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NFL Week 2 Data Review

Each week during the NFL season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Obviously, it is still early in the season and the more data we have, the better.  But there are still some interesting observations to be made.

NFL Season to Date Totals

Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the Overs are an amazing 22-8-2,  or 73.3%.  Week 1, the Over was 12-3-1, 80.0%, and Week 2, 10-5-1, 66.7%.  This imbalance is even more unusual since historically the Unders have been top heavy the first Week of the NFL season.  It’s not any great revelation, but it would be our expectation that at some point, we should see a correction to a more balanced distribution of the Totals.  There is no way that season to date, the Over will stay at 73.3%.

For a breakdown of the Totals at each data point, click the graph below, then set the display to “By Total” and “As an Indicator of  Total Result”.

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Underdogs of 3.5 or Less

Season to date ATS, Dogs of 3.5 or less are 9-3-1, or 75.0%.  This range of Lines is an important group to focus on, since it represents 40.1% of all the games played so far this season; 13 of the 32 games.  For the previous season, and over the course of our rolling five years of history, the distribution of Favorites and Underdogs, when the Line was 3.5 or less, has been close to 50/50.  It would be our expectation that at some point, we should see more Favorites covering ATS when laying 3.5 or less points, until such time the distribution is more balanced.  It’s something you may want to keep in mind when handicapping games that fall into this role.

To quickly find this weekend’s games that are in the Line Range of 0-3.5 points:

  • Go to the SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NFL
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Line to Select Range, then set the MinValue to 0 and the Max Value to 3.5
  • Once the display is painted, you should see that the Underdog is 75.0% in these cases
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a new window in a printable format

Projected Outcomes Data

Season to date, our Projected Outcomes data has preformed well for the NFL.

Our Week 2 Projections were 14-2 87.5%  for the Money Line, 11-4 73.3% ATS, and 7-7 50.0% for the Totals.

Season to date the Projections are 24-8 75.0%  for the Money Line, 18-13  58.1% ATS, and 17-11 60.7% for the Totals.

Understanding how successful our Projection methodology has been is important, because it validates our application of that data.

When we show a Projected Final Score of Tennessee 27 Denver 17, we are not making a “Swami” like prediction on the outcome of the game.  What we are doing is using this forecast to see how far the data deviates from the actual line or actual total, to then look to make a case either for or against a side or a total.

To view a roster of how successful we have been so far forecasting by Team, click the graph below.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Division, Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 2 Data: 

  • Home Favorites are 76.2% against the Money Line
  • In Away Favorite situations the Dog is 60.0%
  • In Non-Conference Games STD, Projected Outcome have been correct 100.0% for ML, and 75.0% for ATS and Totals
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct increased slightly by 2.9% to 46.7% in Week 2
  • The Public Consensus for the Totals being correct increased 6.7% to 66.7% in a Week 2 top heavy with Over action from the Public

Please note the following regarding the data:

  • The data is for the Current Season of NFL Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
  • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
  • There are only 2 weeks of data
  • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
  • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
  • Last Week there were no Divisional Games
  • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
  • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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