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NFL Week 3 Data Review

Each week during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 3 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 3 Totals.

Overview

The picture below gives you a top-line breakdown of Week 3 in the NFL, as well as season to date data.  You can view the full spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.

After a strong first two weeks, our Projected Data performed terribly in Week 3, especially ATS.

  • Money Line 8-8  50.0%
  • ATS –  3-12  20.0%
  • Totals  8-8   50.0%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line  32-16  66.7%
  • ATS –  21-25  45.7%
  • Totals 26-19  56.8%

There are ebbs and flows to forecasting, but our Week 3 ATS numbers were off the charts bad.  Obviously, we will keep an eye on how these numbers perform in Week 4, and see if any adjustments are warranted going forward.

NFL Season to Date ATS

After two weeks of Favorite/Dog parity in the NFL, the Underdogs showed up big in Week 3 going 10-5,  or 66.7%.  Season to date we now have 20 Favorites and 26 Dogs.

One of the things that has historically held true, is that come season end there will be a close to even distribution of Favorites and Dogs.  When there is an imbalance favoring the Underdogs during the season, it is a good time to look hard at some Favorites; and vice-versa.

We are not suggesting that you manufacture reasons to play Favorites, but we are saying that as you handicap a game if you like Favorite, you might like them a little more right now.

For a breakdown of the Lines at each data point, click the graph below, then set the display to “By Line” and “As an Indicator of  Line Result”.

NFL Season to Date Totals

The Unders finally came in this week in the NFL, going 10-6 in Week 3.

As we wrote last week, it would be our expectation that we will see a correction from Overs to Unders, until such time as there is more of a balanced distribution season to date.  For the full year there have been 28 Overs and 18 Unders, or 60.9% to the Over.

For a breakdown of the Totals at each data point, click the graph below, then set the display to “By Total” and “As an Indicator of  Total Result”.

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Some Miscellaneous Week 3 Notes

  1. Dogs of 7 or more points were perfect ATS
  2. There were some very distinctive groupings to the Total Outcomes
  • Where the Total was less than 42.5 the Over was 3-1
  • Where the Total was between 42.5-46.5 the Under was 9-1
  • Where the Total was greater than 46.5 the Over was 2-0

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Division, Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 3 Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 3 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 2 Data: 

  • In Week 3 Home Dogs were 71.4%
  • STD – Home Dogs are 64.7%
  • STD – Our Projected Success Rate for Totals in Division Games is 73.8%
  • The ATS Public Consensus has been remarkably consistent from week to week, averaging 45.7%
  • The Public Consensus for the Totals being correct dropped dramatically by 22.9% from the prior week, to 43.8%

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • We need a few more weeks of NFL data before we can comparatively check it to other seasons or history
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted except from the BY_LINE and BY_TOTAL worksheets
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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