Home > General Information, Site Features, Trends > Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 9/19/2011

Some Things You Might Want To Know For The Week Ending 9/19/2011

Just some miscellaneous information to help you out with this weekend’s games. FYI, we will be updating this section throughout the weekend as things of interest pop up, so be sure to check back.

NCAAF – Item #1

There is currently a “Favorite Flip” situation in College Football.  Arizona State opened as 1.5 point Favorite on the road against Illinois, and the game is now anywhere from a pick to Illinois -1.  For NCAAF, when the home team becomes the Favorite after being the Dog,  they have been 54.0%.  This scenario has played out last week in the UCONN/Vandy game, with Vandy becoming the home Favorite and winning ATS.  In the NFL, when this occurs the side to look at is the home team, regardless if they are the Favorite or the Dog.  In Week 1 of the NFL, there were three games where the Favorites Flipped, and the home team was 3-0.   Click here to read our analysis of “What Happens When Favorites Flip”

NCAAF – Item #2    

There are two Neutral site games on this weekend in College Football.

  • Colorado State vs Colorado at Invesco Field in Denver, CO
  • Wisconsin vs Northern Illinois at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL

So far this season for Neutral site games:

  • Favorite has won outright 66.7%
  • Underdog has won ATS 66.7%
  • Total has gone Over 66.7%
  • ***  That is not a typo – 66.7% is the figure for each situation ***

One note regarding the Wisconsin vs Northern Illinois game.  Wisconsin has been assigned the rotation number 131 and Northern Illinois 132, but depending on what site you happen to be looking at, Wisconsin may appear as either the top or bottom team when viewing the game. This is something that is unique to Neutral site games, and obviously can cause some confusion.  Please note that for the purposes of displaying and printing, GreyMatterStats will always order the teams by rotation number, so you will see that we display Wisconsin on top of Northern Illinois.  If you click here, you can read more about this in an article we wrote for NCAAF Week 1.

If you want to drill down  more on the Neutral site statistics: , go to our SHARP Tool, and select NCAAF for the Current Season for Neutral Site Games.

To see them:

  • Go to our SHARP Tool
  • Select “NCAAF”
  • Select “CURRENT SEASON”
  • Select “YES” for Neutral Site

NCAAF – Item #3

Each week, BeyondTheBets puts out a synopsis of the top story lines in College Football, entitled “Conference Call”.  It’s focus is what is going on with teams, coaches and players in College Football. It’s a great quick read, and you will probably find a piece of information or two to help you this weekend.

BeyondTheBets Conference Call

NFL – Item #1

Across five years of NFL history, when two teams playing that have both lost outright in their prior game, the Underdog is 60.3% ATS. Four games this weekend fall into this category.

To see them:

  • Go to our SHARP Tool
  • Select “NFL”
  • Select “LOST-01” from the ML WIN/LOSS for both the Away and Home Team  found on the right side of the display
  • Select “FIND CURRENT MATCHES” – A new window will open showing you the games

NFL – Item #2

For Week 1 the average for the Opening Total was 41.8, and the average for the Closing Total was 41.2; meaning the totals were bet down an average of .6.

So far, for Week 2 the average for the Opening Total was 42.4, and the average for the Current Total is 44.0; meaning the totals were bet up an average of  1.6.

NFL – Item #3

Interestingly, for the first time in the regular season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, there are no division games scheduled  for this coming weekend.

NFL – Item #4

Not much on the weather front to consider in the NFL today – The only hint of anything we see is slight chance of T-storms for Titans game.

 

Spreadsheet Data

NCAAF and NFL Trends Specific to This Weekend’s Games

Below you will find an Excel workbook that contains trends for this weekend’s NCAAF and NFL football, specific to the match-ups and roles each team finds themselves in.

Every one of these trends is 100%, so in the context of how the trend is framed, it has never lost.

Please note, that many of these cancel each other out.  For example, one trend might say that Team A is 6-0 to the Over while their opponent’s trend might say that they are 7-0 to the Under.

Some people love this kind of information, and others hate it.

Our position is, we only value it if a team has had continuity in their coaching staff over the time period of the trend.

And, like anything else  it just becomes one more data point in either making a case for or against a team or situation.

NCAAF and NFL Injury Status for This Weekend’s Games

At a User’s request, we have added NCAAF and NFL injury status data for this weekend’s games.

The information is presented in straight roster format by team, and includes circumstances, such as suspensions.

If you have a suggestion or something you would like to see, either on our site or on our Blog, please let us know.  If it makes sense to us and your data request is accessible within the architecture of our system,  we’d be happy to provide it.

In the embedded Excel workbook below,  you will find the following worksheets:

  1. NCAAF_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  2. NFL_CURRENT_WEEK_TRENDS – TRENDS FOR EACH MATCH-UP OR SITUATION
  3. NCAAF_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS
  4. NFL_INJURY – PLAYERS’ INJURIES OR CIRCUMSTANCES AND THEIR GAME DAY STATUS

* Please note that we also provide Injury updates in our Team Profile Section

NCAAF Team Profiles               NFL Team Profiles

On the Excel Web App toolbar of embedded spreadsheet, if you click the right-most button, View Full Size Workbook, the entire workbook will open for viewing in a new window.

***

We hope you find the information an asset to your handicapping and please visit our free site, GreyMatterStats, where we put this information at your fingertips.

If you find something of interest that you would like to share, please feel free to leave a comment or Tweet us  @GreyMatterStats

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  1. Guest
    September 16, 2011 at 2:02 am

    Anyone else think the under is a pretty good choice for the Auburn-Clemson game this weekend?

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