Home > General Information, Projections, Site Features, Trends > NCAAF Week 3 Data Review

NCAAF Week 3 Data Review

Each Tuesday during the College Football season, we will be reviewing the prior weekend’s results, with a focus on any trends that we find noteworthy.

In addition, we will be updating the embedded spreadsheet found below, which provides an in-depth breakdown of many key indicators by Money Line, Line, and Total results.

Favorite Flip

Last week we pointed out another “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  Arizona State opened as a Road Favorite against Illinois, and was bet down to the Underdog role.  In these scenarios, history has shown that playing the Home team, especially if they become a Home Favorite, provides an advantage.  Illinois, as a 2.5 point Home Favorite, won the game 17-14.  Season to date, this scenario is now 2-0 in College Football..  This trend is even stronger when it occurs in the NFL. You can read about the details of the “Favorite Flip” scenario here.

As of Wednesday September 21, 2011 there exists one “Favorite Flip” game.  Florida State opened anywhere from a 1.5-3 point Road Favorite against Clemson, and now find themselves as much as a 2 point Underdog.

Finding these types of games is very easy on our site.  As you page through the Detail Section of the Current Games, look at the data elements “Open Favorite A/H” and “Current Favorite A/H”.  When there is a change, from Open to Current Favorite, the system highlights these fields in yellow as shown below.

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Project Line Overlay of Between -20 and -13

Last Friday, we alerted our Twitter followers to a situation that has been very favorable Season to Date.

It involved Underdogs with a Projected Line Overlay of between -20 and -13 in College Football.

Five games fell into this role, and the Underdog went 4-1.

The games were as follows:

Kansas(D) vs Georgia Tech(F) – Projected Line Overlay -19.5 – ML FAV Win/ATS FAV Win

Navy(D) vs South Carolina(F) – Projected Line Overlay -15 – ML FAV  Win/ATS Dog Win

Idaho(D) vs Texas A&M(F)  – Projected Line Overlay -15 – ML FAV Win/ATS Dog Win

UTEP(D) vs New Mexico ST(F) – Projected Line Overlay -16.5 – ML Dog Win/ATS Dog Win

Central Florida(F) vs Florida Intl(D) – Projected Line Overlay -16.5 – ML Dog Win/ATS Dog Win

So far this year, the Underdog is 82.4% in this role.

We probably say this too much, but our Projections should not be used as the sole factor in selecting a game.  They are just another handicapping tool, although a powerful one.

In our opinion, one of the best applications of the Projected Data is to use it to look for these types of Projected Overlay situations.

The Projected Line Overlay is essentially the system telling us how much it perceives the line to be off by; a great piece of information for a handicapper. And we especially like a situation where the overlay favors the Underdog since we are getting points, and not laying them.

If our Projections have a 17 point Underdog winning a game outright, it would not necessarily be our expectation that they would in fact win the game outright, but we sure would be looking hard at taking them ATS with the 17 points.

Projected Overlays are defined as follows:

Projected Money Line Overlay = 

Projected Score of Favorite – Projected Score of Underdog

  • A positive number would indicate the Favorite outright, and a negative number would indicate the Underdog outright

Projected Line Overlay = 

Projected Score of Favorite – Projected Score of Underdog – Current Line

  • A positive number would indicate the Favorite ATS, and a negative number would indicate the Underdog ATS

Projected Total Overlay =

Projected Score of Favorite + Projected Score of Underdog – Current Total

  • A positive number would indicate the Over, and a negative number would indicate the Under

In this particular scenario, we are focusing on games where the Projected Line Overlay is between -20 and -13.  Please keep in mind, that since we are dealing with negative numbers, that -20 would be the low end of the range and -13, the high end of the range.

To find any current week’s game that match this criteria, all you have to do is the following:

  • Go to our SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set P Line OL (Short for Projected Line Overlay) to Select Range, then set the Minimum Value to -20 and the Maximum Value to -13
  • Once the display is painted, you should see that the Underdog is 82.4% in these cases
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES”, and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a printable format

See the image to the right for an example.  

We want to be clear that we are not in the tout business, recommending games. Our site is there to allow you to utilize the information and formulate your own opinions.

We are only pointing out things that we hope are informative, and allow you to make better use of the data that we offer.

We would also encourage our users, that when they find something of interest on their own, that they share it via the comments section or Twitter.

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NCAAF Under When The Total is between 45.5-50

When we are handicapping a Total, in addition to analyzing the match-up, we like to see how the specific Total itself has done by viewing a distribution of Overs and Unders at the data point.

When we can see that a Total, or certain range of Totals, has gone Under more than 70.0%, we like to know that.

Year in and year out, while the aggregate Totals pretty much balance out 50/50 for the Overs and Unders, there exist clear groupings that constitute that overall 50/50 distribution.

For example, a range where the Total was between 54-60 might be Over 63%,  while a range where the Total was between 43-48 might be 68% to the Under.    When handicapping a game where the Total is 48.5,  if the match-up is pointing us in the direction of the Under, knowing that 48.5 has been Under 70% Season to Date, makes us like the Under that much more.

So far this year in College Football, when the Total has been between 45.5 and 50, the Under has been the side 72.4% of the time.  While it is still relatively early in the season, we mention it to our users as something to keep an eye on.

Below we have highlighted some of the many functions on our site, that not only allow you to research this type of data, but also make use of it.

1. NCAAF Analysis Graphs

  • Go to the NCAAF Analysis Graphs Section
  • Click “By Total”
  • Set the Season to Current Season
  • Set As Indicator of to “Total Result”
  • For some interesting reading, try looking at how the Total has been an Indicator of the Line Result or the Line has been an Indicator of the Total Result

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2. Select and Print Games

3. SHARP – Data Mining Tool

  • Go to the SHARP – Data Mining Tool
  • Set League to NCAAF
  • Set Season to Current Season
  • Set Total to Select Range, then set the MinValue to 45.5 and the Max Value to 50
  • Once the display is painted, you should see that the Under is 72.4% in these cases
  • Now click on “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” and the system will seek out all the games for this weekend that match this criteria and provide them in a new window in a printable format

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. BY_GAME_TYPE – Results by Conference, and Non-Conference games by week
  2. BY_AWAY_HOME – Results by Away team versus Home team by week
  3. BY_PUBLIC_CONSENSUS – Analysis of whether the Public Betting Consensus was correct or incorrect by week

Some observations we made when analyzing the Week 3 Data: 

  • Home Favorites are 84.1% against the Money Line
  • In Away Favorite situations the Dog is 55.6%
  • Home teams are 54.9% ATS
  • In Conference Games with an Away Favorite, the Under is 61.5%
  • In Away Favorite situations Projected Outcome is correct 60.5%
  • The ATS Public Consensus being correct dropped 13.8% to 39.6% in Week 3

Please note the following regarding the data:

    • The data is for the Current Season of College Football that we display on our site GreyMatterStats
    • The data is grouped by a week-ending date and a running season-to-date total
    • When a Money Line percent is greater than 75%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • When a Line or Total percent is greater than 60%, the cell is highlighted in green
    • We have added cells that show the current week differences for both the Season to Date and the Prior Week’s data
    • There are only 3 weeks of data–still a relatively small sample
    • In games that closed as a Pick, for our purposes the Home Team was the Favorite
    • All Pushes have been omitted
    • On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window

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We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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