Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 9/26/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 9/26/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

It’s still early in the season, but at Week 4 if we see something worth mentioning, we will point it out to our users.

Season to date, when the system is Projecting that an Underdog will win a game outright, those Underdogs are 61.9% ATS.

Just so we are clear, what we are saying is that when the system indicates that it likes the Underdog to win outright, then that Underdog with the points, is the side to look at.

In modeling this data using a 5 year rolling history, this same approach netted a 62.3% win rate ATS.

It is important to note though, that in the Previous 2010/2011 Season, the Underdog in this role, only garnered a 52.2% win rate ATS; a substantial drop-off from both the rolling history and what we have seen so far from this Current Season. 

That said, we put this information out there so you can track it along with us.  We will revisit this number next week to see if it is maintaining or trending up/down.

To see the information breakdown and the current games that match the selection criteria:

  • Go to our SHARP Tool
  • Select “NCAAF”
  • For Projected ML Result Select “Dog”
  • Make sure that the “Display Data In Terms Of”  is set to “Line”  – The Default

NCAAF – Item #2

With 19 Conference games on the schedule this weekend, we also wanted to point out a scenario that over time has maintained an advantage for the Under.

The role involves Conference games where the Line is between 10.5 and 21, and the Total is 55 or higher.

In such games, the Under has been 56.2% over a five year history, 61.4% in the previous season, and a winner in it’s only occurrence so far this season.

There are currently 4 games that match this criteria, and the instructions on how to view them appear below.

  • Go to our SHARP Tool
  • Select “NCAAF”
  • For Conf/Div Games = Select “Conference Games”
  • For Line “Select Range” Set Min = 10.5 and Max = 21
  • For Total “Select Range” Set Min = 55 and leave the Max equal to the default
  • Set “Display Data In Terms Of” to “Total”

NCAAF – Item #3

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  Florida State opened anywhere from a 1.5-3 point Road Favorite against Clemson, and now finds themselves as much as a 2 point Underdog.  For NCAAF, when the Home team becomes the Favorite after being the Dog,  there has been an advantage to playing the Home Favorite ATS.  This scenario has played out twice this season, with the Home team winning ATS in both cases.  If you haven’t already, you can read more about this topic at the following link,  “What Happens When Favorites Flip?”

NCAAF – Item #4

At a User’s suggestion, we have added the next game on the schedule, to both locations where you find the Sort-Able Result: the Current Card of Data and the Team Profiles.  Unless you sort the data, by default it will be the top row displayed and will say “NEXT GAME” in the results fields.  This was added as a quick way to check for “sandwich games” or situations where a team may be looking ahead.

In NCAAF we have identified the following games at least worth a mention:

  • Central Michigan at Michigan State – Spartans on the road against Ohio State next week
  • Virginia Tech at Marshall – VT has Clemson at home next week
  • Florida at Kentucky  – Gators at home against Alabama next week
  • Nebraska at Wyoming – Huskers on the road at Wisconsin next week
  • Florida Atlantic at Auburn – Auburn on the road against South Carolina next week
  • LA Monroe at Iowa – Hawkeyes at Penn State – Bye Week between games

If you see any games that you feel might be worth adding to this list, please leave a comment or mention it on @GreyMatterStats.

NCAAF – Item #5

We mentioned this last week, but if you haven’t checked it out, go to , BeyondTheBets Conference Call .  It’s a synopsis of the top story lines in College Football with the focus being what is going on with teams, coaches and players. It’s a great, quick, informative read.

In fact, BeyondTheBets should absolutely been a part of your daily rotation of websites.

The guys at BeyondTheBets have given us some much appreciated attention, but that’s not why we suggest you visit them.

They offer one of the most informative and interesting handicapping sites around.

Also, their Twitter, @BeyondTheBets,  is not only chock full of information, but also very entertaining. Every day you will see interactions with sportsbook operators, national writers, and well-respected handicappers.  It’s well worth your time.

NFL – Item #1

We looked hard at providing some useful trends for the NFL Week 3.  We decided the most useful thing we could do is to “punt” for this week, and look to see if this weekend’s outcomes help us make better sense out of a somewhat unusual, NFL season to date.

Interestingly enough, our Projected data for the NFL has been very much on target.

Last week the Projections were 14-2 87.5% for the Money Line, 11-4 73.3% ATS, and 7-7 50.0% for the Totals.

Season to date, the Projections are 24-8 75.0% for the Money Line, 18-13  58.1% ATS, and 17-11 60.7%  for the Totals.

But we are not seeing the success of these Projections tie into specific trending, as we would expect.

So we are going to wait on one more week of Current Season data, and hopefully we will be able to report a trend or two that we are more comfortable with.

That said, in case you missed it, in our NFL Week 2 Data Review, we do address a topic regarding Underdogs of 3.5 or less that you might wanted to read as you review this weekend’s card.

NFL – Item #2

There are currently two “Favorite Flip” situations in the NFL.  Atlanta opened as a 1 point Road Favorite over Tampa Bay and are now a 2 point Underdog.  Arizona opened as a pick against Seattle and is now a 3.5 point Favorite. Note: a game going from a pick to the Road team being favored meets our criteria for a “Favorite Flip”.  History indicates the Home team in these situations, especially if the Home Team became the Favorite, after it flipped.  So Tampa and Seattle would be the teams for you to look at, though from our chair it’s very hard to make a case for Seattle, other than this one piece of information.

Again, make sure that you use this data to help you paint an overall picture of a match-up, not as the sole  reason for any play.

As mentioned earlier,  if you haven’t already read the detail on this topic, you can do so at the following link,  “What Happens When Favorites Flip?”

NFL – Item #3

For Week 2 the average for the Opening Total was 42.4, and the average for the Closing Total was 43.4; meaning the totals were bet up an average of 1.0.

So far, for Week 3 the average for the Opening Total was 43.7, and the average for the Current Total is 44.2; meaning the totals were bet up an average of  .5. – Also the average Opening Total was 1.3 point higher than Week 2

NFL – Item #4

In the NFL,  the only possible  “sandwich game”/”look ahead game” situations we see are:

  • Jets at Oakland – Jets on the Road Against Baltimore – Conversely, we see little chance of the Ravens looking past the Rams coming off their lost Week 2 loss.
  • Pittsburgh at Indy – Steelers on the road next week against Houston

If you see any games that you feel should be included on this list, please leave a comment or mention @GreyMatterStats.

General Note to Our Users #1

From time to time while you are on our site, you will encounter the following message.

When you see this, a data refresh is occurring.  This will happen about 8 times a day, and during each refresh you may encounter situations where tables appear to be empty.  It takes about 3 minutes for the full refresh to complete, then you should be able to proceed as normal.

General Note to Our Users #2

Rain is forecast for about the right third of the country over the next 48-72 hours, with the heaviest amounts expected in the mid-atlantic region.  In case you didn’t know, current weather information is available on from our site for all non-dome games.  From our Current Games Detail, all you have to do is click on the link that reads “Click Here To View Weather Report”, and you will be taken to a current forecast based on the zip code of the host stadium.

General Note to Our Users #3

Some of the notes we are providing this week are sourced from both the historic and current data available via our SHARP Data Mining Tool.

When we publish trends that we follow, we are not endorsing them as plays.

We never recommend any selections, but we do recommend that you include reviewing this kind of data as part of your overall handicapping process.

Our goal is to give our users information to help them to make more informed decisions, and to provide examples of how to utilize the resources available on our site.

We encourage all of our users to spend the time to learn the tools at your disposal.

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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