game was a “Favorite Flip” and that Clemson, as a Home Favorite in this role, might offer an advantage.

We got emails asking us why we were Projecting FSU to win, but pointing people to Clemson on our Blog.

Again we want to say,  we are not giving out any sides.

We are proving information, and at times that information may be contradictory.

It is up to you, the handicapper, to add the check marks to your plus and minus columns to determine who you like.

The worst thing you can do with our site, is to take any one piece of information and run with it.

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In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – STATS, HISTORIC AND CURRENT GAMES
  2. NFL_FAVORITE_FLIP_STD – STATS, HISTORIC AND CURRENT GAMES

***** PLEASE MAKE SURE TO SCROLL DOWN EACH WORKSHEET TO SEE THIS WEEK’S CURRENT GAMES *****

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On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats
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