Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > NCAAF Week 4 Data Review

NCAAF Week 4 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Please note, that we have added two worksheets to the weekly spreadsheet.  BY_LINE, gives you the Favorites and Underdogs by all the Week 4 Lines, and BY_TOTAL  gives you the Overs and Unders by all the Week 4 Totals.

Overview

The picture below gives you a top-line breakdown of Week 4 in College Football, as well as season to date data. You can view the full spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.

There were 19 Conference games, so we can begin to put some more credence in those game-type figures.

It is worth noting that our Projected Totals were very strong for the Conference match-ups, averaging 72.2%; so we hope to see that continue into Week 5.

Overall the data held up with the Projected Success rates as follows:

  • Money Line 35-12  74.5%
  • ATS –  25-20  55.6%
  • Totals  27-19   58.7%

Bringing our season to date to:

  • Money Line 133-47  73.9%
  • ATS –  96-80 54.5%
  • Totals  93-82  53.1%

The picture below gives you a top-line breakdown of Week 4 in College Football, as well as season to date data. You can view the full spreadsheet at the bottom of this page.

Projected Line Overlay of Between -20 and -13

Last week we wrote about a situation involving Underdogs with a Projected Line Overlay of between -20 and -13 in College Football.

The Week 4 games were as follows:

  • Eastern Michigan(D) vs Penn State(F) – Projected Line Overlay -18.5 ML FAV  Win/ATS Dog Win
  • Virginia Tech(F) vs Marshall(D)  – Projected Line Overlay -17.5 – ML FAV Win/ATS Dog Win
  • Arkansas(D) vs Alabama(F) – Projected Line Overlay -14 – ML FAV  Win/ATS FAV Win

Season to date Underdogs are 16-4 or 80.0%  in this role, so it’s worth including any current games that meet this criteria in your handicapping this week.

We want to reiterate that, in our opinion, this type of application is one of the best ways to utilize the Projected Data.

To find any current week’s games that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set P Line OL (Short for Projected Line Overlay) to Select Range, then set the Minimum Value to -20 and the Maximum Value to -13
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

We would also encourage our users,  when they find something of interest on their own, to share it via the comments section or Twitter.

NCAAF Totals Where the Projected Total Overlay is 8 or Greater

Another use of the Projected data that we have been tracking through the first four weeks of the College Football season: cases where the Projected Total Overlay is 8 or greater.

In such cases season to date, the Over has been 64.5%, and in Week 4 was  8-2.

This is another situation worth keeping an eye on as you handicap this weekend’s games.

To find the current week’s games for this scenario:

Go to the SHARP – Data Mining Tool

  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set P Total OL (Short for Projected Total Overlay) to Select Range, then set the Minimum Value to 8 and leave the Maximum Value set to the default.
  • Make sure that the “Display Data In Terms Of”  is set to “Total”
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a new window in a printable format

Favorite Flip

This little niche is proving quite successful again this season, and is now 3-0.  If you are a regular reader, you probably know by now that in a game when the Favorite has flipped, history has shown that playing the Home team, especially if they become a Home Favorite, provides an advantage.  In Week 4 Clemson found itself in this role, after Florida State opened as a Road Favorite, and closed as the Dog.  Clemson won 35-30, covering the 2 point spread.  We will update you on any Favorite Flip” games in our “Things You Might Want to Know” update on Thursday.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week
  4. BY_LINE – Breakdown of Favorites and Underdogs for all the Week 4 Lines
  5. BY_TOTAL – Breakdown of Overs and Unders for all the Week 4 Totals

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 4 Data: 

  • Home Favorites are 82.0% against the Money Line
  • In Conference Games with an way Favorite, the Over is 65.2% – 9.4% above the norm
  • Away teams in Conference Games had a VERY strong week ATS
  • In Week 4 Conference Games our Projected Totals were correct 72.2%
  • Season to date our overall Projections have been strongest in Non-Conference Games
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct jumped 9.4% to 48.9% in Week 4

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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  1. T
    September 28, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    Very interesting and useful information. Appreciate you posting this. And, by the way your site is fantastic-best I have seen. Keep up the good work.

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